BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Whitehaven puts off Vickery mine decision

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 16 : 17-Apr-20

Whitehaven Coal has advised that its production fell by 15 per cent year-on-year in the March quarter, to 4.1 million tonnes of saleable coal. Whitehaven’s managed coal sales fell 22 per cent to 4.5 million tonnes, and the group now expects its managed coal sales for the full year to be within the range of 17.5-18.5 million tonnes. Whitehaven has also indicated that challenging market conditions means that a final investment decision on its Vickery project will not be made until at least 2021. It had previously expected a decision to be made by the end of June.

CORPORATES
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC

LNG exports face $20bn hit as prices crash

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 13 & 20 : 17-Apr-20

The federal government’s revenue projections for LNG exports in 2020-21 were based on an average crude oil price of $U60 per barrel in 2020. However, the oil price has fallen to around $US27 a barrel; EnergyQuest expects it to average $US30 in the second half of 2020, rising to $US45 in the first half of 2021. The consultancy expects LNG export revenue to fall from $US50bn in 2019-20 to just $US30bn in 2020-21. In contrast, the government had forecast revenue of $US44bn from LNG exports in 2020-21, although this was prior to the coronavirus pandemic and the recent slump in the crude oil price.

CORPORATES
ENERGYQUEST PTY LTD

Westpac flags $1.4b first-half hit, expects more to come

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 18 : 15-Apr-20

Westpac has advised that its financial accounts for the first half of fiscal 2020 will include provisions of $1,030m associated with Austrac’s money-laundering probe. Westpac will also increase its provisions for customer remediation and legal costs by $260m. The financial hit will reduce Westpac’s common equity tier 1 capital ratio by about 30 basis points, to 10.5 per cent. Dermot Ryan of AMP Capital expects Australian banks that report their half-year results in May to slash their dividend payouts.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED

Records to fall as miners defy crisis

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Original article by Dennis Shanahan, Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 1 & 4 : 13-Apr-20

Factors such as a resilient iron ore price and a rally in the price of gold have prompted expectations that the value of Australia’s resources exports will top $$299bn in 2019-20. This is $18bn higher than was forecast in December. The nation has exported $65.4bn worth of iron ore since 1 July, including $13.9bn in the first two months of 2020. Iron ore for delivery to China is trading at almost $US80 per tonne, compared with the Treasury’s forecast of $US55 a tonne. The resources and energy sector is largely continuing to operate during the pandemic.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Iron ore dividends still on track

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 18 : 8-Apr-20

Macquarie Group is bullish about the outlook for iron ore producers BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group, arguing that continued strong cashflows should enable them to maintain dividend yields. Macquarie notes that BHP’s iron ore operations will have helped to offset the impact of the sharp fall in the crude oil price on its petroleum division. Glynn Lawcock of UBS also expects BHP and Rio Tinto to maintain their dividend payments, although he says gold and base metal miners may reduce their dividends.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Earnings haven’t been revised low enough

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Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 8-Apr-20

Earnings per share forecasts for S&P/ASX 200 companies have been reduced by seven per cent since February, due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Macquarie argues that this downgrade is too small, given that Australia’s GDP growth is expected to contract in 2020; the broker adds that the financial market appears to have priced in a much higher decline. Macquarie notes that forecasts are difficult at present as many listed companies have withdrawn their earnings guidance in response to the pandemic.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Oil M&A looms as Woodside clears decks; FAR in trouble

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 22 : 31-Mar-20

James Byrne of Citibank is among the analysts who expect Woodside Petroleum to seek acquisitions after putting its key growth projects on hold. He notes that the oil and gas group has $US4.9bn in cash and $US7.9bn in liquidity, and it may be prepared to temporarily lose its BBB+ credit rating if the right acquisition emerges. Meanwhile, Far Limited has advised that the sharp decline in the crude oil price in recent months means that it cannot finalise new debt facilities to finance its share of the Woodside-led Sangomar oil project in Senegal.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, FAR LIMITED – ASX FAR, CITIBANK PTY LTD

Wage subsidies not enough for small business

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 25-Mar-20

Former Treasury official Steven Hamilton has urged the federal government to increase the wage subsidies for small and medium enterprises in response to the pandemic. He warns that the SME sector will be "completely wiped out" if the government does not act, while the nation will face a long and deep recession. Andrew Boak of Goldman Sachs agrees that the government’s existing wage subsidy measures will not be sufficient to avert large-scale job losses.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA GROUP HOLDINGS PTY LTD, GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY

Seven pulls guidance amid advertising uncertainties

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 25-Mar-20

Seven West Media has withdrawn the earnings guidance it issued in February, citing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Seven had already downgraded its underlying EBIT guidance for 2019-20 at its half-year results presentation. Seven’s advertising revenue will be hit by the AFL’s decision to suspend its 2020 season until at least the end of May. It is also the official broadcaster of the Tokyo Olympic Games, which were to have been a key source of advertising revenue for the media group in 2020.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM

Businesses buffeted in sea of uncertainty

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 17 & 20 : 17-Mar-20

A growing number of Australian-listed companies are abandoning their recently-issued earnings guidance in response to the coronavirus. They include Cochlear, which has warned that hearing implants will be a low priority for the healthcare sector in terms of elective surgery when the virus is eventually contained. Challenger Limited, Auckland International Airport and oOh!Media are among the other companies that have withdrawn their earnings guidance. In contrast, The Reject Shop has advised that its sales have risen strongly year-on-year amid panic buying by consumers.

CORPORATES
COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, AUCKLAND INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT LIMITED – ASX AIA, OOH!MEDIA LIMITED – ASX OML, THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED – ASX TRS