BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

RBNZ could end big four’s NZ super profits

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 1-Mar-19

New Zealand has traditionally been a cash cow for Australia’s major banks, but experts warn that profit growth could be dampened by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s proposal to increase their capital requirements. Westpac has warned that any move to impose higher capital buffers could push up interest rates on loans and result in a downturn in deposit rates. The RBNZ has downplayed concerns that it proposal may prompt Australian banks to exit the NZ market.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NEW ZEALAND INITIATIVE, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Will Rio take the plunge into M&A?

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 1-Mar-19

Rio Tinto has signalled that it is open to acquisitions, but CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques stresses that any deals must create value for shareholders. Ben Cleary of Tribeca Investment Partners has identified copper miner SolGold as a prime target for Rio Tinto, and he says other potential targets could include OZ Minerals and Freeport-McMoran. Glyn Lawcock of UBS cautions that the wrong acquisition could undo much of the progress Rio Tinto has made in restoring investors’ confidence in recent years.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, TRIBECA INVESTMENT PARTNERS PTY LTD, SOLGOLD PLC, OZ MINERALS LIMITED – ASX OZL, FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD INCORPORATED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM

Big four may mull NZ exit due to capital call

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 28-Feb-19

Brian Johnson of CLSA and Jonathan Mott of UBS have warned that Australia’s four major banks could seek to divest their New Zealand subsidiaries if the nation’s central bank presses ahead with plans to increase their capital requirements. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has downplayed such suggestions, arguing that the nation’s banks are among the most profitable in the world. Mott does not expect the RBNZ to back down on its proposal.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Gas shortage to hit within three years

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 27-Feb-19

EnergyQuest has forecast that states on the east coast of Australia will experience a shortage of gas by 2022, and they will have insufficient gas to meet peak demand by 2026. The consultancy has also warned that while Queensland will be able to increase supply to the east coast in the near-term, the state’s own production will begin to decline from 2025. EnergyQuest CEO Graeme Bethune says the expected shortfall means importing LNG is likely to be the best option. The looming gas shortage is also forecast to result in gas prices remaining high over the long-term.

CORPORATES
ENERGYQUEST PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Woolies takes $2.5bn hit as profit stagnates

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 19 : 21-Feb-19

Grocery giant Woolworths Group has posted a 2018-19 interim net profit of $979m, which is one per cent higher than previously. Net profit from continuing operations, rose by 2.1 per cent to $920m and sales were up 2.2 per cent at $30.704bn. Analyst say the half-year results were disappointing, and Woolworths CEO Brad Banducci has warned that the retail trading environment is likely to remain challenging in the second half. Shareholders will receive an interim dividend of $0.45 per share.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, WOOLWORTHS SUPERMARKETS, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, DAN MURPHY’S, ENDEAVOUR DRINKS, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COLES GROUP LIMITED – ASX COL, EG GROUP

Seven slashes debt, looks to banks’ ad spend

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 20-Feb-19

Seven West Media has posted a 2018-19 interim underlying net profit of $91.8m, which is 7.8 per cent lower than previously. Revenue was 1.5 per cent lower at $797.4m. Seven has scaled back its full-year EBIT growth forecast to no more than five per cent at best. CEO Tim Worner says Seven was affected by the weaker advertising market, but he expects banks and insurers to increase their advertising expenditure in the wake of the Hayne royal commission. He adds that free-to-air TV is a compelling proposition for banks as they seek to rebuild trust in their brands.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, CCZ EQUITIES PTY LTD, AIRTASKER PTY LTD, HEALTHENGINE PTY LTD, SOCIETYONE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Super changes to cost AMP $30m annually

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Original article by Misa Han
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 19-Feb-19

Embattled wealth manager AMP has advised that the federal government’s superannuation reforms will reduce its operating earnings by about $10m in 2019 and up to $30m in 2020. The reforms will allow the Australian Taxation Office to consolidate super accounts that are inactive or have low balances. AMP estimates that the reforms will affect about 370,000 of its super accounts. The bill has been passed by the Senate with the Greens’ support, although it has yet to be passed by the lower house.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Earnings hit tipped for BHP

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 20 : 19-Feb-19

BHP will post a net profit of $US3.9bn for the first half of 2018-19, according to the consensus forecast of analysts. This compares with $US4.1bn for the previous corresponding period. EBITDA is tipped to fall from $US12.8bn to $US10.6bn, although an expected strong rise in the petroleum division’s EBITDA will help offset the underperformance elsewhere in BHP’s portfolio. Meanwhile, BHP’s interim dividend is expected to fall from $US0.55 per share to $US0.53, although the downturn in the Australian dollar will boost the dividend payout of local investors.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA

Investors win from BHP, Rio cash surge

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 40 : 18-Feb-19

BHP returned $US10.5bn to investors in 2018, while Rio Tinto returned some $US12.5bn. Both resources groups are expected to have large cash balances when their latest financial results are released in the next week or so, and the recent rally in the iron ore price will further boost their cash holdings during 2019. James Eginton of the Tribeca Natural Resource Fund says BHP and Rio Tinto should consider using some of their franking credits via special dividends in the next six months, in preparation for a possible change of federal government.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, TRIBECA NATURAL RESOURCES FUND, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, VALE SA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Beach lifts profit guidance as more growth tipped

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 14-Feb-19

Beach Energy has posted a 2081-19 interim net profit of $282.9m and underlying earnings of $278.8m. Sales rose by 169 per cent to $1.057bn, and Beach has upgraded its full-year EBITDA forecast in response to its strong performance in the first half. CEO Matt Kay says the oil and gas group will consider acquisitions, but he stresses that any deals would need to add value for shareholders. Shares in Beach closed 5.3 per cent higher at $1.78 on 13 February.

CORPORATES
BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, LATTICE ENERGY LIMITED, SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SVW, BP PLC, CUE ENERGY RESOURCES NL – ASX CUE, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD