BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

New home supply to hit decade low

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger, Michael Read
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 32 : 19-Mar-24

The Urban Development Institute of Australia has forecast that just 79,000 new home builds will be completed nationwide in 2026. This is 26 per cent lower than in 2023, and the slump in new housing supply is set to further reduce the affordability of homes and rental properties. The dire forecast also casts further doubt on the federal government’s target of building an additional 1.2 million homes over five years. Barrenjoey’s chief economist Jo Masters says this target is ‘aspirational’, and will require high rates of apartment construction; she adds that apartments have a longer construction and lead time than houses.

CORPORATES
URBAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE OF AUSTRALIA, BARRENJOEY CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD

Roy Morgan Retail Sales outlook for 2024

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Original article by By Roy Morgan’s Retail & Consumer Trends Expert Laura Demasi
Market Research Update – Page: Online : 6-Mar-24

Despite the intense cost-of-living pressures on households over 2023 the much-feared consumer spending ‘cliff’ did not come to pass, with retail sales steadied by record population growth, continued strong employment, and the dwindling remains of record household savings. With 2024 set to be another uncertain year, Roy Morgan unveils its retail sales forecast and steps through some of the factors that will shape how the year might unfold. Roy Morgan’s preliminary retail forecast for 2024 sees the year ending with retail sales still about 8.4% higher than the pre-pandemic trend; based on retail sales growing at the normal rate of 3.4% each year, which is the annual average growth rate from 2010-2023, excluding the much higher pandemic years (2020-22).

CORPORATES
ROY MORGAN LIMITED

Rio iron exports up as Mongolia bites

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 17-Jan-24

Rio Tinto’s production report for the December quarter shows that its Pilbara mines shipped 86.25 million tonnes of iron ore in the final three months of 2023, and 338.1 million tonnes in the calendar year. The resources giant is targeting shipments of between 323 million and 338 million tonnes in 2024. Rio Tinto also advised that shipments of its benchmark ‘Pilbara blend’ product fell by five per cent year-on-year, while export volumes for its lower grade SP10 ‘fines’ were 56 per cent higher; the company expects SP10 shipments to remain high until its new mines come into production. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto says it has received a new claim for unpaid taxes by the Mongolian government regarding the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Super returns lower in August

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Original article by Chris Herde
The Australian – Page: 15 : 13-Sep-23

SuperRatings estimates that the median balanced superannuation fund posted a return of minus 0.1 per cent in August, after gaining 1.5 per cent in July. The research house also expects the median growth fund to have lost 0.3 per cent in August. Executive director Kirby Rappell says monthly returns are likely to continue to "bounce around" in the near-term, due to ongoing market uncertainty. He has emphasised the need for super fund members to focus on the long-term performance.

CORPORATES
SUPERRATINGS PTY LTD

Qantas sets a course for $2.5bn profit

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Original article by Robyn Ironside
The Australian – Page: 13 & 16 : 24-May-23

Qantas has advised that its underlying profit for 2022-23 is expected to be within the range of $2.425bn to $2.725bn. This compares with a loss of $1.8bn for the previous financial year. The carrier’s quarterly update shows that air travel has rebounded from the pandemic-induced downturn; its domestic operations’ revenue is now at 118 per cent of pre-Covid levels, while its international arm’s revenue is at 123 per cent of 2019 levels. Meanwhile, seat capacity is now at 87 per cent of levels prior to the pandemic, and CEO Alan Joyce expects this to reach 93 per cent by the end of 2023.

CORPORATES
QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN

Seven downgrades its TV ad market forecast

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Original article by Sam Buckingham-Jones
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 3-May-23

Seven West Media CEO James Warburton estimates that the TV advertising market fell by 11 per cent during the March quarter, and he expects a similar decline in the June quarter. Seven West had forecast in February that the advertising sales downturn in the March quarter would be in the "mid to high single-digits". However, Warburton notes that the TV ad market often rebounds quickly after a downturn. Warburton has also advised that Seven West now expects its operating costs for 2022-23 to be within the range of $1.2bn to $1.21bn, compared with previous guidance of $1.22bn to $1.23bn.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM

Two more rate hikes on the way, tips NAB chief

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 15 & 19 : 15-Mar-23

National Australia Bank CEO Ross McEwan says the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will have little or no direct impact on NAB’s customers. However, he has acknowledged that the NAB Ventures unit has invested in five small fintech start-ups that have links to SVB. McEwan adds that the rapid demise of SVB underlines the value of Australia’s strong regulatory regime for the banking sector. Meanwhile, McEwan believes that SVB’s collapse will not deter the Reserve Bank from increasing official interest rates another two times in order to curb inflation. NAB still expects the cash rate to peak at 4.1 per cent.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, SILICON VALLEY BANK, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Target of million new homes by end of decade in jeopardy

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Original article by Mackenzie Scott
The Australian – Page: 6 : 7-Feb-23

Master Builders Australia CEO Denita Wawn says the nation’s construction industry is not building enough new homes to meet demand. The MBA has forecast that just 169,630 new homes will be built nationwide in 2022-23, well below the 200,000 that are needed each year to meet population demand. The MBA does not expect the annual new home build to reach the 200,000 threshold until 2026-27. The MBA’s forecasts will cast doubt on the federal government’s target of one million new homes in the five years from July 2024.

CORPORATES
MASTER BUILDERS AUSTRALIA INCORPORATED

Santos pumps up the sales volume with record year

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Original article by Perry Williams
The Australian – Page: 15 : 20-Jan-23

Oil and gas producer Santos has advised that its total output for calendar 2022 was 103.2 million barrels of oil equivalent. This was at the lower end of its full-year guidance, but 12 per cent higher than the previous year. Production fell by two per cent quarter-on-quarter in the final three months of 2022 after a gas leak forced the temporary closure of the John Brookes platform in November; it is not expected to resume production before the end of January, which has prompted Santos to slightly downgrade its production guidance for 2023. Meanwhile, Santos’s revenue rose by 65 per cent to a record $US7.8bn ($11.2bn) in 2022.

CORPORATES
SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO

Rio’s big new mine to hit full speed

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 18-Jan-23

Rio Tinto has advised that it expects iron ore shipments from the Pilbara in calendar 2023 to be within the range of 320 million to 335 million tonnes. This is in line with its 2022 guidance; its shipments for the year were at the bottom end of this range, at 321.6 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto has indicated that its new Gudai-Darri iron ore mine is expected to reach its maximum capacity of 43 million tonnes a year on a "sustained basis" at some stage in 2023. BHP and Fortescue Metals Group are slated to release their quarterly iron ore export data in coming days.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP GROUP LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG