BANKS AND BANKING

Why investors and economists differ on odds of rate call

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 22-Sep-16

Financial markets consider that there is a near-even chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate in the first half of 2017. In contrast, the general consensus of economists is that there will be at least one more rate cut in the current monetary policy easing cycle. JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy expects the central bank to reduce the cash rate by another 50 basis points, while James Woods of Rivkin Securities suggests that there are limits to what monetary policy can achieve in terms of economic stimulus.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RIVKIN SECURITIES PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Investors face nervous wait ahead of rate calls

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Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 19-Sep-16

The upcoming monetary policy meetings of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan will be a focus for Australian investors in the week beginning 19 September 2016. Futures markets have priced in a 20 per cent chance that the Federal Reserve will increase the cash rate, and Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics says a rate rise in December is more likely. The minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia will also be released, and Philip Lowe will appear before Parliament for the first time in his new role of RBA governor.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BANK OF JAPAN, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Rate cuts ‘hurt some but overall we gain’

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Original article by David Uren
The Australian – Page: 21 : 16-Sep-16

A report released by the Reserve Bank of Australia suggests that official interest rate cuts have a net gain for the nation overall, despite the impact on savers. The report argues that each $A1 reduction in home loan repayments results in an average increase of at least $A0.20 in expenditure on consumer durables. However, spending on durables rises by just $A0.04 on average for each $A1 increase in the interest income of net savers.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Formidable barriers mean Fed’s rate rise is no-go next week

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Original article by Karen Maley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 16-Sep-16

Financial market traders have priced in a 15 per cent chance that the Federal Reserve will increase US interest rates in September 2016. Rates have increased just twice in the past when the odds of a rise have been 20 per cent or less. Unlike at present, inflation was a key issue on both occasions. Meanwhile, opinion is divided among Federal Reserve policymakers regarding the timing of a rate rise, while the central bank is unlikely to increase the cash rate prior to the presidential election in November.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED

Fund managers to Fed: it’s time to raise rates

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 27 : 14-Sep-16

Financial markets have priced in a 22 per cent chance that the US Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in September 2016, while a December increase is rated a 57 per cent chance. PM Capital’s Uday Cheruvu expects the US central bank to tighten monetary policy at some point, noting that there are sufficient grounds for a rate rise. Meanwhile, Randal Jenneke of T. Rowe Price says Australian yield stocks – which bore the brunt of bearish sentiment on 12 September – are likely to fall further.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, PM CAPITAL LIMITED, T ROWE PRICE GROUP INCORPORATED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, BANK OF JAPAN, BANK OF ENGLAND

Central bank fears spook markets

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Original article by Jacob Greber, Sally Rose, Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 12-Sep-16

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index has shed 4.4 per cent since the start of August 2016, and a 2.5 per cent downturn in the S&P 500 is expected to push the local market lower on 12 September. The US market was sold down after a Federal Reserve official suggested that the strength of the US economy could warrant an interest rate cut in the near-term. This prompted renewed support for the US dollar and a sharp rise in bond yields. Meanwhile, Nick Bishop of Aberdeen Asset Management expects an upturn in global financial market volatility in the December quarter.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Free kick for RBA’s new chief

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 19 & 27 : 7-Sep-16

Financial markets estimate that there is a 42 per cent chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate by the end of 2016. The general consensus of economists is that rates will remain on hold until 2017, after the central bank opted against easing monetary policy on 6 September. Expectations of a strong rise in GDP growth in the June quarter will strengthen the case for leaving rates on hold. Philip Lowe will shortly succeed Glenn Stevens as Reserve Bank governor.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORTGAGE CHOICE LIMITED – ASX MOC, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Dollar hit by prospects of US interest rate hike

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 32 : 30-Aug-16

The Australian dollar fell to a four-week low in local trading on 29 August 2016, at around the $US0.7525 level. The currency was sold down amid indications that the Federal Reserve could increase US interest rates at least once before the end of the year, and potentially in September. A downturn in the spot price of iron ore also weighed on support for the commodity currency, which peaked at $US0.7756 earlier in the month. UBS forecasts that the dollar will test the $US0.70 level by the end of the year.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, QIC LIMITED, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Stevens: we’re kidding ourselves

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 11-Aug-16

Glenn Stevens has warned that more investment is needed to stimulate economic growth. The departing governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said on 10 August 2016 that monetary policy cannot revive economic growth on its own, and fiscal reforms are also needed. It is also necessary to curb demand for debt among companies and households. Stevens will leave the RBA in September, and will be succeeded by deputy governor Philip Lowe.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

NAB forecasts more cuts in interest rates

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 10-Aug-16

National Australia Bank expects the Reserve Bank to reduce the cash rate by another 50 basis points in the next 12 months, to a record low of one per cent. The banking major anticipates rate cuts in both May and August 2017. Meanwhile, NAB’s latest monthly survey shows that both business sentiment and business conditions declined in July 2016. Likewise, the ANZ Bank-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment index fell by 2.8 per cent in the first week of August.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED