BUSHFIRES – ECONOMIC ASPECTS – AUSTRALIA

Bushfires likely to impact Australian retailers, analysts say

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Dominic Powell
The Age – Page: Online : 9-Jan-20

Bryan Raymond of Citigroup says the bushfires crisis is likely to have a near-term impact on major retailers, as the smoke blanketing large cities will reduce foot traffic and some stores in bushfire-affected areas have closed temporarily. Hardware and outdoor equipment retailers are expected to be among the hardest hit, although Raymond notes that they may receive a boost as the nation rebuilds after the disaster. He adds that there is unlikely to be much impact on the sales of grocery giants Coles and Woolworths.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, COLES GROUP LIMITED – ASX COL, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, BUNNINGS GROUP LIMITED, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN

Rate cut odds shorten as bushfires hit economy

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Adam Creighton
The Australian – Page: 14 : 9-Jan-20

The prospect of an official interest rate cut in February has increased from 38 per cent to almost 60 per cent in the wake of the bushfires crisis. Katrina Ell of Moody’s Analytics says the odds of a rate cut had already been high, while she warns that agriculture, tourism, household spending and productivity are likely to be particularly hard hit by the disaster. Meanwhile, Capital Economics’ analysis suggests that a sharp fall in tourist numbers and farm production could reduce economic growth by about 0.1 per cent in the March quarter.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S ANALYTICS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Wild firestorms to trigger $700m in insurance losses

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 13 : 7-Jan-20

Australia’s insurance industry is expected to be hard hit by the bushfires, with some estimates suggesting that the total cost of claims could top $700m. The Insurance Council of Australia has advised that the industry has received more than 6,000 bushfire-related claims since September, with the bulk of them having been submitted between November and 3 January. S&P Global Ratings says insurers could ultimately receive more than 10,000 bushfire-related claims.

CORPORATES
INSURANCE COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Economic cost of bushfires estimated at $2 billion and rising

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jessica Irvine
The Age – Page: Online : 7-Jan-20

Terry Rawnsley of SGS Economics & Planning estimates that the bushfires will reduce national gross domestic product by about 0.15 per cent in 2019-20. He adds that the economic cost to bushfire-affected regions will be within the range of $1.1bn to $1.9bn. Meanwhile, Shane Oliver of AMP Capital says the bushfire crisis is likely to reduce national economic output by between 0.25 per cent and 1 per cent, while economist Saul Eslake still expects the federal government to deliver a Budget surplus for 2019-20.

CORPORATES
SGS ECONOMICS AND PLANNING PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Death toll from New Year’s fires up to eight, and rising

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Bo Seo, James Fernyhough, Tom McIlroy
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 2-Jan-20

Seven people have died in the New South Wales bushfires since 31 December, while a man in Gippsland in Victoria has also been reported as having died in the fires there. The NSW Rural Fire Service has advised over 175 homes have burned down on the NSW south coast since 30 December, while over 150 fires continue to burn in NSW and Victoria. Total insured losses from the current bushfire season are approaching $300 million, while the Insurance Council of Australia has stated the NSW government’s ’emergency services levy’ is a deterrent to people and businesses taking out insurance. Western Australia had six fires burning at alert level on the afternoon of 1 January, South Australia was dealing with 52 incidents, while six fires were burning at ‘watch and act’ level in Tasmania.

CORPORATES
NEW SOUTH WALES RURAL FIRE SERVICE

Economy at risk of hit from flames

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Greg Brown
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 23-Dec-19

Australian Industry Group CEO Innes Willox says the bushfire crisis could result in negative GDP growth for the December quarter, following weak growth in the three months to September. Willox adds that sectors such as tourism and retail in particular are likely to be hard hit. National Australia Bank’s chief economist Alan Oster warns that the bushfires will further adversely affect consumer sentiment, although he says growth in the public sector is likely to prevent the economy from contracting in the December quarter. Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg stresses that it is too soon to estimate the economic impact of the bushfires.

CORPORATES
THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION