BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Challenging year in the offing for ASX listings

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Original article by William McInnes
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 & 16 : 8-Jan-19

More than 130 companies debuted on the Australian sharemarket in 2018, but stock exchange operator ASX Limited expects the environment for new listings to be difficult in 2019. Max Cunningham, the ASX’s executive general manager of listings, says the first quarter in particular will be challenging given the recent market volatility, although the outlook for calendar 2019 will become clearer by March or April. He adds that several large technology companies are looking at IPOs, and he notes increased listing activity in the mining sector.

CORPORATES
ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, COLES GROUP LIMITED – ASX COL, PROPERTY EXCHANGE AUSTRALIA, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED – ASX WTC, XERO LIMITED – ASX XRO, APPEN LIMITED – ASX APX

Apartment prices to come under pressure

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 7-Jan-19

BIS Oxford Economics estimates that 17,000 additional high-rise apartments will hit the Melbourne market in 2019, compared with 13,500 in 2018. Likewise, some 26,300 apartments in Sydney are expected to be completed in 2019, down from 28,000 in the previous year. The large number of apartments coming onto the market is expected to put further pressure on prices, while Angie Zigomanis of BIS notes that there may also be an increase in vacancy rates and a corresponding fall in rents.

CORPORATES
BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WORLD CLASS LAND (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, ASPIAL CORPORATION LIMITED

Cashed-up PE firms warned on overpaying

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Original article by Bo Seo, Jemima Whyte
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 15 : 3-Jan-19

Data from the Australian Private Equity & Venture Capital Association shows that the private equity sector completed $6.9bn worth of deals in 2018. Private equity firms have an additional $9.7bn available for acquisitions in 2019. However, Quadrant Private Equity’s executive chairman Chris Hadley says they must avoid paying too much, particularly for lower-quality assets. Meanwhile, experts say the private equity sector’s business model is changing, with more funds opting to partner with super funds and other institutional investors.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN PRIVATE EQUITY AND VENTURE CAPITAL ASSOCIATION LIMITED, QUADRANT PRIVATE EQUITY PTY LTD, TPG CAPITAL LP, PACIFIC EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, GREENCROSS LIMITED – ASX GXL, PETCO ANIMAL SUPPLIES INCORPORATED, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, WESTCONNEX, KKR AND COMPANY LP, MYOB GROUP LIMITED – ASX MYO, BGH CAPITAL PTY LTD, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, NAVITAS LIMITED – ASX NVT, THE CARLYLE GROUP, CAMPBELL INTERNATIONAL, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Retailers hope for big bang finish

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 20-Dec-18

The Australian Retailers Association expects consumers to spend nearly $15bn during the last five trading days before Christmas. It still anticipates that Christmas spending will increase by 2.9 per cent in 2018. Many retailers are also counting on a spike in sales during the final days before Christmas, after less price discounting than in 2017. Meanwhile, Craig Woolford of Citigroup says consumers may spend less during the traditional post-Christmas clearance sales due to the impact of recent online promotions such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, VEND LIMITED, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL, REBEL SPORT LIMITED

Super members on track for first loss since 2011

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Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 13 & 18 : 19-Dec-18

Data from SuperRatings shows that the median balanced superannuation fund has gained just 1.8 per cent so far in 2018. The firm says the median fund is likely to post a negative return for the full year, after shedding 3.1 per cent in October and 0.6 per cent in November. SuperRatings’ executive director Kirby Rappell says the market volatility of recent months is likely to continue in 2019. However, SuperRatings notes that balanced funds have delivered strong returns over a 10-year period.

CORPORATES
SUPERRATINGS PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Seven ponders WA regional paper sale

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 17-Dec-18

Seven West Media has declined to comment on speculation that it may seek a buyer for some of its regional newspapers in Western Australia. News Corp Australia and Nine Entertainment Company are also believed to be interested in divesting some regional newspapers, and industry insiders say there could be potential for a single buyer to acquire assets from all three companies given that the newspapers have limited geographic overlap.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, WEST REGIONAL NEWSPAPERS, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN COMMUNITY MEDIA, AUSTRALIAN REGIONAL MEDIA, HT&E LIMITED – ASX HT1, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ALLEGRO FUNDS PTY LTD, ANCHORAGE CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD, TPG CAPITAL LP, DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA

Enterprise deals face extinction

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Original article by Ewin Hannan
The Australian – Page: 4 : 13-Dec-18

The proportion of workers in the private sector that are covered by enterprise agreement has fallen from 19 per cent in 2013 to 12 per cent in 2017, according the Australia Institute’s Centre for Future Work. Its report shows that the number of private-sector employees who are covered by enterprise agreements has declined by more than 660,000 since 2013. It concludes that if the current trend continues, fewer than two per cent of private sector employees could be covered by enterprise agreements by 2030.

CORPORATES
THE AUSTRALIA INSTITUTE LIMITED

CBA adds to banks’ $1bn bill

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 12-Dec-18

The Commonwealth Bank of Australia has advised that its 2018-19 interim financial results will include an extra $300m in provisions associated with compliance and remediation programs. CBA also announced a provision of $55m for transaction and separation costs regarding the sale of its life insurance business. The bank had previously disclosed a provision of $270m in relation to the ‘fee-for-no-service’ scandal. Australia’s four major banks have now incurred some $1.4bn worth of compensation and compliance costs in the wake of the financial services royal commission.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, COMMINSURE LIFE, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT. AUSTRALIAN TRANSACTION REPORTS AND ANALYSIS CENTRE, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED

Volatility can’t stop deal-hungry companies

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 21 & 25 : 7-Dec-18

Herbert Smith Freehills partner Tony Damian believes that 2019 will be a stronger year than 2018 for mergers and acquisitions, and John Pickhaver of Macquarie Capital is similarly optimistic. Herbert Smith Freehills predicts that superannuation funds will show a continued willingness to be directly involved in M&A deals in 2019, while healthcare, property and infrastructure are tipped to be popular sectors for M&A activity in 2019. Announced 2018 Australian M&A deals totalled $US155.9 billion ($215.4 billion) as of 5 December, according to Refinitiv.

CORPORATES
HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, GRAINCORP LIMITED – ASX GNC, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, COLES GROUP LIMITED – ASX COL, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, GREENCROSS LIMITED – ASX GXL, TPG TELECOM LIMITED – ASX TPM, VODAFONE AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, BGH CAPITAL PTY LTD, APA GROUP – ASX APA, CHEUNG KONG (HOLDINGS) LIMITED, BINGO INDUSTRIES LIMITED – ASX BIN, DIAL A DUMP INDUSTRIES PTY LTD, REFINITIV

Weak wages a threat to Xmas sales

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Original article by John Kehoe, Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 6-Dec-18

The latest GDP data shows that the Australian economy expanded by just 0.3 per cent in the September quarter, compared with economists’ expectations of 0.6 per cent growth. Economists have attributed the fall in consumer spending to low wages growth and raised concerns about the outlook for retail sales during the Christmas trading period. Recent research by the Australian Retailers Association and Roy Morgan found that Christmas spending will increase by 2.9 per cent in 2018. The GDP data may affect the timing of any change in official interest rates, but the federal government still expects to post a Budget surplus in 2019-20.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN RETAILERS ASSOCIATION, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MJ BALE, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, RETAIL APPAREL GROUP PTY LTD, CITIBANK PTY LTD