BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

High prices to drive spring rural listings

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 27-Aug-18

The drought does not seem to have had too much impact on the value of farm properties in New South Wales, with values in some areas rising by 30 per cent over the past 12 months. Andrew Street of Landmark Harcourts says there is a lot of interest in cotton properties at the moment. Sam Hempinstall of Michael Keating International expects demand for Victorian rural estate to exceed supply during the 2018 spring, with good interest coming from both Asia and Europe.

CORPORATES
LANDMARK HARCOURTS PTY LTD, MICHAEL KEATING INTERNATIONAL PTY LTD, ELDERS LIMITED – ASX ELD, LABOUR PARTY (NEW ZEALAND)

Warning over gas glut: Oil Search

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Andrew White
The Australian – Page: 23 : 22-Aug-18

Oil Search has posted a 2018 interim net profit of $US79.2m ($107.7m), which is 39 per cent lower than previously. Production fell by 31 per cent to 10.24 million barrels of oil equivalent after its Papua New Guinea operations were disrupted by an earthquake in February. Oil Search expects full-year output of 24 million to 26 million boe. Meanwhile, CEO Peter Botten has questioned whether all four of the proposed LNG import terminals in the eastern states would be economically viable.

CORPORATES
OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION

Seven West open to closer News Corp ties

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 22-Aug-18

Seven West Media has posted a 2017-18 net profit of $135.8m, following a $744.3m loss in the previous financial year. Revenue was 3.2 per cent lower at $1.6bn and underlying EBIT fell 9.9 per cent to $235.6m, while Seven forecasts growth in underlying EBIT of 5-10 per cent in 2018-19. CEO Tim Worner says Seven may seek to strengthen its commercial partnerships or forge new deals in the wake of Nine Entertainment’s proposed merger with Fairfax Media. He notes that Seven already has an alliance with News Corp, but he has downplayed suggestions of a merger.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, YAHOO!7 COMMUNICATIONS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MARTIN CURRIE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED, PRIME MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX PRT

Music to the ears of investors as the beats go on

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 21-Aug-18

The August corporate reporting season in Australia has generally been positive, with about half the companies that have reported to date announcing earnings and dividend payouts that met expectations. This has been reflected in share prices, with stocks that have beaten expectations rising by 2.8 per cent on average and those that failed to do so tending to fall by around three per cent. However, Jason Steed of JP Morgan notes that earnings per share forecasts have been downgraded for 29 per cent of stocks, while just nine per cent have been upgraded.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, COLLECTION HOUSE LIMITED – ASX CLH, ARB CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX ARB, COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED – ASX CCL, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, MINERAL RESOURCES LIHIR PTY LTD, PACT GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX PGH, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, ANSELL LIMITED – ASX ANN

Fortescue chair Forrest’s dividend hit

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 20-Aug-18

Fortescue Metals Group posted a net profit of $US2.09bn in 2016-17, but the consensus of analysts is that its profit for 2017-18 will be around 49 per cent lower. JPMorgan is more bearish, forecasting that Fortescue’s net profit could fall by up to 59 per cent to just $US856m. The firm expects Fortescue to announce a full-year dividend of $0.20 per share, following an interim dividend of $0.11. Company founder and chairman Andrew Forrest received $467m worth of dividend payments in 2016-17, but this could fall to just $207.7m in 2017-18 based on JPMorgan’s numbers.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, GLENCORE PLC, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX NST, HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD

Risks are real even in blur of reporting season

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 15-Aug-18

The earnings outlook for Australian companies has been encouraging so far in the August reporting season. There has been an 0.5 per cent increase in the consensus estimate for growth in earnings per share over the next year, based on financial results to date. Local investors have largely shrugged off global issues such as the downturn in the Turkish lira and continued trade tensions between the US and China. However, local shares – and other asset classes – remain vulnerable to external risks.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, DEXUS – ASX DXS, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

JB Hi-Fi growth slows as competition intensifies

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 16 : 14-Aug-18

Consumer electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi has posted a 2017-18 underlying net profit of $233.2m, which is 12.3 per cent higher than previously. Group earnings rose 14.5 per cent to $350.6m, while its Australian division’s earnings were 11.4 per cent higher at $292.3m. Sales grew by 21.8 per cent in 2017-18, but expectations of competition from key rivals and fewer store openings have prompted the company to pare back its sales growth forecast to just 3.6 per cent in 2018-19. Shareholders will receive a full-year dividend of $0.132 per share.

CORPORATES
JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, THE GOOD GUYS, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, MARTIN CURRIE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

RBA tips lithium, copper export boom

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 19 : 13-Aug-18

Australia accounts for 12 per cent of the world’s copper reserves, along with around 25 per cent of global lithium reserves. The Reserve Bank of Australia predicts that exports of these commodities will increase to meet rising demand for renewable energy generation and electric vehicles. The RBA forecasts that lithium exports will triple over the next five years. However, the outlook for iron ore is not so clear, with demand from Chinese steel makers viewed as being somewhat mixed.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Cashed-up PE firms prowl ASX for deals

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 13-Aug-18

The value of announced mergers and acquisitions involving Australian-listed companies has topped US$39.3bn so far in 2018. Private equity investors have been particularly active; US$11.4bn ($15.6bn) worth of such deals involving both listed and unlisted assets have been announced so far in 2018, which is 47 per cent higher than at the same time in 2017. Experts anticipate that the private equity sector will continue to pursue listed companies, with Tom Story of law firm Allens noting that suitors and their targets have been more willing to agree on price in 2018.

CORPORATES
ALLENS, DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, INVESTA OFFICE FUND – ASX IOF, THE BLACKSTONE GROUP LP, SIRTEX MEDICAL LIMITED – ASX SRX, CDH INVESTMENTS FUND MANAGEMENT COMPANY, BWX LIMITED – ASX BWX, SINO GAS AND ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SEH, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, BILLABONG INTERNATIONAL LIMITED, PACIFIC EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, LIFEHEALTHCARE PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, BGH CAPITAL PTY LTD, BAIN AND COMPANY, I-MED RADIOLOGY, ACCOLADE WINES LIMITED, CHAMP PRIVATE EQUITY PTY LTD, THE CARLYLE GROUP, MANUKA HEALTH, IXOM, PEMBA CAPITAL, DEVICE TECHNOLOGIES AUSTRALIA, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AMCOR LIMITED – ASX AMC, NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE

Time for companies to splash the buyback cash

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 10-Aug-18

Berowne Hlavaty of JP Morgan says key indicators suggest that the August reporting season in Australia will be a strong one. The firm’s poll of analysts shows that 33 per cent of stocks are expected to post an earnings surprise on the upside, while only 17 per cent of stocks will surprise on the downside. JP Morgan has identified a number of companies that could potentially announce share buybacks during the reporting season. They include BHP Billiton, Westpac, Woolworths, Insurance Australia Group and Vicinity Centres.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, VICINITY CENTRES – ASX VCX, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, ANSELL LIMITED – ASX ANN, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, PLATINUM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX PTM, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, SIMS METAL MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX SGM, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, NATIONAL STORAGE REIT – ASX NSR, CHARTER HALL LONG WALE REIT – ASX CLW, LYNAS CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX LYC, IRESS LIMITED – ASX IRE, GROWTHPOINT PROPERTIES AUSTRALIA – ASX GOZ, CHARTER HALL RETAIL REIT – ASX CQR, PERSEUS MINING LIMITED – ASX PRU, CROMWELL PROPERTY GROUP – ASX CMW, PROPERTYLINK GROUP LIMITED – ASX PLG, TASSAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX TGR, CARDNO LIMITED – ASX CDD, MYOB GROUP LIMITED – ASX MYO, MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED – ASX MFG, CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA