BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Westpac challenged on growth

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 23 : 7-Nov-18

Credit Suisse and Bell Potter have upgraded their earnings forecasts for Westpac following the release of the bank’s latest full-year financial results. Credit Suisse expects Westpac’s cash profit to rise to $8.29bn in 2018-19, after a flat profit of $8.07bn for 2017-18. Meanwhile, Macquarie Group and Morgan Stanley have reduced their earnings-per-share forecasts, and Victor German of Macquarie expects Westpac’s earnings growth in 2018-19 to be "negligible".

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Adani’s cut-price Carmichael coal

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 28 : 6-Nov-18

Adani recently gave indications that thermal coal from its Carmichael mine in Queensland is likely to boast energy content of around 5,500 kilocalories per kilogram. Rory Simington of Wood Mackenzie estimates that if the coal were offered to buyers at current market prices, it would be likely to fetch between $US50 and $U55 per tonne. This compares with $US106 per tonne at present for higher-grade coal from the Hunter Valley. Simington expects Adani’s coal to have an energy content of 4,800 kilocalories per kilogram, although he adds that washing the coal could increase this to around 5,500 kilocalories.

CORPORATES
ADANI MINING PTY LTD, WOOD MACKENZIE, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

NAB goes back to business for growth

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 2-Nov-18

National Australia Bank has posted cash earnings of $5.7bn for 2017-18, which is 14 per cent lower than previously. Cash earnings for the year to 30 September fell by two per cent when restructuring costs and customer remediation charges are excluded. NAB’s consumer and wealth management division’s earnings fell by 5.8 per cent, although its business and private banking division’s earnings rose 2.5 per cent. CEO Andrew Thorburn is upbeat about NAB’s earnings outlook.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, MLC LIFETIME COMPANY LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, MITSUBISHI UFJ FINANCIAL GROUP INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Relief looms for lower-grade ore miners

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 30-Oct-18

The price of benchmark iron ore with 62 per cent iron content has risen to its highest level for eight months in late October. Macquarie attributes the recent rally to factors such as an increase in Chinese steel production ahead of government-mandated winter cutbacks and growing demand for lower-grade iron ore amid falling margins. Macquarie notes that stockpiles of lower-grade Australian ore have fallen in recent weeks. Meanwhile, the discount for lower-grade ore is expected to narrow, which will benefit companies such as Fortescue Metals Group and Mineral Resources.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BCI MINERALS LIMITED – ASX BCI, CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INCORPORATED, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, BROCKMAN MINING LIMITED – ASX BCK

The big banks facing a full-year profit hit

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 29-Oct-18

The consensus of analysts is that the ANZ Bank will post a cash profit of $6.2bn for the year to 30 September, down from $6.9bn previously. National Australia Bank’s full-year cash profit is tipped to fall from $6.64bn to $5.47bn, but Westpac’s cash profit is forecast to rise from $8.06bn previously to $8.13bn. Factors such as customer remediation costs and falling net interest margins are expected to weigh on the earnings of the three big banks. The Commonwealth Bank’s cash profit for the year to 30 June fell by 4.7 per cent to $9.4bn.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. ATTORNEY-GENERAL’S DEPT. AUSTRALIAN TRANSACTION REPORTS AND ANALYSIS CENTRE

Iron ore shipments drop 8.6pc as Fortescue Metals Group starts $500m buyback

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Original article by Rushil Dutta
The West Australian – Page: Online : 26-Oct-18

Pure-play iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group still expects its 2018-19 production to be within the range of 165 million to 173 million tonnes. This is despite its shipments for the first quarter falling by 8.6 per cent year-on-year to 40.2 million tonnes. Fortescue has also advised that its cash production costs rose by nine per cent in the September quarter, to an average of $US13.19 per wet metric tonne. Costs for the full year are expected to be within its previous guidance of $US12 to $US13 per wet metric tonne.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

AGL could face savage hit to earnings

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 25-Oct-18

Morgan Stanley estimates that the federal government’s proposed measures to reduce electricity prices could potentially slash the 2020 EBITDA of AGL Energy and Origin Energy by up to $361m and $426m respectively. Matthew Blumberg of Hayberry Global Fund adds that government intervention in the electricity sector could in fact result in reduced competition and enable the major players to increase their market share.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, HAYBERRY GLOBAL FUND, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, ENERGYAUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CLP HOLDINGS LIMITED, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY REGULATOR

BHP dials down copper target after unplanned outages

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 & 24 : 18-Oct-18

BHP Billiton’s production report for the September quarter shows that the resources giant has scaled back its forecast for copper output in 2018-19. BHP expects full-year production to be within the range of 1.62 million to 1.705 million tonnes, compared with previous guidance of 1.67 million to 1.77 million tonnes. The downgrade has been attributed to disruptions at the Olympic Dam mine in South Australia and the Spence project in Chile. Meanwhile, BHP’s iron ore shipments totalled 69.42 million tonnes during the quarter, and the company still expects Pilbara iron ore volumes of 273 million to 283 million tonnes for the full year.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

Nine, Fairfax cuts won’t hit newsrooms

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 15-Oct-18

Grant Samuel & Associates has deemed Fairfax Media’s proposed merger with Nine Entertainment Company to be in the best interests of the newspaper publisher’s shareholders. The scheme booklet for the merger indicates that the deal is expected to generate cost synergies of about $50m a year, primarily by combining the sales teams and back-office functions, and by using shared technology platforms. The scheme booklet has emphasised that there are no plans to combine the Fairfax and Nine newsrooms or retrench journalists. However, it concedes that job losses in other areas are likely.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, GRANT SAMUEL AND ASSOCIATES PTY LTD, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA

Foxtel’s critical year: News Corp has Plan B

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 15-Oct-18

News Corporation has declined to comment on suggestions that it could divest Foxtel if the pay-TV company’s financial performance does not improve. Kane Hannan of Goldman Sachs recently met with News Corp executives in the US, and he has told clients that he was left with the firm impression that the media giant may be open to selling Foxtel. The upcoming launch of Foxtel’s sports-focused streaming video service is likely to be crucial to any turnaround. Hannan expects Foxtel’s average revenue per user to fall by six per cent a year to $57 by 2022-23, compared with around $77 in 2017-18.

CORPORATES
NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FOX SPORTS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, 21ST CENTURY FOX INCORPORATED, WALT DISNEY COMPANY, AMPLIFY, MYSPACE