BUSINESS – AUSTRALIA

PM’s pitch as business rebounds

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Original article by Adam Creed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 12-Jul-17

National Australia Bank’s latest business survey shows that there was a month-on-month improvement in sales, profits and trading conditions in June 2017. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who addressed a business forum in London on 11 July, cited the data as proof that the Australian economy is growing and has not been unduly affected by a fall in mining investment. He attributed the continued resilience of the domestic economy to factors such as Australia’s stance on free trade. Shadow treasurer Chris Bowen argues that low wages growth is the main issue of concern for workers.

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Business Confidence down in June to 111.8 driven by declines in the Retail and Electricity industries

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 5-Jul-17

Business Confidence in Australia fell 2pts (-1.8%) to 111.8 in June, according to the Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. Business Confidence declined on the back of falling expectations of the Australian economy, with fewer businesses expecting "good times" for the economy in both the short-term and the long-term. Some 46.9% (down 6.3ppts) of businesses expect "good times" for the economy over the next year and 49.6% (down 0.9ppts) expect "good times" for the economy over the next five years. Meanwhile, 46% (up 5.2ppts) of businesses expect "bad times" for the economy over the next year and 42.5% (up 2.4ppts) expect "bad times" for the economy over the next five years. Roy Morgan Research CEO Michele Levine says the back-to-back declines for Business Confidence over the past two months has seen Business Confidence dip below the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence rating for the first time since early March.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Business Confidence gives soft ‘thumbs down’ to Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jun-17

Business Confidence in Australia fell 2.8pts (-2.4%) to 113.8 in May, according to the Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. The fall in Business Confidence came during the month Treasurer Scott Morrison handed down a Federal Budget which included plans to increase taxation on Australian banks and coincided with the Australian All Ordinaries falling 186.3pts (-3.1%) to 5,761.3. The business specific financial indicators drove this month’s fall in Business Confidence back to the pre-Budget March rating of 113.8. In May 44.4% (down 4.3ppts) of Australian businesses expected to be "better off" financially this time next year, compared to 22.6% (up 2.9ppts) that expected to be "worse off" – a net negative movement of 7.2pts. Also fewer Australian businesses, 39% (down 3.2ppts), said the business is "better off" financially than a year ago while 32.9% (up 3.6ppts), said the business is "worse off" – a net negative movement of 6.8pts.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Business Confidence was up in April before the Federal Budget

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-May-17

Business Confidence in Australia rose 2.8pts (+2.5%) to 116.6 in April 2017, according to the Roy Morgan Business Single Source survey. The rise in Business Confidence coincided with the All Ordinaries Index gaining 43.8pts (+0.7%) to 5,947.60 during the month and strong near-record monthly trade surpluses of over $A3bn in the months leading into April. The increase in Business Confidence came before last week’s Federal Budget, which appeared to have a negative impact on Consumer Confidence – the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating fell 2.6% to 109.4 following the Budget. Business Confidence was boosted in April by improving sentiment about the year ahead. In April, 48.7% (up2.7ppts) of Australian businesses expected to be "better off" financially this time next year, while 19.7% (down 0.4ppts) expected to be "worse off". In addition, a majority of Australian businesses, 52.8% (up 2.7ppts), expected "good times" for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 40.0% (down 6.1ppts) expected "bad times" – a net positive gain of a significant 8.8ppts.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX

Business Confidence up in March; but low confidence sees Barnett Government thrown out

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 12-Apr-17

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence rose 2.4% to 113.8 in March 2017. The rise in Business Confidence coincided with the All Ordinaries Index gaining 142.8pts (+2.5%) to 5,903.8. However, the continuing low Western Australian Business Confidence contributed to the election loss for former premier Colin Barnett. WA has consistently had the lowest Business Confidence of any State since the end of the mining boom in mid-2015. A record high 43.3% (up 3.4ppts) of businesses say they are "better off financially" than a year ago while just 28.6% (down 2.2ppts) say they are "worse off", a net positive gain of 5.6ppts. In addition, 50.1% (up 4.4ppts) of businesses expect "good times" for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 46.1% (down 0.8ppts), expect "bad times" – a net positive gain of 5.2ppts. Meanwhile, 50% (up 0.8ppts) expect "good times" for the economy over the next five years, while 41.8% (unchanged) expect bad times.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX

Business Confidence down in December to 114.1 (down 2.2%) after negative Australian GDP figures released

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jan-17

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence fell 2.2% to 114.1 in December 2016. The fall in Business Confidence occurred even as the Australian All Ordinaries rose during December – mirroring strong rises in US indices following the victory of Donald Trump in the Presidential Election. The All Ordinaries ended 2016 at 5,719.1 (up 216.7pts (+3.9%) from November 30). This month’s fall in Business Confidence means Business Confidence is now below the 6-year average (116.6) but still above the final ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating for 2016 of 113.4. Businesses are less confident about their prospects over the year ahead, with net expectations of business performance over the next 12 months down 3.3ppts to 27pts in December, and net views of whether the next 12 months will be a "good/bad time to invest" now 18.2pts (down 2.3ppts).

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan Research comments on the fall in Business Confidence in December

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Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 9-Jan-17

Business Confidence fell slightly in December after three straight months of increases – down 2.6pts (-2.2%) to 114.1. The fall in Business Confidence came after Donald Trump secured an unexpected victory in the US Presidential Election in November while in early December the ABS announced Australia’s GDP had decreased 0.5% in the September quarter – the first contraction in Australian GDP for over five years. Both Australia and the US face a continuing problem of high real unemployment and under-employment: In the US (over 20% according to President-elect Trump); and in Australia the latest Roy Morgan November employment estimates show Australian real unemployment of 1.199 million (9.2%) and under-employment of 1.1 million (8.4%). These figures show that the Reserve Bank of Australia should still be cutting Australian interest rates in 2017 (now at 1.50%) rather than thinking about raising them.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

Commodity prices surged 40pc in 2016

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Original article by Geoff Winestock
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 4-Jan-17

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s commodity price index rose 84 per cent in Australian dollar terms in 2016. Manufacturing is also in good shape, with the Australian Industry Group’s performance of manufacturing index being at 55.4 per cent in December 2016. In agriculture, prices declined about five per cent in 2016.

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THE AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRY GROUP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine’s comment on the rise in Roy Morgan November Business Confidence

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Original article by Michele Levine, Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Dec-16

Business Confidence increased for the third straight month, up by 0.5pts (+0.4%) in November to 116.7. This is the highest Business Confidence has been since the Federal Election in July when the Turnbull Government was returned with a majority of only one seat. Analysing the movement of Business Confidence across the States in November shows a strong increase in Queensland being the main driver of this month’s increase – now clearly above the national average along with a slight improvement in Victoria while Tasmania continues to have the highest Business Confidence of any State. In contrast Business Confidence is virtually unchanged in Australia’s largest State of New South Wales and is down significantly in the mining State of Western Australia – now clearly the lowest of any State. Business Confidence in South Australia also fell for the second straight month following the State’s widespread blackout in late September and is now in line with the national average. In terms of industries, the most confident industries in November were the Retail trade industry heading into the most important time of the year over the Christmas-New Year’s sales period, Accommodation and food services which also traditionally benefits from the Summer holiday period and Public administration, safety and security – all of these industries were more than 10% above the national average.

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED

Business Confidence up slightly in November to 116.7 (up 0.4%); highest since Federal Election

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Original article by Roy Morgan Research
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Dec-16

Roy Morgan Research’s Business Confidence rose 0.4% to 116.7 in November 2016. The small rise in Business Confidence occurred as the Australian All Ordinaries ended November at 5,502.4 (up 100.0pts from October 31). This month’s small rise in Business Confidence means Business Confidence is now just above the 6-year average (116.6) and above the current ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating of 115.4. Businesses are increasingly confident about their prospects over the year ahead, with net expectations of business performance over the next 12 months up 10.3ppts to 30.3pts in November and net views of whether the next 12 months will be a "good/bad time to invest" now 20.5pts (up 2.3ppts).

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ROY MORGAN RESEARCH LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ