BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Woolies takes $2.5bn hit as profit stagnates

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 19 : 21-Feb-19

Grocery giant Woolworths Group has posted a 2018-19 interim net profit of $979m, which is one per cent higher than previously. Net profit from continuing operations, rose by 2.1 per cent to $920m and sales were up 2.2 per cent at $30.704bn. Analyst say the half-year results were disappointing, and Woolworths CEO Brad Banducci has warned that the retail trading environment is likely to remain challenging in the second half. Shareholders will receive an interim dividend of $0.45 per share.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, WOOLWORTHS SUPERMARKETS, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, DAN MURPHY’S, ENDEAVOUR DRINKS, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COLES GROUP LIMITED – ASX COL, EG GROUP

Seven slashes debt, looks to banks’ ad spend

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 20-Feb-19

Seven West Media has posted a 2018-19 interim underlying net profit of $91.8m, which is 7.8 per cent lower than previously. Revenue was 1.5 per cent lower at $797.4m. Seven has scaled back its full-year EBIT growth forecast to no more than five per cent at best. CEO Tim Worner says Seven was affected by the weaker advertising market, but he expects banks and insurers to increase their advertising expenditure in the wake of the Hayne royal commission. He adds that free-to-air TV is a compelling proposition for banks as they seek to rebuild trust in their brands.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, CCZ EQUITIES PTY LTD, AIRTASKER PTY LTD, HEALTHENGINE PTY LTD, SOCIETYONE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Super changes to cost AMP $30m annually

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Original article by Misa Han
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 19-Feb-19

Embattled wealth manager AMP has advised that the federal government’s superannuation reforms will reduce its operating earnings by about $10m in 2019 and up to $30m in 2020. The reforms will allow the Australian Taxation Office to consolidate super accounts that are inactive or have low balances. AMP estimates that the reforms will affect about 370,000 of its super accounts. The bill has been passed by the Senate with the Greens’ support, although it has yet to be passed by the lower house.

CORPORATES
AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIAN TAXATION OFFICE, AUSTRALIAN GREENS, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Earnings hit tipped for BHP

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 20 : 19-Feb-19

BHP will post a net profit of $US3.9bn for the first half of 2018-19, according to the consensus forecast of analysts. This compares with $US4.1bn for the previous corresponding period. EBITDA is tipped to fall from $US12.8bn to $US10.6bn, although an expected strong rise in the petroleum division’s EBITDA will help offset the underperformance elsewhere in BHP’s portfolio. Meanwhile, BHP’s interim dividend is expected to fall from $US0.55 per share to $US0.53, although the downturn in the Australian dollar will boost the dividend payout of local investors.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, VALE SA

Investors win from BHP, Rio cash surge

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 40 : 18-Feb-19

BHP returned $US10.5bn to investors in 2018, while Rio Tinto returned some $US12.5bn. Both resources groups are expected to have large cash balances when their latest financial results are released in the next week or so, and the recent rally in the iron ore price will further boost their cash holdings during 2019. James Eginton of the Tribeca Natural Resource Fund says BHP and Rio Tinto should consider using some of their franking credits via special dividends in the next six months, in preparation for a possible change of federal government.

CORPORATES
BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, TRIBECA NATURAL RESOURCES FUND, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, VALE SA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Beach lifts profit guidance as more growth tipped

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 14-Feb-19

Beach Energy has posted a 2081-19 interim net profit of $282.9m and underlying earnings of $278.8m. Sales rose by 169 per cent to $1.057bn, and Beach has upgraded its full-year EBITDA forecast in response to its strong performance in the first half. CEO Matt Kay says the oil and gas group will consider acquisitions, but he stresses that any deals would need to add value for shareholders. Shares in Beach closed 5.3 per cent higher at $1.78 on 13 February.

CORPORATES
BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, LATTICE ENERGY LIMITED, SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SVW, BP PLC, CUE ENERGY RESOURCES NL – ASX CUE, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Macquarie chief backs loan brokers

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 19 & 23 : 13-Feb-19

Macquarie Group has affirmed that it expects profit growth of around 15 per cent for fiscal 2019, which suggests a full-year profit of at least $3bn. Meanwhile, Macquarie has more than $24bn worth of capital reserves at present, but CEO Shemara Wikramanayake has stressed the need for discipline with regard to risk management in the current environment. She has also expressed support for the mortgage broking industry in the wake of the financial services royal commission.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, CADENCE CAPITAL LIMITED – ASX CDT, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, QUADRANT ENERGY PTY LTD, PROPERTY EXCHANGE AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

JB Hi-Fi surges as tech reigns

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 19 : 12-Feb-19

Consumer electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi has posted a 2018-19 interim net profit of $160.1m, which is 5.5 per cent higher than previously. JB Hi-Fi has forecast that its full-year net profit will be within the range of $237m to $245m; full-year sales are expected to be $7.1bn, after sales totalled $3.843bn in the first half. CEO Richard Murray says consumers still seem to be buying gadgets such as smartphones and internet-connected fridges, at a time when many discretionary retailers are struggling.

CORPORATES
JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, THE GOOD GUYS, OPHIR ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Comyn confident about house prices

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis, Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 21 : 7-Feb-19

The Commonwealth Bank has posted a 2018-19 interim cash profit of $4.77bn, which is 2.1 per cent lower than previously. Mortgage and business lending rose by four per cent and five per cent respectively during the half-year, while lending margins were affected by factors such as increased competition and rising funding costs. Meanwhile, CEO Matt Comyn forecasts that growth in housing credit will slow in 2019, although he does not anticipate a sharp decline in house prices.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Stockland, Mirvac and Lendlease face settlement risk

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Original article by Ben Wilmot, Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 17 & 23 : 31-Jan-19

UBS says settlement risk could be a problem for Mirvac, Lendlease and Stockland in coming years as a result of the downturn in Australia’s apartment market. US believes that Mirvac is most vulnerable to settlement risk; however, such concerns have been downplayed by the head of Mirvac’s residential division, Stuart Penklis. Meanwhile, Dominic Lambrinos of Chifley Securities says some developers could be forced to sell development sites at a discount.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP, CHIFLEY SECURITIES, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED