Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 17-Apr-24

In March 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 98.0 (down 3.5pts since February) as the index fell back into negative territory despite the Reserve Bank leaving interest rates unchanged. Business Confidence is now 13.2pts below the long-term average of 111.24). However, Business Confidence is up 4.4pts since March 2023. Driving the index lower in March was less confidence about the performance of the Australian economy. Now 43.9% (down 3.7ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the economy over the next year, while just 38.9% (down 4.3ppts) expect ‘good times’ over the next five years. In contrast to the economy more broadly, businesses have grown significantly more confident about their own prospects over the year ahead, with 49.6% (up 4.8ppts) expecting to be ‘better off’ this time next year; this is the highest rating for this indicator since February 2022. The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for March are based on 1,605 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 21-Feb-24

In January 2024, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 93.2 (up 2.1pts since December). This was the second consecutive monthly increase in Business Confidence, and the first time the index has increased for two straight months since early last year. However, despite the increase, Business Confidence has now spent a record 12 consecutive months below the neutral level of 100; this is the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index, which dates back to 2010. Business Confidence is also now 18pts below the long-term average of 111.2, and down 3.2pts since January 2023. Businesses remain concerned about the performance of the Australian economy, with 59.5% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 56.7% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 42.3% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while only 25.0% say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 17.3% points. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for January are based on 1,609 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 24-Jan-24

In December 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 91.1 (up 5.3pts since November). The rebound in Business Confidence came after the RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% in its final meeting for the year in early December. Business Confidence has now spent a record eleven consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index dating back to 2010. Business Confidence is now 20.1pts below the long-term average of 111.2. Businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 64% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 59% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 42.8% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while only 25.4% say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 17.4% points. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for December are based on 1,497 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Dec-23

In November 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 85.8 (down 4.6pts since October). Business Confidence has now spent a record 10 consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index dating back to 2010. Business Confidence is now 25.5pts below the long-term average of 111.3. Businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 64% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 61% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 37.1% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to only 27.0% that say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 10.1% points and still the only index in positive territory. The Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for November are based on 1,519 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 15-Nov-23

In October 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 90.4 (up 3.3pts since September). Business Confidence has now spent a record nine consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory in the history of the index dating back over a decade to 2010. Business Confidence is now 21.1pts below the long-term average of 111. A majority of businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 56.5% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year, while 58.2% expect ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year, with 40.1% saying they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to only 29.2% that say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 10.9% points and the only index in positive territory.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 18-Oct-23

In September 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 87.1 (down 7.6pts since August). This is the lowest Business Confidence since September 2020, when Victoria was in an extended lockdown and New South Wales was enduring significant COVID-19 outbreaks. The Business Confidence survey was conducted after the RBA left interest rates unchanged for a third straight month in September at 4.1%. However, there were renewed concerns about inflation during September, with average retail petrol prices hitting a record high. Business Confidence has now spent eight consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory since October 2020 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. A majority of businesses are worried about the performance of the Australian economy, with 55.2% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year and 63.1% expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next five years. Nevertheless, businesses remain relatively positive about their own prospects over the next year; 38.3% say they will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while only 30.5% say they will be ‘worse off’ – a positive net rating of 7.8% points and the only index in positive territory. The pressure that high inflation and rising interest rates are placing on consumer spending habits is clear when one considers the Retail industry has the lowest Business Confidence of all at only 43.6, and more than halving from a year ago, down 44.1pts (-50.3%) from a year ago. This is an all-time record low reading of Business Confidence for the Retail industry heading into the most important retailing period of the year. The just released ARA-Roy Morgan pre-Christmas forecasts predict total pre-Christmas retail sales of $78 billion (up 0.4% on a year ago), and a seasonally adjusted figure of $66.8 billion.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Original article by Roy Morgan
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 13-Jun-23

In May 2023, Roy Morgan Business Confidence was 90.3 (up 0.1pts since April). The Business Confidence survey was conducted after Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered the Federal Government’s Budget in early May, but before the RBA raised interest rates by 0.25% to 4.1%. Business Confidence has now spent four consecutive months below the neutral level of 100, the longest stretch in negative territory since October 2020 during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Business Confidence is now 21.9pts below the long-term average of 112.2. Now 40.2% (up 1.5ppts) of businesses expect the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, while 25.1% (down 2.6ppts) expect the business will be ‘worse off’. Meanwhile, 46.3% (up 5.8ppts) say the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest in growing the business’, while 47% (down 4.7ppts) say it will be a ‘bad time to invest in growing the business’. However, only 38% (up 0.6ppts) of businesses expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months, while 61.2% (up 1.1ppts) expect ‘bad times’.

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ROY MORGAN LIMITED