BANKS AND BANKING

Formidable barriers mean Fed’s rate rise is no-go next week

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Original article by Karen Maley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 16-Sep-16

Financial market traders have priced in a 15 per cent chance that the Federal Reserve will increase US interest rates in September 2016. Rates have increased just twice in the past when the odds of a rise have been 20 per cent or less. Unlike at present, inflation was a key issue on both occasions. Meanwhile, opinion is divided among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding the timing of a rate rise, while the central bank is unlikely to increase the cash rate prior to the presidential election in November.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED

Rate cuts ‘hurt some but overall we gain’

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 21 : 16-Sep-16

A report released by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that official interest rate cuts have a net gain for the nation overall, despite the impact on savers. The report argues that each $A1 reduction in home loan repayments results in an average increase of at least $A0.20 in expenditure on consumer durables. However, spending on durables rises by just $A0.04 on average for each $A1 increase in the interest income of net savers.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Fund managers to Fed: it’s time to raise rates

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 27 : 14-Sep-16

Financial markets have priced in a 22 per cent chance that the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in September 2016, while a December increase is rated a 57 per cent chance. PM Capital’s Uday Cheruvu expects the US central bank to tighten monetary policy at some point, noting that there are sufficient grounds for a rate rise. Meanwhile, Randal Jenneke of T. Rowe Price says Australian yield stocks – which bore the brunt of bearish sentiment on 12 September – are likely to fall further.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, PM CAPITAL LIMITED, T ROWE PRICE GROUP INCORPORATED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF JAPAN, BANK OF ENGLAND

Central bank fears spook markets

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Sally Rose, Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 12-Sep-16

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index has shed 4.4 per cent since the start of August 2016, and a 2.5 per cent downturn in the S&P 500 is expected to push the local market lower on 12 September. The US market was sold down after a Federal Reserve official suggested that the strength of the US economy could warrant an interest rate cut in the near-term. This prompted renewed support for the US dollar and a sharp rise in bond yields. Meanwhile, Nick Bishop of Aberdeen Asset Management expects an upturn in global financial market volatility in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Free kick for RBA’s new chief

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 19 & 27 : 7-Sep-16

Financial markets estimate that there is a 42 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate by the end of 2016. The general consensus of economists is that rates will remain on hold until 2017, after the central bank opted against easing monetary policy on 6 September. Expectations of a strong rise in GDP growth in the June quarter will strengthen the case for leaving rates on hold. Philip Lowe will shortly succeed Glenn Stevens as Reserve Bank governor.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Dollar hit by prospects of US interest rate hike

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 32 : 30-Aug-16

The Australian dollar fell to a four-week low in local trading on 29 August 2016, at around the $US0.7525 level. The currency was sold down amid indications that the Federal Reserve could increase US interest rates at least once before the end of the year, and potentially in September. A downturn in the spot price of iron ore also weighed on support for the commodity currency, which peaked at $US0.7756 earlier in the month. UBS forecasts that the dollar will test the $US0.70 level by the end of the year.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, QIC LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Stevens: we’re kidding ourselves

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 11-Aug-16

Glenn Stevens has warned that more investment is needed to stimulate economic growth. The departing governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said on 10 August 2016 that monetary policy cannot revive economic growth on its own, and fiscal reforms are also needed. It is also necessary to curb demand for debt among companies and households. Stevens will leave the RBA in September, and will be succeeded by deputy governor Philip Lowe.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

NAB forecasts more cuts in interest rates

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 10-Aug-16

National Australia Bank expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate by another 50 basis points in the next 12 months, to a record low of one per cent. The banking major anticipates rate cuts in both May and August 2017. Meanwhile, NAB’s latest monthly survey shows that both business sentiment and business conditions declined in July 2016. Likewise, the ANZ Bank-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment index fell by 2.8 per cent in the first week of August.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Cutting rates to get the $A lower brings risks to the economy

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 10-Aug-16

The Australian dollar has risen above $US0.76 since the Reserve Bank reduced the cash rate to a record low of 1.5 per cent on 2 August 2016. The currency has benefited from the fact that the local cash rate is still quite high relative to many countries, so further money policy easing may be necessary in order to put sustained downward pressure on the dollar. However, this strategy has economic risks, such as the potential to undermine consumer confidence. Indeed, the ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating fell by 2.8 per cent to 114.7 in the first week of August.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, TD SECURITIES, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Banks reject Turnbull demand

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Original article by Phillip Coorey, Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 4-Aug-16

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has criticised the major banks for failing to reduce their interest rates by the full 25 basis point reduction in the cash rate on 2 August 2016. Turnbull says the banks have a "social licence" and their CEOs should explain why the rate cut was not passed on to their customers in full. ANZ Bank CEO Shayne Elliott has conceded that banks should do more to explain their decisions on interest rates, but notes that wholesale funding costs are rising and the banks will be subject to new capital requirements.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN BANKERS’ ASSOCIATION