BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

More capital raisings on the cards: Goldman

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Original article by Melissa Yeo
The Australian – Page: 27 : 6-Mar-20

Matthew Ross of Goldman Sachs says the coronavirus outbreak is likely to prompt more listed companies to undertake capital raisings in coming months, particularly ones that are close to breaching their debt covenants. Ross notes that the supply chains of many companies will be impacted by the virus, given the high level of dependence on imports from China, especially in the consumer goods sector.

CORPORATES
GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Earnings shredded as virus fears bite

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Original article by Eli Greenblat, David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 26-Feb-20

The coronavirus outbreak has become a major theme for the February reporting season, with a growing number of listed companies issuing earnings downgrades due to the impact of the virus. Treasury Wine Estates, Blackmores and Seek are among the latest companies to issue profit warnings; Treasury has downgraded its earnings expectations for the third time in 2020. Meanwhile, retail group Mosaic Brands had advised that its dividends have been put on hold until the impact of the coronavirus becomes clear.

CORPORATES
TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, BLACKMORES LIMITED – ASX BKL, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, MOSAIC BRANDS LIMITED – ASX MOZ

Epidemic will create merger and acquisition opportunities

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 19 : 24-Feb-20

Tony Damian of law firm Herbert Smith Freehills expects mergers and acquisitions activity in the Asia-Pacific region to remain strong in 2020. This is despite challenges such as the coronavirus outbreak. Damian forecasts that private equity firms and superannuation funds will be a major driver of M&A activity in Australia during 2020. Meanwhile, data from Refinitiv shows that the value of announced M&A deals in Australia has topped $US14.8bn in the year to date, compared with just $US5.4bn at the same time in 2019.

CORPORATES
HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, REFINITIV AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Westpac warns of hit to bottom line

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Original article by Aleks Vickovich
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 20-Feb-20

Westpac has used a market update for the first quarter of 2019-20 to advise that its earnings for the financial year will be affected by factors such as the Austrac scandal, storms and the bushfires crisis. Citigroup has responded by downgrading its half-year earnings per share forecast by seven per cent, while its forecast for the full year has been reduced by five per cent. Westpac could face fines of up to $2bn for breaching anti-money laundering laws, while it is the subject of two class actions over the scandal.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT. AUSTRALIAN TRANSACTION REPORTS AND ANALYSIS CENTRE

Investors shrug off weak outlook, virus threat

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 20-Feb-20

Pieter Stoltz of UBS notes that 28 per cent of Australia’s large-capitalisation stocks have exceeded their dividend expectations so far in the February reporting season. He says this may be due to factors such as demand for stable income or limited investment opportunities. Stoltz adds that 31 per cent of large companies have upgraded their earnings guidance, while just 19 per cent have downgraded their earnings guidance.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Home loans lift on property recovery

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 20 : 17-Feb-20

A report from Deloitte notes that there was a seven per cent decline in new mortgage settlements in 2019. However, the latest edition of its Australian Mortgage Report shows that lenders and brokers expect a 2-3 per cent increase in mortgage settlements in 2020. Heather Baister of Deloitte says mid-tier lenders such as Macquarie and Citibank could benefit the most from the expected upturn in settlements.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CITIBANK PTY LTD

From bad to worse for AMP: $2.5bn loss, $6.3bn outflows, more to come

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 19 & 23 : 14-Feb-20

Wealth manager AMP has posted a statutory loss of $2.5bn for the 2019 calendar year, while its underlying profit fell by 32 per cent to $464m. A $2.35bn impairment charge in the first half was the major contributor to the big loss. Meanwhile, AMP’s wealth division recorded net cash outflows of $6.3bn for the year, and CEO Francesco De Ferrari says outflows are likely to be high again in 2020. AMP has advised that its customer remediation program is expected to be completed in 2021.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP

CSL keeps pumping up the profit

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Original article by Jared Lynch
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 13-Feb-20

CSL has posted a 2019-20 interim net profit of $US1.248bn, which is eight per cent higher than previously. Sales rose by 8.4 per cent to $US4.7bn, with sales of its immunoglobulin products rising by 26 per cent to $US1.985bn. The biotechnology group expects its full-year profit to be within the range of $US2.1bn to $US2.17bn. CEO Paul Perreault says none of the company’s employees in Wuhan have been infected by the coronavirus and the company has not yet been impacted by the outbreak.

CORPORATES
CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL

BHP could pay out $3b extra cash for investors

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Original article by Luke Housego
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 12-Feb-20

Macquarie has forecast that BHP will report underlying earnings of $US12.52bn for the first half of 2019-20, which would be 14 per cent higher than previously. Macquarie also expects BHP to announce an interim dividend of $US0.76 per share, while the firm adds that there is potential for a special dividend of up to $US0.40 per share. BHP will release its interim results on 18 February.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

CBA under pressure to deliver perfect result

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Original article by James Frost, James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 10-Feb-20

The consensus of analysts polled by Bloomberg is for the Commonwealth Bank of Australia to post a 2019-20 interim cash profit of $4.34bn. This compares with $4.68bn for the first half of 2018-19. The bank’s share price has gained 10 per cent in the last three months, leaving the stock vulnerable to a pullback if investors are disappointed by the interim result. Most analysts do not expect CBA to announce a special dividend or a share buyback.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, BLOOMBERG LP