BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Westpac dividend under pressure

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 23-Sep-19

There is growing speculation that Westpac could reduce its dividend payout in response to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s new capital requirements. Westpac has yet to determine the size of its final dividend for 2018-19, but Credit Suisse has forecast both a lower payout and a capital raising of at least $1.5bn when Westpac releases its full-year results in early November. The prospect of further official interest rate cuts in Australia is also weighing on the earnings of the nation’s banks.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, EVANS AND PARTNERS ASIA FUND – ASX EAF, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, PM CAPITAL LIMITED

Telstra stung by go-slow on NBN

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Original article by Supratim Adhikari
The Australian – Page: 19 : 3-Sep-19

NBN Co’s latest corporate plan indicates that seven million homes will have an active National Broadband Network service by 30 June 2020, compared to its previous forecast of 7.5 million. The slowdown in the number of homes being connected to the NBN will not only impact on NBN Co’s revenue forecasts but on Telstra’s as well. The telco has advised that the slowdown will reduce its revenue by about $400m.

CORPORATES
NBN CO LIMITED, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS

Potential $50b wave of gas M&A deals around the corner

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 30-Aug-19

David Low of Wood Mackenzie says mergers and acquisitions activity in Australia’s oil and gas sector could increase in coming years. He identifies Cooper Energy and Senex Energy as being among the smaller companies that could become takeover targets, while Oil Search could also potentially attract suitors following its recent share price weakness. Low adds that international companies such as ConocoPhillips and Eni could opt to divest some or all of their assets in Australia.

CORPORATES
WOOD MACKENZIE, COOPER ENERGY LIMITED – ASX COE, SENEX ENERGY LIMITED – ASX SXY, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, CONOCOPHILLIPS, ENTE NAZIONALE IDROCARBURI SPA, COMET RIDGE LIMITED – ASX COI, GALILEE ENERGY LIMITED – ASX GLL, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, QUADRANT ENERGY PTY LTD

Macquarie’s $1.6bn capital raise

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 29-Aug-19

Macquarie Group has advised that its profit for the six months to 30 September will be about 10 per cent higher than the $1.3bn result for the same period in 2018. Macquarie posted a record profit of $2.98bn for the year to 31 March, and Jonathan Mott of UBS has forecast a profit of $3.04bn for fiscal 2020. Meanwhile, Macquarie is seeking to raise $1bn from institutional investors and up to $600m from retail investors via a share purchase plan. Most of the proceeds will be invested in assets such renewable energy, technology and infrastructure.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CADENCE CAPITAL LIMITED – ASX CDT, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

FMG’s dilemma as record profit meets price fall

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 26-Aug-19

Fortescue Metals Group is forecast to post a record underlying profit of $US3.03bn ($4.49bn) for 2018-19, following a rally in the iron ore price during the financial year. Some analysts expect the pure-play miner to announce a final dividend on 26 August, despite the recent fall in the iron ore price and the fact that Fortescue’s interim dividend was well within its stated target of paying 50-80 per cent of its net profits in dividends.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX ILU

Potash bull sees upside in BHP push at Jansen

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 22-Aug-19

BHP expects to have a capital expenditure budget of about $US8bn for fiscal 2021, and CEO Andrew Mackenzie has indicated that less than $US500m will be allocated to the Olympic Dam mine in South Australia and the Jansen potash project in Canada. A decision on whether to proceed with the Jansen project is likely within 18 months. Getting it to the production stage is slated to cost between $US5.3bn and $US5.7bn, and Tal Lomnitzer of Janus Henderson says rising global demand for food means the project will deliver long-term benefits for BHP and its shareholders.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC – ASX JHG, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Seven set for tough result as ratings flop

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Original article by Zoe Samios, Leo Shanahan
The Australian – Page: 23 : 19-Aug-19

Tribeca Investment Partners’ Jun Bei Liu expects Seven West Media to announce weak earnings and writedowns when its 2018-19 financial results are released on 20 August. The media group had issued a profit warning in May, and the Seven Network’s audience share is currently 2.4 per cent lower year-on-year. In contrast, the Nine Network’s audience share has risen by 3.4 per cent. New Seven West CEO James Warburton has noted that the Seven Network has some "ageing formats"; data from OzTAM shows that ‘My Kitchen Rules’ and ‘House Rules’ in particular have lost significant audience share in recent years.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED, TRIBECA INVESTMENT PARTNERS PTY LTD, OZTAM PTY LTD

BHP to release a dividend smash hit

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 19-Aug-19

The consensus of analysts polled by Bloomberg is that BHP will post a 2018-19 underlying profit of $US9.91bn on 20 August. UBS is more bullish, forecasting a profit of at least $US10bn. UBS also expects shareholders to receive a final dividend of $US0.82 per share, with a full-year payout of $US2.39. Citigroup in turn anticipates a final dividend of $US0.79 a share and a total dividend of $US2.36 for the year. BHP paid out $US8.6bn ($12.7bn) worth of dividends earlier in 2019.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

AGL eyes alternatives as Vocus off the table

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 20 : 9-Aug-19

AGL Energy has posted a 2018-19 net profit of $905m, which is 42.8 per cent lower than previously. Its underlying profit after tax rose by 2.2 per cent to $1.04bn. AGL has forecast that its profit will be within the range of $780m and $860m in 2019-20, citing factor such as lower electricity prices, higher fuel costs and the impact of an outage at its Loy Yang A generator in Victoria. Meanwhile, CEO Brett Redman says AGL remains open to expanding into the data services sector, despite abandoning a bid for Vocus Group earlier in 2019.

CORPORATES
AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, VOCUS GROUP LIMITED – ASX VOC, PERTH ENERGY PTY LTD, VERTIUM ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

CBA sets banking tone with profit pressure

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Original article by Cliona O’Dowd
The Australian – Page: 17 & 20 : 5-Aug-19

The consensus of analysts polled by Bloomberg is that the Commonwealth Bank of Australia will post a 2018-19 cash profit of $8.76bn, which would be seven per cent lower than previously. Jonathan Mott of UBS estimates that CBA has about $5bn in excess capital after completing the sale of Colonial First State Global Asset Management. He says that rather than announcing a special dividend, the bank should retain some capital until the outcome of the New Zealand Capital Review is known. Mott recently downgraded his recommendation on CBA’s stock to ‘sell’. AMP and Suncorp are among the other companies that will issue earnings reports in coming days.

CORPORATES
COMMOTION SYSTEMS, BLOOMBERG LP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, RECKON LIMITED – ASX RKN, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INCORPORATED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ORD MINNETT GROUP LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY