BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Hywood signals Fairfax open to merger with free-to-air television network

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Original article by Dana McCauley
The Australian – Page: 19 : 3-May-18

Fairfax Media CEO Greg Hywood says the company is well-placed to capitalise on industry consolidation in the wake of cross-media ownership reforms. He has also argued that mergers between print and broadcasting companies are possible, although all interested parties would have to benefit from any such deal. Meanwhile, Fairfax has advised that group revenue fell by one per cent during the first 17 weeks of the second half of 2017-18; its Australian Metro Media division’s revenue was about two per cent lower than the same period in 2016-17.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, AUSTRALIAN METRO MEDIA, AUSTRALIAN COMMUNITY MEDIA, STUFF LIMITED, DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX DHA, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM

Stress test reveals risk for Australian banks

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Original article by Samantha Bailey
The Australian – Page: 28 : 1-May-18

Fitch Ratings’ mortgage "stress test" of Australia’s major banks shows that they could be vulnerable if a sharp downturn in the housing market were accompanied by a decline in consumer spending and an increase in business lending losses. Fitch warns that a sharp rise in the unemployment rate could trigger a housing market slump, but the ratings agency concludes that the four major banks could withstand such a downturn provided that other key metrics were not affected.

CORPORATES
FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Newcrest cuts gold forecast by 10pc

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 20 : 27-Apr-18

Newcrest Mining produced 576,000 ounces of gold and 19,000 ­tonnes of copper during the March quarter, with output falling by six per cent and 15.5 per cent respectively. Newcrest has downgraded its production guidance for 2017-18, with gold output expected to be within the range of 2.25 million to 2.35 million ounces. The downgrade follows the collapse of a tailings wall dam at its Cadia mine and a sharp fall in production at the Telfer mine during the quarter. Full-year copper output is now expected to be 70,000 to 75,000 tonnes.

CORPORATES
NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

BHP trims iron ore guidance due to maintenance issues

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 20-Apr-18

BHP Billiton’s iron ore production in the Pilbara totalled 57.6 million tonnes in the March quarter, which is eight per cent higher than the previous corresponding period. However, the resources group has advised that full-year output for 2017-18 will be within the range of 272 million to 274 million tonnes, due to the need for maintenance work on equipment that is used to unload rail cars. BHP had previously forecast full-year output of 275 million to 280 million tonnes. BHP has also indicated that it hopes to secure deals to sell its US shale assets in the second half of 2018.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED

Builders a sitting duck as banking royal commission comes hurtling down the track

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Original article by Robert Gottliebsen
The Australian – Page: 28 : 17-Apr-18

Australia’s builders and property developers do not seem to realise the potential impact that the banking royal commission could have on their business. They seem unaware that one of the commission’s areas of focus is on banks that having been making loans to home buyers on the basis of living expense estimates that are flawed, and that a clampdown on this practice could reduce the number of mortgage loans being issued by banks. Developers and builders could be hit hard by this, and some could potentially collapse as a result.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING, SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION

Cricket loss not all bad for Nine

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Original article by Samantha Bailey, Dana McCauley
The Australian – Page: 19 : 17-Apr-18

Tennis and cricket broadcasting rights generate a loss for the Seven and Nine networks, and this is likely to continue when the sports change networks. Nine is estimated to have lost around $A50m a year from its cricket coverage, but Citigroup forecasts that its annual losses from tennis broadcasts will be within the range of $A20m to $A30m. Meanwhile, UBS forecasts that Seven will gain an increased share of advertising revenue at the expense of Nine and Ten following their loss of cricket broadcasting rights.

CORPORATES
SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, CRICKET AUSTRALIA, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS

Activism to rise as M&A at highest since 2007

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 13-Apr-18

Data from Dealogic shows that $US32.8bn ($A42.3bn) worth of mergers and acquisitions have been announced in Australia so far in 2018. Neil Pathak of Gilbert + Tobin says M&A activity in the near-term is unlikely to be affected by heightened financial market volatility or concerns about a trade war between the US and China. The law firm also anticipates that shareholder activists will continue to target listed companies.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, GILBERT AND TOBIN LAWYERS, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, ARDENT LEISURE GROUP – ASX AAD, QUINTIS LIMITED – ASX QIN, AWE LIMITED – ASX AWE, ISENTIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX ISD, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, HARBOUR ENERGY LIMITED, TRIBECA INVESTMENT PARTNERS PTY LTD, BENNELONG FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, UNIBAIL-RODAMCO, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, AUSTRALIA. FOREIGN INVESTMENT REVIEW BOARD

Under-pressure HT&E rejects oOh!Media offer for Adshel

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Original article by Dana McCauley, Bridget Carter, Scott Murdoch
The Australian – Page: 19 : 12-Apr-18

Australian-listed HT&E has advised that oOh!Media has made a non-binding and conditional offer for its Adshel outdoor advertising division. However, HT&E’s board has deemed that the offer undervalues Adshel. Meanwhile, the company has indicated that Adshel’s revenue for the March quarter was consistent with guidance issued in February. HT&E has forecast that EBITDA for 2018 will be within the range of $A113m to $A114m.

CORPORATES
HT&E LIMITED – ASX HT1, ADSHEL PTY LTD, OOH!MEDIA LIMITED – ASX OML, AUSTRALIAN RADIO NETWORK PTY LTD, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS

Santos suitor could offload key gas assets

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 5-Apr-18

Mark Samter of Credit Suisse has identified the Cooper Basin infrastructure at the Moomba gas plant as one of the Santos assets that Harbour Energy could potentially agree to divest in order to secure approval from the Foreign Investment Review Board. Samter says Santos’s assets in Western Australia could also be earmarked for sale if the $A13.5bn takeover bid succeeds. Approval from the FIRB is widely seen as a key risk for Harbour’s bid.

CORPORATES
SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, HARBOUR ENERGY LIMITED, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. FOREIGN INVESTMENT REVIEW BOARD, WATERMARK FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, QUADRANT ENERGY PTY LTD, SOUTH AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PREMIER AND CABINET, HONY CAPITAL, ENN GROUP

Gas crisis looms as Bass Strait dries up

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 19 : 29-Mar-18

A report from the Australian Energy Market Operator forecasts that Victoria’s gas production will fall to 187 petajoules in 2022, compared with 435 petajoules in 2017. Damien Sanford of AEMO has warned that Victoria faces a gas supply shortfall from 2022 unless new sources of gas are found. The Bass Strait gas fields are rapidly being depleted, and AEMO says Victorians could face the prospect of having to restrict gas consumption on days of peak demand from 2022.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED, ESSO AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION