BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Fortescue faces iron ore discount dilemma

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 28-Mar-18

China’s growing demand for higher-grade iron ore has boosted the profits of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, while the widening discount for lower-grade ore slashed the interim earnings of Fortescue Metals Group. The pure-play miner has advised that its iron ore is now expected to fetch 65 per cent of the benchmark price, compared with its recent forecast of 70-75 per cent. The discount has widened from just five per cent in the March 2016 quarter to 35 per cent, but Fortescue still maintains that it is cyclical and will narrow over time. However, rival producers argue that the discount is structural.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INCORPORATED

BHP content with iron ore grade boost for now

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 22-Mar-18

BHP Billiton is tipped to make an investment decision on the South Flank iron ore project in Western Australia by mid-2018. The company’s average iron ore grade is 61 per cent at present, but this would rise to 62 per cent if the project is approved. However, BHP’s Edgar Basto says that aside from South Flank, BHP is unlikely to increase its average iron ore grades in the near-term. He adds that factors such as the stronger Australian dollar and rising labour costs have contributed to an increase in the expected cost of the project.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA

M&A’s hot sectors to drive healthy flow

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 19-Mar-18

Data from Dealogic shows that $US13.1bn ($A17bn) worth of mergers and acquisitions have been announced so far in 2018, which is 25 per cent higher than the same period in 2017. Herbert Smith Freehills partner Tony Damian anticipates strong M&A activity during 2018, citing healthcare as a sector which is likely to continue to attract suitors. The law firm also identifies financial services, renewable energy and infrastructure as Australian sectors in which M&A activity is likely to be high.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, AWE LIMITED – ASX AWE, MITSUI AND COMPANY LIMITED, I-MED/MIA NETWORK LIMITED, PERMIRA PRIVATE EQUITY LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, COALITION, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, QUALCOMM INCORPORATED, BROADCOM CORPORATION, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, LAZARD PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD

Newcrest in dark on Cadia restart

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 21 : 16-Mar-18

Analysts have scaled back their 2017-18 production forecasts for Newcrest Mining’s Cadia gold mine after the company advised that it is uncertain when production will resume. Peter O’Connor of Shaw Stockbroking expects output for the fiscal year to be about 570,000 ounces following the collapse of a tailings dam wall. Full-year output at the mine had been slated to be within the range of 680,00 to 780,000 ounces. Newcrest CEO Sandeep Biswas says the cause of the incident remains unknown, and it does not appear to be linked to recent seismic activity.

CORPORATES
NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, SHAW STOCKBROKING LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA

End is nigh for big four: Carnegie

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 29 : 16-Mar-18

Maile Carnegie, the ANZ Bank’s group executive for digital banking, forecasts that the four major banks will no longer dominate the Australian market within 5-10 years, with banks opting to focus on certain segments of the market. She also forecasts a greater role for technology in delivering banking services, while banks that provide services that customers actually want will be the most successful in future.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, GOOGLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, ALIBABA.COM CORPORATION, UBER AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, APPLE INCORPORATED

No hurry to unwind BHP stock split: UBS

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 22 : 16-Mar-18

A report from UBS concludes that BHP Billiton would be better off retaining its dual-listed structure for now, noting that abolishing it would have implications in terms of taxes and franking credits. The firm concludes that there may be a case for scrapping the dual listing in three years’ time, when BHP has exhausted its tax credits. A recent analysis by FTI Consulting on behalf of activist hedge fund Elliott Management concluded that the financial benefits of shifting to a primary listing in Australia could be worth around $US22bn ($A28bn) for BHP.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, FTI CONSULTING INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Credit Suisse picks top takeover targets

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Original article by Simon Evans
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 14-Mar-18

Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse expects mergers and acquisitions activity in Australia to remain strong during 2018, citing factors such as healthy balance sheets and growing business confidence. Credit Suisse has identified 31 listed stocks that could potentially become takeover targets in 2018. They include Santos, Whitehaven Coal, Nine Entertainment Company, Fairfax Media, Ardent Leisure Group, DuluxGroup, Origin Energy and Caltex Australia.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, ARDENT LEISURE GROUP – ASX AAD, DULUXGROUP LIMITED – ASX DLX, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, ADELAIDE BRIGHTON LIMITED – ASX ABC, NUFARM LIMITED – ASX NUF, PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX PRY, SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX SYR, APA GROUP – ASX APA, BLACKMORES LIMITED – ASX BKL, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, PENFOLDS WINES PTY LTD, CHINA NATIONAL CEREALS, OILS AND FOODSTUFFS IMPORT AND EXPORT CORPORATION, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, UNIBAIL-RODAMCO

Private equity upbeat on deals, record capital

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 20 : 2-Mar-18

Bain & Company has released a report which notes that the global private equity industry had some $US633bn worth of funds to invest at the end of 2017. Meanwhile, private equity experts who attended the annual Asian Venture Capital Journal conference are positive about the outlook for deal-making in Australia during 2018. Data from Dealogic shows that $US1bn ($A1.3bn) worth of deals were made in the first two months of the year.

CORPORATES
BAIN AND COMPANY, PACIFIC EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, KKR AND COMPANY LP, I-MED/MIA NETWORK LIMITED, LIFEHEALTHCARE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LHC, DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. FUTURE FUND MANAGEMENT AGENCY, BGH CAPITAL PTY LTD

Growth in India to fuel coal demand

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Original article by Ben Packham
The Australian – Page: 4 : 1-Mar-18

World Coal ­Association CEO Benjamin Sporton says demand for Australian coal will remain strong for some time, due to rising electricity consumption in India. He notes that some 300 million people in India currently do not have access to electricity, while a similar number of people are expected to migrate to India’s cities over the next 15 years. Meanwhile, high-efficiency, low-emissions coal plants with a capacity of 48 gigawatts are under construction in India.

CORPORATES
WORLD COAL ASSOCIATION, ADANI MINING PTY LTD, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE ENVIRONMENT AND ENERGY, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE

BHP on brink of bigger shareholder returns

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 22-Feb-18

Hayden Bairstow of Macquarie Group says there is potential for BHP Billiton to return an additional $US1.9bn to shareholders in the second half of 2017-18 and at least $US2.4bn in 2018-19. He adds that the latter figure could be higher if BHP sells its US shale assets and opts to distribute the proceeds to investors. However, BHP CEO Andrew Mackenzie has declined to comment on the group’s plans for the proceeds of the exit from shale. Meanwhile, BHP is expected to make a decision on its proposed South Flank iron ore mine within six months.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC