BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Whitehaven to roll out driverless trucks

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 21 : 12-Apr-19

Whitehaven Coal has downgraded its sales expectations for 2018-19 to between 20.5 and 21 million tonnes, compared with previous guidance of 21.5 to 22.5 million tonnes. It follows a three per cent fall in production during the March quarter, with output affected by lower yields at its Maules Creek mine in New South Wales. Meanwhile, Whitehaven has advised that it aims to deploy six autonomous haulage trucks at the Maules Creek mine by October. It will be the first time driverless trucks have been used at an Australian coal mine.

CORPORATES
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED

Nation’s residential building boom well and truly over: BIS

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 11-Apr-19

BIS Oxford Economics is bearish about the near-term outlook for Australia’s housing construction market. The firm has forecast that the sector will be hit by a two-year correction, with the number of new dwelling starts tipped to fall to 161,000 a year. This compares with between 220,000 and 230,000 annually over the last four years. Meanwhile, official data shows that there was a 16.3 per cent decline in housing starts during the December quarter, which is the largest quarter-on-quarter fall since September 2000.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, BROOKFIELD MULTIPLEX LIMITED

Rio faces new iron ore output hit after fire

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 10-Apr-19

Rio Tinto’s iron ore shipments from the Pilbara will be further disrupted following a fire at a screening plant on East Intercourse Island. It follows a fire at another iron ore screening plant in early 2019, while Rio Tinto declared force majeure on some of its supply contracts in the wake of Cyclone Veronica in March. The latest incident may affect Rio Tinto’s ability to meet its full-year production guidance of 338 million to 350 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto has advised that it paid $US4.8bn ($6.5bn) in taxes and royalties in Australia in 2018, and $US6.8bn globally.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP

BHP’s forecasts blown away by wild weather

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 42 : 3-Apr-19

BHP has advised that Cyclone Veronica did not cause major damage to its iron ore operations in the Pilbara. However, the resources group has warned that its annual output will be reduced by 6-8 million tonnes due to the cyclone. BHP indicated earlier in 2019 that its export volumes had been cut by four million tonnes due to the forced derailment of an iron ore train in late 2018. Rio Tinto also recently downgraded its iron ore production forecast in the wake of Cyclone Veronica.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, INCITEC PIVOT LIMITED – ASX IPL, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, INSURANCE COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Rio closes in on $100 share price

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Original article by Nick Evans
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 2-Apr-19

Shares in Rio Tinto closed 1.7 per cent higher at $99.63 on 1 April, putting the resources giant on track to breach the $100-per-share mark for the first time since mid-2008. Rio Tinto has advised that its iron ore production for 2019 is likely to be at the lower end of its guidance in the wake of Cyclone Veronica and a fire at its Cape Lambert processing plant in January. However, the iron ore price is likely to be bolstered by the recent global supply disruptions. BHP, Fortescue Metals Group and Roy Hill in turn should benefit more from any rise in the iron ore price than Rio Tinto, as Cyclone Veronica had less impact on Port Hedland than Cape Lambert.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, VALE SA, BANK OF AMERICA AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MERRILL LYNCH (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD

5G ‘overhyped’: Credit Suisse telco chief

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Original article by Eric Johnston
The Australian – Page: 27 : 28-Mar-19

Optus launched 5G broadband services in February, while Telstra intends to begin selling 5G handsets within six months. However, Colin McCallum of Credit Suisse has downplayed the merits of 5G technology for consumers, arguing that existing 4G networks can cope with the demands of streaming video. He notes that deploying 5G technology will require significant capital expenditure, while the opportunities for increased revenue from consumers are quite limited at present.

CORPORATES
SINGTEL OPTUS PTY LTD, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, CREDIT SUISSE AG, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS COMPANY LIMITED, APPLE INCORPORATED

Retailers at risk as consumers tighten belts

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 25-Mar-19

Insolvency firm SV Partners has stated that 916 Australian retail outlets are at "high to severe risk of collapse" in the next 12 months. Its forecast is based on data from credit bureaus and providers. An online retailer with turnover of more than $1 billion is one of the businesses that are considered to be under threat. Deloitte Access Economics has stated that retail sales growth will fall to 1.6 per cent in 2019 as consumers curtail their spending; well-known retailers to have failed in recent months include Roger David and Shoes of Prey.

CORPORATES
SV PARTNERS PTY LTD, DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED, ROGER DAVID STORES PTY LTD, SHOES OF PREY PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, ED HARRY MENSWEAR, NAPOLEON PERDIS COSMETICS PTY LTD, BEDS ‘R’ US PTY LTD

Boutique and robo models the new face of financial advice

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Original article by James Eyers, Elouise Fowler
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 21-Mar-19

Westpac CEO Brian Hartzer expects banks to focus on using automated solutions to provide personal financial advice in future, due to the high cost of providing such services. Hamilton Wealth CEO Will Hamilton agrees that so-called robo-advice may be the only option for banks if they are to continue to offer financial advice on a large scale. Hartzer adds that consumers will still be able to pay for bespoke personal finance advice via boutique firms.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, HAMILTON WEALTH MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, VIRIDIAN ADVISORY PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, BT FINANCIAL GROUP PTY LTD, KORDA CAPITAL, SIX PARK

Resources strength holds up reporting season

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 5-Mar-19

Paul Winter of UBS notes that Australia’s latest February reporting season featured more earnings downgrades than upgrades for the first time in the last four years. Hasan Tevfik of MST Marquee adds that while the reporting season was better than expected, this was largely due to a strong performance by the resources sector, which offset weakness in other sectors. Earnings-per-share growth for S&P/ASX 200 stocks is now forecast to be 6.3 per cent in 2018-19, compared with 7.6 per cent in 2017-18.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MST MARQUEE, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

House slump hits Harvey Norman

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 22 : 1-Mar-19

Furniture and electronics retailer Harvey Norman has posted a 2018-19 interim net profit of $222.8m, which is 7.3 per cent higher than previously. Its Australian franchised stores recorded sales of $2.95bn for the period, a decline of 1.7 per cent, and there was an 0.6 per cent fall in same-store sales. However, its overseas stores boasted sales of $1.07bn, an increase of 12.1 per cent. Chairman Gerry Harvey is confident that Harvey Norman’s overseas stores will eventually contribute 50 per cent of its earnings.

CORPORATES
HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, ALLERON INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED, IKEA