BANKS AND BANKING

Upbeat RBA signals end to cuts

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 3-May-17

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to leave official interest rates unchanged on 2 May was widely expected. However, an upbeat outlook for the domestic and global economies has prompted speculation that there will be no more rate cuts in the current monetary policy cycle. RBA governor Philip Lowe noted that the resource sector’s exports are rising while higher commodity prices are resulting in an increase in national income.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Rate hikes deferred by slow US growth

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Original article by Myriam Robin
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 1-May-17

The Federal Reserve is tipped to leave interest rates on hold in May 2017, in the wake of GDP data showing that US economic growth slowed to a three-year low of 0.7 per cent in the March quarter. Some 70 per cent of futures traders expect the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy in June. The Reserve Bank of Australia is also expected to leave rates on hold in May, and Paul Brennan of Citigroup says the central bank’s revised quarterly forecasts are unlikely to be unduly affected by data showing that inflation is within its target range.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, THINKMARKETS, REUTERS HOLDINGS PLC, SOCIETE GENERALE SA

Rise in inflation puts squeeze on households

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 27-Apr-17

Financial markets believe there is little chance of an official interest rate cut in May 2017, following the release of CPI data for the March quarter. The headline inflation rate was 2.1 per cent year-on-year during the quarter, compared with 1.5 per cent previously. The inflation rate is now within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent for the first time since late 2014. An increase in gas prices contributed to the rise in the inflation rate, which is now outpacing wages growth.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB

Inflation will decide the rate debate

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 26-Apr-17

Investors will be awaiting the release of Australia’s CPI data for the March 2017 quarter, which may influence the timing of any change to monetary policy. The headline inflation rate is widely tipped to have risen by 2.2 per cent year-on-year, which would be the first time that inflation has been within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3 per cent since the September 2014 quarter. However, the underlying inflation rate for the year to March is expected to be around 1.8 per cent.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW

Split emerges on interest rates forecast

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Original article by Jessica Sier
The Age – Page: 20 : 22-Dec-16

Westpac and ANZ Bank economists expect Australia’s cash rate to remain unchanged in 2017, while National Australia Bank suggests that there is potential for two rate cuts. Financial markets have responded to the release of the minutes of Reserve Bank’s December 2016 board meeting by lifting the chances of a rate rise in 2017 from 40 per cent to 55 per cent. The minutes show that the central bank is concerned about the residential property market and the level of household debt.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Central bank signals more hikes next year

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Original article by Harriet Torry
The Australian – Page: 30 : 16-Dec-16

The yield on 10-year US treasuries rose to 2.523 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated after the Federal Reserve indicated that it is likely to lift the cash rate by 75 basis points in 2017. The central bank had been widely tipped to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points in December 2016, but policymakers had signalled in September that rates were likely to rise just twice in 2017. Federal Reserve officials have cited the outlook for inflation and the improving labour market as factors that prompted only the second rate rise in the last decade. Originally published in "The Wall Street Journal".

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, JP MORGAN CHASE AND COMPANY, WELLS FARGO BANK, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, NAVY FEDERAL CREDIT UNION, MORTGAGE BANKERS’ ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA, FIRST PORTLAND MORTGAGE CORPORATION, ALASKA RETIREMENT MANAGEMENT BOARD, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

US hike won’t deter the RBA from following suit

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 14-Dec-16

The US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy statement is likely to attract more scrutiny than the outcome of its December 2016 meeting, as it is generally expected to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points. Meanwhile, the fall in National Australia Bank’s latest business conditions survey may strengthen the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to further reduce official interest rates, particularly in the wake of the higher-than-expected decline in GDP growth for the September quarter.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL OPEN MARKET COMMITTEE, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST LOUIS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Foreign banks fill lending void

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Original article by Scott Murdoch
The Australian – Page: 23 : 30-Nov-16

Data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority shows that the average mortgage balance has risen from $A244,000 in 2015 to $A255,000. However, the value of new home loans grew by only 0.1 per cent year-on-year in the September 2016 quarter. A recent move by Australia’s major banks to reduce their lending to residential developers has also seen the value of offshore banks’ lending to local developers rise from $A1.49bn to $A2.65bn in the last year. Meanwhile, data from the Housing Industry Association shows that sales of new detached homes and apartments fell by 8.2 per cent and 9.2 per cent respectively in October.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, HOUSING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION LIMITED, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD

OECD urges interest rate hikes in 2017

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Original article by Jacob Greber
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 29-Nov-16

The OECD states in its latest global economic outlook that the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to begin increasing official interest rates in late 2017. It also argues that the prospect of rate rises in the US will allow the RBA to act without any concern about putting upward pressure on the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the OECD forecasts that Australia’s economic growth will rise toward three per cent in 2018, while it concludes that there is still scope for the Federal Government to increase spending on infrastructure projects.

CORPORATES
ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Iron, coal rebound to lift rates

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Original article by David Rogers, Barry FitzGerald
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 29-Nov-16

Coal and iron ore are currently trading at prices that are significantly above the forecasts made in the Australian Government’s May 2016 Budget. Based on current prices, the nation’s export earnings in 2016 will be about $A80bn higher than in 2015. Tim Toohey of Goldman Sachs says this should be sufficient to avert the risk of Australia’s credit rating being downgraded. Financial markets believe that there is also now a better-than-even chance of an increase in the cash rate by the end of 2017.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BLOOMBERG LP