BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Whitehaven on track for record profit in 2019

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Original article by Luke Housego
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 18-Jan-19

Whitehaven Coal has advised that it still expects to meet its 2018-19 production guidance of 22-23 million tonnes. Production rose by 11 per cent year-on-year in the December quarter, although sales were seven per cent lower than previously. Whitehaven has indicated that its full-year costs are expected to increase by 4.7 per cent to $67 per tonne. Whitehaven shares closed 3.7 per cent higher at $4.71 on 17 January.

CORPORATES
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED

Looming federal election puts a dampener on dealmaking

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Original article by Scott Murdoch
The Australian – Page: 13 & 18 : 17-Jan-19

Data from Acuris shows that mergers and acquisitions activity in Australia totalled $US88.5bn ($123bn) in 2018, compared with $US85.6bn previously. Joe Fayyad from Bank of America Merrill Lynch notes that the upcoming federal election will affect inbound M&A activity in 2019, which will boost local companies’ ability to transact deals. Meanwhile, Aidan Allen of UBS expects M&A activity in 2019 to be dominated by private equity firms and Australian companies making offshore acquisitions.

CORPORATES
ACURIS, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AMCOR LIMITED – ASX AMC, BEMIS MANUFACTURING COMPANY, REECE AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX REH, MORSCO, WORLEYPARSONS LIMITED – ASX WOR, JACOBS ENGINEERING GROUP INCORPORATED, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Citi eyes value in beaten-down media sector

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Original article by Lilly Vitorovich
The Australian – Page: 20 : 16-Jan-19

Citigroup has downgraded its 2018-19 earnings-per-share forecasts for listed media groups, including Nine Entertainment Company, Seven West Media and Southern Cross Media. The investment bank has also reduced its share price targets for these stocks, although its recommendations on Nine, Seven, Southern Cross and News Corporation have been upgraded.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, HT&E LIMITED – ASX HT1, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA

Health insurers’ poor prognosis

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Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 17 & 19 : 15-Jan-19

HBF CEO John Van Der Wielen says that affordability concerns remain an issue for the health insurance sector. Members Own Health Fund CEO Matthew Koce warns that even a small fall in private health insurance membership could have a big impact on the public hospital system, given that 40 per cent of medical procedures are carried out in private hospitals. Dwayne Crombie of Bupa notes that not everyone understands the community-rated health system under which health insurers operate; the system means that costs are spread across all fund members.

CORPORATES
HBF HEALTH LIMITED, MEMBERS OWN HEALTH FUNDS LIMITED, BUPA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, THE HOSPITAL CONTRIBUTIONS FUND OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NHF

Which industries can expect pay rise in 2019

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Original article by Lucas Baird
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 11-Jan-19

Information and communications technology is one of just three areas that 1st Executive director Andrew Thoseby says people wanting to change career paths to get a pay rise should switch to. He says the other two areas are insolvency accounting and sales. Executive headhunter Kylie Hammond is advising job applicants to seek out industries she describes as "recession-proof", including aged-care and health. Touchstone Executive Search MD Chris Kliengbeil does not expect much growth in fixed remuneration in the fast-moving consumer goods and retail sector in 2019.

CORPORATES
1ST EXECUTIVE PTY LTD, TOUCHSTONE EXECUTIVE SEARCH

Industry super roars to the lead

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Original article by Joanna Mather
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 4 : 9-Jan-19

Rice Warner forecasts that industry superannuation funds will hold assets worth $800m in 2020, displacing self-managed super funds as the sector’s largest asset managers. Rice Warner also estimates that industry funds’ assets will top $1bn in 2024 and $1.7trn in 2033. Industry funds will boast a 37 per cent share of the market in 2033, ahead of SMSFs (30 per cent) and retail funds (23 per cent). Industry experts note that employers are becoming more willing to embrace industry funds, while the fallout from the financial services royal commission is expected to accelerate the shift from retail funds to industry funds.

CORPORATES
RICE WARNER ACTUARIES PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED, INDUSTRY SUPER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, HOST-PLUS, CONSTRUCTION AND BUILDING UNIONS’ SUPERANNUATION FUND, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, VANGUARD INVESTMENTS AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Challenging year in the offing for ASX listings

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Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 & 16 : 8-Jan-19

More than 130 companies debuted on the Australian sharemarket in 2018, but stock exchange operator ASX Limited expects the environment for new listings to be difficult in 2019. Max Cunningham, the ASX’s executive general manager of listings, says the first quarter in particular will be challenging given the recent market volatility, although the outlook for calendar 2019 will become clearer by March or April. He adds that several large technology companies are looking at IPOs, and he notes increased listing activity in the mining sector.

CORPORATES
ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, COLES GROUP LIMITED – ASX COL, PROPERTY EXCHANGE AUSTRALIA, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED – ASX WTC, XERO LIMITED – ASX XRO, APPEN LIMITED – ASX APX

Apartment prices to come under pressure

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 7-Jan-19

BIS Oxford Economics estimates that 17,000 additional high-rise apartments will hit the Melbourne market in 2019, compared with 13,500 in 2018. Likewise, some 26,300 apartments in Sydney are expected to be completed in 2019, down from 28,000 in the previous year. The large number of apartments coming onto the market is expected to put further pressure on prices, while Angie Zigomanis of BIS notes that there may also be an increase in vacancy rates and a corresponding fall in rents.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WORLD CLASS LAND (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, ASPIAL CORPORATION LIMITED

Cashed-up PE firms warned on overpaying

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Original article by Bo Seo, Jemima Whyte
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 15 : 3-Jan-19

Data from the Australian Private Equity & Venture Capital Association shows that the private equity sector completed $6.9bn worth of deals in 2018. Private equity firms have an additional $9.7bn available for acquisitions in 2019. However, Quadrant Private Equity’s executive chairman Chris Hadley says they must avoid paying too much, particularly for lower-quality assets. Meanwhile, experts say the private equity sector’s business model is changing, with more funds opting to partner with super funds and other institutional investors.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRIVATE EQUITY AND VENTURE CAPITAL ASSOCIATION LIMITED, QUADRANT PRIVATE EQUITY PTY LTD, TPG CAPITAL LP, PACIFIC EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, GREENCROSS LIMITED – ASX GXL, PETCO ANIMAL SUPPLIES INCORPORATED, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, WESTCONNEX, KKR AND COMPANY LP, MYOB GROUP LIMITED – ASX MYO, BGH CAPITAL PTY LTD, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, NAVITAS LIMITED – ASX NVT, THE CARLYLE GROUP, CAMPBELL INTERNATIONAL, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Retailers hope for big bang finish

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 20-Dec-18

The Australian Retailers Association expects consumers to spend nearly $15bn during the last five trading days before Christmas. It still anticipates that Christmas spending will increase by 2.9 per cent in 2018. Many retailers are also counting on a spike in sales during the final days before Christmas, after less price discounting than in 2017. Meanwhile, Craig Woolford of Citigroup says consumers may spend less during the traditional post-Christmas clearance sales due to the impact of recent online promotions such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, VEND LIMITED, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL, REBEL SPORT LIMITED