BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Australia’s iron ore age nears peak

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 10 : 28-May-18

Australia now accounts for about 62 per cent of all iron ore shipments to China, compared with 43 per cent in 2010. He Ming of Wood Mackenzie forecasts that Australia’s iron ore exports to China will peak at 895 million tonnes in 2020 and 2021, before holding steady at around 884 million tonnes beyond 2023. Tony Robson of Global Mining Research expects Chinese steel mills’ demand for Australian iron ore to fall in coming years, as annual steel production peaks. Factors such as increased iron ore production in Brazil are also expected to weigh on Australian producers.

CORPORATES
WOOD MACKENZIE, GLOBAL MINING RESEARCH PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, VALE SA, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Aussie dollar vulnerable to further EM turmoil

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Patrick Commins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 28-May-18

The Australian dollar has shed three per cent against its US counterpart so far in 2018. Rodrigo Catril of National Australia Bank expects the currency to trade within a range of $US0.75 to $US0.77 for the rest of the year. However, he warns that sustained volatility in emerging markets is a potential risk for the Australian dollar. Catril adds that this risk should remain relatively low unless the volatility extends beyond countries such as Turkey, Argentina and Venezuela.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, BLOOMBERG LP

Westfield done deal for Unibail

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Turi Condon, Ben Wilmot
The Australian – Page: 23 : 24-May-18

Westfield Corporation’s shareholders are widely tipped to vote in favour of its acquisition by Unibail-Rodamco on 24 May. Winston Sammut of Folkestone Maxim Asset Management says factors such as the support of proxy advisers and the absence of a rival bid suggests that the $A30bn deal will be approved. He attributes the recent fall in Westfield’s share price to investors replacing the stock in their portfolios in expectation of the deal proceeding.

CORPORATES
WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, UNIBAIL-RODAMCO, FOLKESTONE MAXIM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, CGI GLASS LEWIS PTY LTD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG, DEXUS – ASX DXS, GPT GROUP – ASX GPT

Financial adviser exodus puts $900b of savings in flux

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Alice Uribe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 20 : 24-May-18

Research by consumer group Adviser Ratings shows that 7,000 Australian financial advisers have left the industry since 2015. An additional 14,000 are expected to do so in the next five years, primarily due to reforms that are likely to be implemented in response to the banking royal commission. The large number of advisers leaving the industry will affect around $A900m worth of clients’ funds, and Mark Hoven of Adviser Ratings says more than 25 per cent of these funds may end up not being under advice.

CORPORATES
ADVISER RATINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, AZ NGA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IFL, NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED – ASX NWL, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

ASX predicts rise of technology titans

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Yolanda Redrup
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 21-May-18

Latitude Financial and Colonial First State Global Asset Management are among the companies that could potentially list on the Australian sharemarket before the end of 2018. The bourse has traditionally been heavily weighted toward banking and resources stocks. However, ASX executive Max Cunningham says more technology companies could be added to the S&P/ASX 20 in the next decade, given that the sector continues to be the most popular among investors.

CORPORATES
LATITUDE FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT, PROSPA PTY LTD, ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, XERO LIMITED – ASX XRO, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, BIG UN LIMITED – ASX BIG, GETSWIFT LIMITED – ASX GSW

BHP explores growth options

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 20 : 17-May-18

BHP Billiton CEO Andrew Mackenzie has told a conference in the US that the group’s debt is now within its target range of $US10bn to $US15bn, compared with $US15.4bn at the end of 2017. He also flagged further capital returns to shareholders and said BHP has a range of growth options that could potentially add value to the tune of $US15bn. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques has told the conference that the resources giant may use some excess cash to finance acquisitions rather than return it to shareholders.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATION, MERRILL LYNCH AND COMPANY INCORPORATED

Fears of big job losses from inquiry fallout

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 20 : 15-May-18

Automation has already put around 50,000 financial services jobs at risk, and job losses in the sector may increase in the wake of the banking royal commission. Sally Auld of JPMorgan says the loss of jobs as a result of the inquiry could be greater than those shed during the last financial crisis. Tommy Wu of IBISWorld notes that the banking sector’s revenue has fallen by over $A10 billion in the last five years, and it could fall even further as a result of the royal commission.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, IBISWORLD PTY LTD, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RICE WARNER ACTUARIES PTY LTD, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Budget won’t curb expansion: Credit Suisse

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 30 : 10-May-18

Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse says the Federal Government’s May 2018 Budget is unlikely to have a negative impact on corporate profits. He adds that the proposed tax cuts for people on low and middle incomes are relatively modest in comparison to Australia’s record level of household debt, and the tax cuts will result in only a small decline in the debt-to-disposable-income ratio in the next several years. Tevfik still expects the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 to reach 6,500 points by the end of 2018.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, WAGNERS HOLDING COMPANY LIMITED – ASX WGN, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, LINK ADMINISTRATION HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LNK, IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IFL, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX PRY, RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX RHC, SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED – ASX SHL, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT

JB Hi-Fi stays firm on outlook

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 26 : 8-May-18

Australian-listed JB Hi-Fi has defended its decision to include a profit warning in a presentation to the recent Macquarie Australia Conference rather than issuing a statement to the stock exchange. Responding to a query from stock exchange operator ASX Limited, the consumer electronics retailer said it had been of the view that the information in the presentation would not have a material effect on its share price. JB Hi-Fi’s shares fell by more than 10 per cent following the presentation.

CORPORATES
JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, ALPHINITY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Rinehart’s Roy Hill exports yo-yo in a struggle for consistency

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 7-May-18

Roy Hill Holdings has indicated that its iron ore export volumes in April 2018 were consistent with its target of shipping 55 million tonnes a year. Although Roy Hill does not usually release data on its export volumes, Port Hedland statistics suggest that it shipped less than 11.7 million tonnes in the March 2018 quarter, which implies an annualised rate of around 47 million tonnes. Peter O’Connor of Shaw & Partners says the end of the cyclone season should enable Roy Hill to achieve its target run rate over the next three quarters.

CORPORATES
ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, PORT HEDLAND PORT AUTHORITY, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ATLAS IRON LIMITED – ASX AGO, MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX MIN, BCI MINERALS LIMITED – ASX BCI