BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

OZ commits to ongoing dividend payout

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 20-Jul-18

OZ Minerals produced 54,597 tonnes of copper in the first half of 2018, putting it on track to achieve its full-year target of 100,000 to 110,000 tonnes. Gold output totalled 58,994 ounces, and OZ Minerals expects full-year output of 120,000 to 130,000 ounces. A review of OZ’s capital management strategy is nearly complete, and CEO Andrew Cole has stressed that shareholders will continue to receive regular dividend payments despite a big increase in expenditure on exploration and development.

CORPORATES
OZ MINERALS LIMITED – ASX OZL, AVANCO RESOURCES LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, S2 RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX S2R

Evolution forecasts output reduction

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 27 : 20-Jul-18

Listed gold producer Evolution Mining has advised that its output for 2017-18 totalled 801,187 ounces, at an all-in sustaining cost of $797 per ounce. It has forecast that gold production in 2018-19 will be within the range of 720,000 to 770,000 ounces, at an all-in sustaining cost of $850 to $900 per ounce. Evolution’s operating mine cash flow reached a record $221.9m in the fourth quarter of 2017-18, and its net debt has fallen to $72m.

CORPORATES
EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN

BHP rides record iron ore wave

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 19 : 19-Jul-18

BHP Billiton will aim to produce between 241 million and 250 million tonnes of iron ore in 2018-19, after output in 2017-18 rose by three per cent to a record 238 million tonnes. BHP has attributed the 2017-18 result to factors such as record production at its Jimblebar and Mining Area C mines in the Pilbara and its rail and port operations’ productivity gains. Meanwhile, BHP has advised that its costs associated with the Samarco tailings dam disaster in Brazil are likely to rise by $US440m ($600m).

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, JEFFERIES AND COMPANY, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Warning on rush to build LNG terminals

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 20 : 17-Jul-18

Four LNG import terminals are currently mooted for Australia; two in Victoria, and one each in New South Wales and South Australia. However, Nicholas Browne from Wood Mackenzie says Australia does not need that many terminals, based on its current market forecasts. Of the four terminals currently flagged, Browne says AGL’s proposed terminal at Crib Point in Victoria is most likely to be developed first.

CORPORATES
WOOD MACKENZIE, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, EXXONMOBIL AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MITSUBISHI CORPORATION

Iron ore miners tipped to have record quarter

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 16-Jul-18

UBS estimates that Rio Tinto’s iron ore shipments from the Pilbara totalled 88.9 million tonnes in the June quarter. BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group are also expected to have had record quarterly shipments, at 71.7 million tonnes and 46.3 million tonnes respectively. Brazilian rival Vale is also expected to report record quarterly shipments, at 96.3 million tonnes. Meanwhile, UBS forecasts that BHP’s shipments from the Pilbara totalled 274 million tonnes in 2017-18, which is slightly below the resources group’s full-year guidance of 275-280 million tonnes.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, VALE SA, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE

Exchange-traded funds set for take-off

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 19 : 12-Jul-18

ETF Securities founder Graham Tuckwell is upbeat about the outlook for Australia’s exchange-traded fund market, which he expects to grow significantly in the next five years. Tuckwell says Australians have been slow to embrace ETFs while financial advisers have instead favoured actively managed funds, as they receive a commission for recommending such products to clients. He adds that active fund managers often underperform the market after their fees are taken into account.

CORPORATES
ETF SECURITIES LIMITED

House prices now set for sustained decline

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 12-Jul-18

A survey by the ANZ Bank and the Property Council of Australia has found that confidence in the nation’s residential property market has fallen sharply. The national survey of property professionals shows that there has been a significant rise in the number of respondents who expect a further decline in house prices, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. Respondents were also bearish regarding the availability of finance, and ANZ’s David Plank says this suggests that building approvals will fall in the next 6-12 months.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP

All eyes on big four as Macquarie lifts rates

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 16 : 10-Jul-18

There is growing speculation that Australia’s four major banks will increase their mortgage interest rates independently of the Reserve Bank. Macquarie is the latest bank to have advised of a rise in its variable rates for new and existing customers. Jonathan Mott of UBS says the large banks may opt to lift their rates in coming months to reflect the increase in their wholesale funding costs, although Sean Fenton of Tribeca Investment Partners notes that the major banks may be wary of attracting further political scrutiny at present. Some smaller lenders recently increased their mortgage rates.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, TRIBECA INVESTMENT PARTNERS PTY LTD, PEPPER GROUP LIMITED, AMP BANK LIMITED, SUNCORP BANK, AUSWIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX ABA, IMB LIMITED, ME BANK, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Twiggy, Santos battle over gas developments

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 17 & 27 : 10-Jul-18

Macquarie has suggested that Santos could find it hard to secure New South Wales government approval for its Narrabri coal-seam gas project if Australian Industrial Energy builds an LNG import terminal. AIE CEO James Baulderstone claims that the facility would be able to supply gas to NSW much faster and at much lower cost. However, Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher argues that gas from Narrabri would be much cheaper. The AIE consortium’s members include iron ore magnate Andrew Forrest.

CORPORATES
SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, AUSTRALIAN INDUSTRIAL ENERGY, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, NEW SOUTH WALES. DEPT OF PLANNING AND ENVIRONMENT

House prices are falling faster than expected

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Original article by Sarah Turner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 2 : 3-Jul-18

The ANZ Bank predicted in March that Australian house prices would rise by two per cent over the course of 2018, but it now expects a decline of four per cent. The bank also expects house prices to fall by two per cent in 2019. National Australia Bank is also more pessimistic about the housing market than it was in March, while Paul Dale of Capital Economics notes that the banking royal commission has already seen banks tighten their lending standards. He says house prices could potentially fall by about five per cent in 2018-19.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CAPITAL ECONOMICS LIMITED, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BIS OXFORD ECONOMICS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, LAMINAR CAPITAL, LAZARD PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA