BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Records to fall as miners defy crisis

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Original article by Dennis Shanahan, Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 13-Apr-20

Factors such as a resilient iron ore price and a rally in the price of gold have prompted expectations that the value of Australia’s resources exports will top $$299bn in 2019-20. This is $18bn higher than was forecast in December. The nation has exported $65.4bn worth of iron ore since 1 July, including $13.9bn in the first two months of 2020. Iron ore for delivery to China is trading at almost $US80 per tonne, compared with the Treasury’s forecast of $US55 a tonne. The resources and energy sector is largely continuing to operate during the pandemic.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Iron ore dividends still on track

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 18 : 8-Apr-20

Macquarie Group is bullish about the outlook for iron ore producers BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group, arguing that continued strong cashflows should enable them to maintain dividend yields. Macquarie notes that BHP’s iron ore operations will have helped to offset the impact of the sharp fall in the crude oil price on its petroleum division. Glynn Lawcock of UBS also expects BHP and Rio Tinto to maintain their dividend payments, although he says gold and base metal miners may reduce their dividends.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Earnings haven’t been revised low enough

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Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 8-Apr-20

Earnings per share forecasts for S&P/ASX 200 companies have been reduced by seven per cent since February, due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Macquarie argues that this downgrade is too small, given that Australia’s GDP growth is expected to contract in 2020; the broker adds that the financial market appears to have priced in a much higher decline. Macquarie notes that forecasts are difficult at present as many listed companies have withdrawn their earnings guidance in response to the pandemic.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Oil M&A looms as Woodside clears decks; FAR in trouble

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 22 : 31-Mar-20

James Byrne of Citibank is among the analysts who expect Woodside Petroleum to seek acquisitions after putting its key growth projects on hold. He notes that the oil and gas group has $US4.9bn in cash and $US7.9bn in liquidity, and it may be prepared to temporarily lose its BBB+ credit rating if the right acquisition emerges. Meanwhile, Far Limited has advised that the sharp decline in the crude oil price in recent months means that it cannot finalise new debt facilities to finance its share of the Woodside-led Sangomar oil project in Senegal.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, FAR LIMITED – ASX FAR, CITIBANK PTY LTD

Wage subsidies not enough for small business

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 25-Mar-20

Former Treasury official Steven Hamilton has urged the federal government to increase the wage subsidies for small and medium enterprises in response to the pandemic. He warns that the SME sector will be "completely wiped out" if the government does not act, while the nation will face a long and deep recession. Andrew Boak of Goldman Sachs agrees that the government’s existing wage subsidy measures will not be sufficient to avert large-scale job losses.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA GROUP HOLDINGS PTY LTD, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY

Seven pulls guidance amid advertising uncertainties

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 25-Mar-20

Seven West Media has withdrawn the earnings guidance it issued in February, citing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Seven had already downgraded its underlying EBIT guidance for 2019-20 at its half-year results presentation. Seven’s advertising revenue will be hit by the AFL’s decision to suspend its 2020 season until at least the end of May. It is also the official broadcaster of the Tokyo Olympic Games, which were to have been a key source of advertising revenue for the media group in 2020.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM

Businesses buffeted in sea of uncertainty

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 17 & 20 : 17-Mar-20

A growing number of Australian-listed companies are abandoning their recently-issued earnings guidance in response to the coronavirus. They include Cochlear, which has warned that hearing implants will be a low priority for the healthcare sector in terms of elective surgery when the virus is eventually contained. Challenger Limited, Auckland International Airport and oOh!Media are among the other companies that have withdrawn their earnings guidance. In contrast, The Reject Shop has advised that its sales have risen strongly year-on-year amid panic buying by consumers.

CORPORATES
COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED – ASX AIA, OOH!MEDIA LIMITED – ASX OML, THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED – ASX TRS

More capital raisings on the cards: Goldman

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Original article by Melissa Yeo
The Australian – Page: 27 : 6-Mar-20

Matthew Ross of Goldman Sachs says the coronavirus outbreak is likely to prompt more listed companies to undertake capital raisings in coming months, particularly ones that are close to breaching their debt covenants. Ross notes that the supply chains of many companies will be impacted by the virus, given the high level of dependence on imports from China, especially in the consumer goods sector.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Earnings shredded as virus fears bite

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Original article by Eli Greenblat, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 26-Feb-20

The coronavirus outbreak has become a major theme for the February reporting season, with a growing number of listed companies issuing earnings downgrades due to the impact of the virus. Treasury Wine Estates, Blackmores and Seek are among the latest companies to issue profit warnings; Treasury has downgraded its earnings expectations for the third time in 2020. Meanwhile, retail group Mosaic Brands had advised that its dividends have been put on hold until the impact of the coronavirus becomes clear.

CORPORATES
TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, BLACKMORES LIMITED – ASX BKL, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, MOSAIC BRANDS LIMITED – ASX MOZ

Epidemic will create merger and acquisition opportunities

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 19 : 24-Feb-20

Tony Damian of law firm Herbert Smith Freehills expects mergers and acquisitions activity in the Asia-Pacific region to remain strong in 2020. This is despite challenges such as the coronavirus outbreak. Damian forecasts that private equity firms and superannuation funds will be a major driver of M&A activity in Australia during 2020. Meanwhile, data from Refinitiv shows that the value of announced M&A deals in Australia has topped $US14.8bn in the year to date, compared with just $US5.4bn at the same time in 2019.

CORPORATES
HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, REFINITIV AUSTRALIA PTY LTD