BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Lynas stranded by energy mess

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian – Page: 13 & 19 : 26-Nov-25

Lynas Rare Earths has advised that its production will be about one-third lower in the December quarter due to electricity supply problems at its cracking and leaching plant in Western Australia. The $800m plant is located in Kalgoorlie, which has been affected by intermittent power outages for some time, and Lynas says the outages have become more frequent and longer during November. Lynas is now considering off-grid options for the plant, such as diesel fuel and gas; it is also building a 46-megawatt hybrid power station at its Mount Weld rare earths mine.

CORPORATES
LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED – ASX LYC

Insatiable US demand to buoy Australian beef

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Original article by Cecile Lefort
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 19-Nov-25

Australia exported a record $1.6bn worth of beef to the US in the September quarter. Analysts expect US demand for Australian beef to remain strong, despite the Trump administration’s move to reduce the tariff on beef from rival exporters such as Brazil. Angus Gidley-Baird from Rabobank says this will reduce Australia’s competitive advantage, given that the nation was already subject to a lower tariff on beef exports; however, he notes that the tariff on Brazilian beef will still be higher.

CORPORATES
RABOBANK AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Forrest-backed Greatland loses $1b on guidance

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Original article by Mark Wembridge
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 30-Jul-25

Greatland Resources has downgraded its 2025-26 production forecast just one month after listing on the Australian sharemarket. The gold miner had previously expected to produce up to 340,000 ounces of gold in the current financial year, but this will now be within the range of 260,000 to 310,000 ounces. MD Shaun Day has attributed the downgrade to Greatland’s "conservative approach" to guidance. The company’s shares fell 22 per cent to $5.36 on Tuesday, compared with an issue price of $6.60 in the recent IPO. Greatland’s investors include Wyloo, the private company of Andrew and Nicola Forrest.

CORPORATES
GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GGP, WYLOO METALS PTY LTD

MinRes slices into iron ore guidance

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian – Page: 14 : 28-May-25

Mineral Resources has advised that its Onslow Iron project has shipped 1.7 million tonnes of iron ore so far in May, and shipments for the full month are expected to total 1.9 million tonnes. This compares with 1.3 million tonnes in April, while the company expects shipments for June to be within the range of 2.3 million to 2.6 million tonnes. However, Mineral Resources has indicated that the Onslow Iron project’s full-year output for 2024-25 is now expected to be within the range of 7.8 to 8 million tonnes, compared with previous guidance of 8.5 million to 8.7 million tonnes.

CORPORATES
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN

ASX faces dividend horror story as companies slash payouts

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 5-Mar-25

The combined dividend payout for companies in the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index was just $31.2bn in the February reporting season. Bell Potter strategist Richard Coppleson notes that it is the lowest payout for this period since 2021, at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The three major listed iron ore miners reduced their dividends in response to a sharp fall in the price of the steel input during 2024. Citigroup expects further decline in the mining sector’s dividends, amid expectations that the iron ore price will also fall as new supply enters the market later in 2025. The firm also anticipates lower dividends from bank stocks, which dominate the ASX along with resources stocks.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Rate cut won’t stop insolvency trend overnight

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Original article by Matt Bell
The Australian – Page: 15 : 8-Jan-25

Data from the Australian Securities & Investments Commission shows that nearly 26,000 businesses have become insolvent since the May 2022 federal election, including a record 12,405 in the first 11 months of 2024. McGrathNicol’s executive chairman Jason Preston says corporate Australia is being affected by factors such as structural challenges in many sectors, high interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis. Preston expects businesses to continue to collapse in 2025, and notes that the eventual interest rate cuts will take some time to have a positive effect on the business sector and consumer sentiment.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, McGRATH NICOL AND PARTNERS SERVICES PTY LTD

Nine shoots higher as investors talk break-up

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Original article by Valerina Changarathil
The Australian – Page: 18 : 8-Jan-25

Nine Entertainment Company’s shares fell by 39 per cent in calendar 2024; however, the stock rose 5.6 per cent t to $1.32 on Tuesday, amid speculation that the diversified media group could be broken up. The recent emergence of Tanarra Capital on Nine’s share register has boosted such speculation; Tanarra is headed by John Wylie, who has successfully advocated for changes at companies such as Lendlease.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, TANARRA CAPITAL PTY LTD

Action-packed year tipped for lithium deals

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 17-Dec-24

Mergers and acquisitions activity in Australia’s critical minerals sector has been subdued in 2024; there have been just 25 such deals, compared with 49 in the previous calendar year. However, the total value of deals in the sector has risen from $5.3bn in 2023 to $14.8bn in the year to date. Law firm Allens is upbeat about the outlook for the critical minerals sector in 2025, forecasting an upturn in M&A activity that will flow through to other resources commodities.

CORPORATES
ALLENS

Action-packed year tipped for lithium deals

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 17-Dec-24

Mergers and acquisitions activity in Australia’s critical minerals sector has been subdued in 2024; there have been just 25 such deals, compared with 49 in the previous calendar year. However, the total value of deals in the sector has risen from $5.3bn in 2023 to $14.8bn in the year to date. Law firm Allens is upbeat about the outlook for the critical minerals sector in 2025, forecasting an upturn in M&A activity that will flow through to other resources commodities.

CORPORATES
ALLENS

Aussie to drop materially in 2025, CBA warns

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Original article by Alex Gluyas
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 4-Dec-24

The Commonwealth Bank is bearish about the outlook for the Australian dollar in 2025, amid fears of a trade war when US president-elect Donald Trump returns to the White House. The currency has fallen by 7.3 per cent since its most recent peak in September; it was fetching $US0.6470 on Tuesday, having reached a low of $US0.6432 last week. The Commonwealth Bank now expects the currency to fall to $US0.61 by September, but head of international equities Joseph Capurso says it could fall much further and faster if the trade war is more disruptive than anticipated.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA