BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Manufacturing, mining to power capex rebound

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Original article by John Kehoe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 30-Nov-18

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that capital expenditure in the private sector is now expected to top $114.1bn in 2018-19, compared with a previous forecast of $102bn. The mining and manufacturing sectors are tipped to be the key drivers of the upturn in capital expenditure. Meanwhile, the figures show that private sector capex fell by 0.5 per cent in the September quarter, primarily due to lower expenditure in the mining sector.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, JP MORGAN SECURITIES AUSTRALIA LIMITED, TD SECURITIES, COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Super mergers could save $1.8bn

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 17 & 24 : 26-Nov-18

The Productivity Commission claims that $1.8 billion in savings could be gained each year if Australia’s 50 highest-cost superannuation funds were forced to merge with the 10 lowest-cost funds. The Commission’s research indicates that around eight per cent of all superannuation accounts are "trapped" in funds that have high fees and generally underperform, while there are 93 funds with less than $1 billion in assets. Its figures come as the banking royal commission prepares to take the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority to task over its tardy oversight of the superannuation sector.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Seven West tightens belt in slow ad market

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Original article by Lilly Vitorovich, Stephen Brook
The Australian – Page: 21 : 15-Nov-18

Seven West Media has advised that its net cost savings for 2018-19 will be within the range of $20m to $30m, compared with previous guidance of $10m to $20m. CEO Tim Worner says Seven will seek to capitalise on any opportunities that arise from the proposed merger between Nine Entertainment and Fairfax Media. Meanwhile, chairman Kerry Stokes has told Seven’s AGM that foreign digital platforms continue to have an advantage over traditional media companies in competing for advertising revenue.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, CRICKET AUSTRALIA, BIG BASH LEAGUE, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Woolies to return $1.7b to shareholders

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 13-Nov-18

Shaun Cousins of JP Morgan estimates that the sale of Woolworths’ fuel retailing business will reduce earnings per share by 7.4 per cent in 2020 and 8.1 per cent in 2021. However, the impact on EPS would be lower if Woolworths opts to return the proceeds of the sale to shareholders via a buyback. Woolworths is widely tipped to return most of the sale proceeds to investors, having initially flagged its intention to use some of the funds to reduce to debt and finance store refurbishments.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, EG GROUP, MASTERS HOME IMPROVEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BP PLC, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, AUSTRALIAN LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY GROUP LIMITED, ENDEAVOUR DRINKS

Westpac challenged on growth

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 23 : 7-Nov-18

Credit Suisse and Bell Potter have upgraded their earnings forecasts for Westpac following the release of the bank’s latest full-year financial results. Credit Suisse expects Westpac’s cash profit to rise to $8.29bn in 2018-19, after a flat profit of $8.07bn for 2017-18. Meanwhile, Macquarie Group and Morgan Stanley have reduced their earnings-per-share forecasts, and Victor German of Macquarie expects Westpac’s earnings growth in 2018-19 to be "negligible".

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Adani’s cut-price Carmichael coal

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 28 : 6-Nov-18

Adani recently gave indications that thermal coal from its Carmichael mine in Queensland is likely to boast energy content of around 5,500 kilocalories per kilogram. Rory Simington of Wood Mackenzie estimates that if the coal were offered to buyers at current market prices, it would be likely to fetch between $US50 and $U55 per tonne. This compares with $US106 per tonne at present for higher-grade coal from the Hunter Valley. Simington expects Adani’s coal to have an energy content of 4,800 kilocalories per kilogram, although he adds that washing the coal could increase this to around 5,500 kilocalories.

CORPORATES
ADANI MINING PTY LTD, WOOD MACKENZIE, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

NAB goes back to business for growth

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 2-Nov-18

National Australia Bank has posted cash earnings of $5.7bn for 2017-18, which is 14 per cent lower than previously. Cash earnings for the year to 30 September fell by two per cent when restructuring costs and customer remediation charges are excluded. NAB’s consumer and wealth management division’s earnings fell by 5.8 per cent, although its business and private banking division’s earnings rose 2.5 per cent. CEO Andrew Thorburn is upbeat about NAB’s earnings outlook.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, MLC LIFETIME COMPANY LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Relief looms for lower-grade ore miners

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 30-Oct-18

The price of benchmark iron ore with 62 per cent iron content has risen to its highest level for eight months in late October. Macquarie attributes the recent rally to factors such as an increase in Chinese steel production ahead of government-mandated winter cutbacks and growing demand for lower-grade iron ore amid falling margins. Macquarie notes that stockpiles of lower-grade Australian ore have fallen in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the discount for lower-grade ore is expected to narrow, which will benefit companies such as Fortescue Metals Group and Mineral Resources.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BCI MINERALS LIMITED – ASX BCI, CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INCORPORATED, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, BROCKMAN MINING LIMITED – ASX BCK

The big banks facing a full-year profit hit

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 29-Oct-18

The consensus of analysts is that the ANZ Bank will post a cash profit of $6.2bn for the year to 30 September, down from $6.9bn previously. National Australia Bank’s full-year cash profit is tipped to fall from $6.64bn to $5.47bn, but Westpac’s cash profit is forecast to rise from $8.06bn previously to $8.13bn. Factors such as customer remediation costs and falling net interest margins are expected to weigh on the earnings of the three big banks. The Commonwealth Bank’s cash profit for the year to 30 June fell by 4.7 per cent to $9.4bn.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT. AUSTRALIAN TRANSACTION REPORTS AND ANALYSIS CENTRE

Iron ore shipments drop 8.6pc as Fortescue Metals Group starts $500m buyback

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Original article by Rushil Dutta
The West Australian – Page: Online : 26-Oct-18

Pure-play iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group still expects its 2018-19 production to be within the range of 165 million to 173 million tonnes. This is despite its shipments for the first quarter falling by 8.6 per cent year-on-year to 40.2 million tonnes. Fortescue has also advised that its cash production costs rose by nine per cent in the September quarter, to an average of $US13.19 per wet metric tonne. Costs for the full year are expected to be within its previous guidance of $US12 to $US13 per wet metric tonne.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG