BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Inpex expects glut of LNG to continue

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 19 : 5-Aug-19

The spot price of LNG in Asia has fallen to $US4 per million British thermal units, compared with $US11/MMBtu in late 2018. The LNG market has been affected by factors such as increased supply and slowing global economic growth. However, Inpex CEO Takayuki Ueda is upbeat about the outlook for LNG, saying Asian demand will remain strong. Meanwhile, Inpex is considering an increase in the capacity of its Ichthys LNG project.

CORPORATES
INPEX CORPORATION, CHEVRON CORPORATION

Iron ore floods Rio Tinto with cash

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 19 : 1-Aug-19

Macquarie Group forecasts that Rio Tinto will report after-tax earnings of $US5.7bn for the first half of 2019, and EBITDA of $US10.9bn. The investment bank adds that iron ore is likely to account for more than 80 per cent of Rio Tinto’s earnings for the half-year, following a strong rise in the price of the steel input. Macquarie analysts also expect Rio Tinto to announce an interim dividend of $US1.76 per share, which is in line with the consensus forecast of about $US1.78 per share. Some analysts suggest that a special dividend is also possible.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ALUMINIUM CORPORATION OF CHINA LIMITED

Building slowdown tipped to hit bottom in 2019-20

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Nick Lenaghan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 29-Jul-19

New building starts are expected to fall by eight per cent in 2019-20, according to BIS Oxford Economics, having fallen by an estimated 12 per cent in 2018-19. An improvement in non-residential construction in 2019-20 is tipped to be outweighed by a decline in residential activity. However, BIS Oxford Economics expects building activity to rebound in 2020-21 and the years beyond, as factors such as new first-home buyer stimulus programs and cuts to interest rates help to generate a recovery in the market.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD

Tough time for IPOs as investors fall quiet

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 25 : 24-Jul-19

HLB Mann Judd’s latest IPO Watch report shows that 23 companies listed on the Australian sharemarket in the first half of 2019, compared with 39 during the same period in 2018. Meanwhile, just $823m was raised via IPOs during the first half, down from $2.5bn in the previous corresponding period. Marcus Ohm of HLB does not expect IPO activity to improve during the September quarter, while he says the outlook for the final quarter of 2019 may depend on how the sharemarket performs. At present, just eight companies are seeking to list in the second half of 2019.

CORPORATES
HLB MANN JUDD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Little room for error as reporting season nears

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 25 : 24-Jul-19

The consensus forecast is for S&P/ASX 200 companies outside of the resources sector to post earnings per share growth of one per cent for 2018-19. Morgans Financial expects the August 2019 reporting season to generally exceed expectations, due primarily to the fact that earnings forecasts have been downgraded so much. Andrew Tang of Morgans favours stocks such as BHP, Rio Tinto, Telstra and A2 Milk. He says Suncorp, Spark Infrastructure, Computershare and REA Group are among the stocks whose 2018-19 earnings and future guidance may disappoint the market.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED – ASX A2M, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, SPARK INFRASTRUCTURE GROUP – ASX SKI, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX ALL ORDINARIES INDEX

BHP flags iron ore output surge

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 20 : 18-Jul-19

BHP has forecast that its Pilbara iron ore exports for 2019-20 will be within the range of 273 to 286 million tonnes, despite its scheduled maintenance work at Port Hedland. BHP’s Pilbara shipments totalled 71.1 million tonnes in the final quarter of 2018-19, and 270.5 million tonnes for the full year. BHP has also advised that its 2018-19 production costs were in line with previous forecasts of less than $US15 per tonne. Rio Tinto recently indicated that its iron ore production costs for 2019 will be between $US14 and $US15 per tonne.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Whitehaven boss hints at hefty dividends for shareholders

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 18 : 12-Jul-19

Whitehaven Coal will post underlying earnings of $567.6m for 2018-19, according to the consensus forecast of analysts polled by Bloomberg. It would be the group’s second successive record profit, with Whitehaven benefiting from the premium at which its thermal coal has traded compared with the benchmark price. MD Paul Flynn has given indications that Whitehaven will maintain its dividend payout ratio, although some analysts suggest that it may be prudent to retain some cash given its plans to develop the Vickery and Winchester South mines.

CORPORATES
WHITEHALL ASSOCIATES, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, BLOOMBERG LP, FARALLON CAPITAL PTY LTD

Retailers hope tax-cut cheques will fuel spending spree

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Rosie Lewis, Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 2 : 11-Jul-19

More than 970,000 people have lodged their annual tax return with the Australian Taxation Office since 1 July. Retailers are optimistic that the federal government’s tax cuts will have a similar stimulatory effect on the sector as the one-off payment made by Labor in 2009. Russell Zimmerman of the Australian Retailers Association says the tax cuts will allow struggling consumers to buy items such as new electrical appliances and clothing.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, NATIONAL RETAIL ASSOCIATION LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Investors lurk for North West Shelf shake-up

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 4-Jul-19

Saul Kavonic of Credit Suisse says that some of the partners in the North West Shelf venture could potentially divest their stakes in coming years. The NW Shelf project plans to commence processing third-party gas to offset the depletion of its own gas reserves. Woodside Petroleum has a 16.7 per cent stake in the NW Shelf project and is its operator; CEO Peter Coleman used a recent site tour to flag the possibility that the oil and gas group could eventually review its interest in the project and whether it could make better use of its capital.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, HAYBERRY GLOBAL FUND

Roy Hill bound for record profit despite volume miss

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 2-Jul-19

The Roy Hill iron ore project’s 2018-19 production is expected to be 55 million tonnes, although export volumes are likely to total 53 million tonnes. Recent data from Macquarie suggested that the Gina Rinehart-backed project would export 52.5 million tonnes in 2018-19, after shipping about 50.5 million tonnes in 2017-19. Looking ahead, Roy Hill has applied to increase its annual export capacity to 60 million tonnes in 2020. Roy Hill’s 2018-19 earnings should be boosted by a rally in the iron price in 2018-19, following a $558m profit in the previous financial year.

CORPORATES
ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG