BUDGET – AUSTRALIA

No longer a low-debt country

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Original article by Greg Brown, Matthew Cranston, Lachlan Leeming
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 1-Apr-26

Former NSW premier Mike Baird notes that Australia’s state and territory governments now account for about half of the nation’s total public debt. Baird contends that the states need to be more accountable for the nation’s growing debt; he argues that treasurers should issue a fiscal statement ahead of their annual budgets outlining the consequences of their spending decisions for the coming 10 years, rather than simply the four-year budget cycle. Meanwhile, federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers has declined to make a commitment to produce net saving in the May budget, amid growing speculation that it will feature new government spending measures in response to the oil shock and cost-of-living pressures.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Budget bottom line improves but is still bright red

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Original article by Shane Wright
The Age – Page: Online : 17-Dec-25

The federal government’s Mid-Year Economic & Fiscal Outlook is expected to include a revised 2025-26 budget deficit of $36.8bn. This compares with the government’s forecast of a $42.2bn deficit ahead of the federal election in May. The MYEFO is also expected to show that the cumulative budget deficit over the next four years will be $143.5bn, down from the pre-election forecast of $151.9bn. Government revenue has been boosted by a range of factors, including a surge in the gold price, higher-than-expected iron ore prices and an increase in personal income tax.

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Australian Made welcomes unprecedented level of support

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Original article by
AuManufacturing – Page: Online : 1-Apr-25

The Australian Made Campaign has welcomed additional funding of $20m in the federal government’s budget. Amongst other things, this funding will allow the organisation to launch a new campaign to encourage more Australians to buy locally made products, and assist more local manufacturers and producers to obtain Australian Made certification. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Industry Minister Ed Husic have noted in a joint statement that research by Roy Morgan in 2024 found that more than 90 per cent of Australians have a preference for buying locally-made products.

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AUSTRALIAN MADE CAMPAIGN LIMITED, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, SCIENCE AND RESOURCES

Net migration to fall to 225,000

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Original article by Rhiannon Down
The Australian – Page: 5 : 26-Mar-25

The federal government’s budget papers show that net overseas migration is expected to fall over the forward estimates period. Net overseas migration peaked in 2022-23 following the re-opening of Australia’s international borders after the pandemic. The Treasury has forecast that annual net overseas migration will fall to 225,000 in 2026-27 and remain at a similar level in the following two financial years. The budget papers also reveal that managing unlawful non-citizens who were released from immigration detention in the wake of a High Court ruling will cost about $1.9bn in 2025-26.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Foreign buyers to be banned from purchasing existing homes

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Original article by Remy Varga
Herald Sun – Page: Online : 26-Mar-25

The budget papers show that the federal government will impose a two-year ban on foreigners buying established homes, with the policy slated to take effect from 1 April. The budget has allocated $5.7m for the Australian Taxation Office to enforce the ban, while the ATO will be given $8.9m to crack down on ‘land banking’ by foreign buyers. The government will also expand the Help to Buy shared equity scheme for home buyers, and provide eligible construction industry apprentices with grants of up to $10,000 as part of its strategy to address the skills shortage that is contributing to the housing crisis.

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AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE

Conservative commodity price forecasts offer revenue windfall

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 27 : 26-Mar-25

The budget papers show that the Treasury is continuing to adopt a conservative approach to commodity price forecasts. The budget’s revenue forecasts are based on expectations that the iron ore price will fall to $US60 per tonne at port by the end of March 2026; the price of the steel input is currently trading at around $US100 per tonne. UBS recently forecast that the iron ore price will remain within a range of $US90 to $US100/tonne for the next five years. The Treasury’s forecasts for other key commodities such as coal and LNG are also significantly below current prices.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Tariff war impact ‘modest’: Treasury

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 2 : 26-Mar-25

The budget papers show that Australia is now expected to record economic growth of just 1.5 per cent in 2025, compared with forecasts of two per cent growth in the 2024 budget and 1.75 per cent growth in the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook in December. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has conceded that the Trump administration’s tariffs policy will have a slight impact on Australia’s economic growth. The Treasury’s modelling suggests that the combined direct and indirect impact of the tariffs on the Australian economy by 2030 is likely to be modest.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

$17b tax cut sparks poll fight

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Original article by Phillip Coorey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 26-Mar-25

Shadow treasurer Angus Taylor has accused the federal election of an election bribe after it used the 2025 budget to announce a tax cut. The cut will see the 16 per cent tax rate, which applies to workers earning between $18,201 and $45,000, reduced to 15 per cent from 1 July 2026, with the rate then being cut to 14 per cent from 1 July 2027; all up, the cuts will save workers in that earning bracket $536 a year and will be worth $17.1 billion over five years. Taylor said the Opposition would not support the proposed tax cuts, while the budget forecasts a deficit of $27.6 billion for this financial year, increasing to $42 billion in 2025-26.

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ALP’s fiscal reckoning

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Original article by Geoff Chambers, Matthew Cranston
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 25-Mar-25

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says the federal budget is in much better shape than when Labor took office in May 2022. He adds that tonight’s budget will help to "finish the fight against inflation" and ease the cost-of-living crisis. The budget papers are expected to show that gross debt will total $940bn in 2024-25, which equates to about 36 per cent of GDP; this compares with the forecast of 35.2 per cent in the 2024 budget. Chalmers has emphasised Labor’s economic credentials, noting that it has delivered two surpluses in its first term and reduced the former Coalition government’s debt by $177bn. However, the budget will be in deficit for 2024-25, and Chalmers has conceded that it is unlikely to return to surplus for at least a decade.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Chalmers’ budget update locks in extra $25bn of unavoidable expenditure

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Original article by Jack Quail, Geoff Chambers
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 17-Dec-24

Treasurer Jim Chalmers says that although global economic volatility is weighing on the federal budget, Labor has delivered two surpluses and lower debt since taking office in May 2022. Meanwhile, the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook on Wednesday will feature some $25.1bn worth of additional government spending; this will include $16.3bn for increased welfare payments, childcare subsidies and cost of living relief. The government describes this as ‘automatic spending increases’, while Finance Minister Katy Gallagher has flagged $8.8bn of ‘unavoidable spending’. Independent economic Chris Richardson refutes suggestions that some expenditure cannot be avoided.

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AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF FINANCE