BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

NAB posts $1.65b in Q1 cash profit

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Original article by James Frost
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 9-Feb-18

Shares in National Australia Bank closed 2.3 per cent higher at $A28.90 on 8 February, after the major bank reported a cash profit of $A1.65bn for the first quarter of 2017-18. The result was three per cent higher than previously, while there was a 2.4 per decline in bad and doubtful debts. However, NAB’s expenses increased by four per cent during the quarter, and the bank expects expenses to rise by another 5-8 per cent during the remainder of the financial year. Citigroup has upgraded its recommendation on NAB’s shares to "buy".

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, INVESTORS MUTUAL LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Rio investors tipped for mighty big win

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Original article by Darren Gray
The Age – Page: 23 : 6-Feb-18

Rio Tinto will release its full-year results on 7 February, and Macquarie Wealth Management forecasts that it will reveal underlying earnings of $US8.88 billion, up 74 per cent, and that cash from operations will rise by 63 per cent to $US13.809 billion. Macquarie also predicts that Rio shareholders will receive a final dividend of $US1.96 per share. This would bring Rio’s total dividend payment for 2017 to $US3.06 per share.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MACQUARIE WEALTH MANAGEMENT

Smaller end of town to buoy ASX

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Original article by Glenda Korporaal
The Australian – Page: 25 : 31-Jan-18

A report by HLB Mann Judd notes that 37 companies have plans to list on the Australian sharemarket at present, compared with 23 at the same time in 2017. Third Party Technologies heads the list of prospective floats, with plans to raise $A123m from investors. HLB Mann Judd expects small and medium-sized companies to continue to dominate the IPO market in 2018. There were no IPOs worth more than $A1bn in 2017, and no IPOs of this size are currently in the works.

CORPORATES
HLB MANN JUDD, THIRD PARTY TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED – ASX 3PT, INDIA FUND LIMITED – ASX INF, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, COLONIAL FIRST STATE GROUP LIMITED, INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED – ASX ING, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, OFFICEWORKS SUPERSTORES PTY LTD, ARCHER CAPITAL PTY LTD, CRAVEABLE BRANDS LIMITED, OPORTO PTY LTD, RED ROOSTER FOODS, ZIP INDUSTRIES AUSTRALIA, QUADRANT PRIVATE EQUITY PTY LTD, CHAMP PRIVATE EQUITY PTY LTD, ACCOLADE WINES LIMITED

Miners ride high into new profit season

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Original article by Vesna Poljak
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 26 : 29-Jan-18

Data from Deutsche Bank shows that Australian-listed companies are forecast to achieve earnings-per-share growth of seven per cent in 2017-18. Kogan, Noni B and Lovisa are among the companies that have upgraded their earnings forecasts ahead of the February 2018 reporting season. The outlook for resources stock in particular is good, with Macquarie Group recently upgrading its share price targets for BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and South32 on the strength of its bullish price forecasts for commodities such as iron ore and coking coal in 2018.

CORPORATES
DEUTSCHE BANK AG, KOGAN.COM LIMITED – ASX KGN, NONI B LIMITED – ASX NBL, LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LOV, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, PINNACLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT GROUP LIMITED – ASX PNI, RETAIL FOOD GROUP LIMITED – ASX RFG, AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED – ASX API, McGRATH LIMITED – ASX MEA, QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, PRICELINE PHARMACY, ORIGIN ASSET MANAGEMENT, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Consumers are in surprisingly sunny mood

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 41 : 25-Jan-18

UBS forcasts that Australian retail sales will rise by 2.6 per cent overall in 2018, while growth in discretionary spending is expected to slow to just two per cent. Craig James of CommSec notes that consumers were upbeat leading into 2018, citing factors such as historically low interest rates, the strong growth in jobs in 2017 and the recent rise in the value of the Australian dollar. However, the ANZ/Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index has eased 3.3 per cent to 119.9, although consumer confidence is still higher that its long-term average of 112.9.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH SECURITIES LIMITED, ROY MORGAN LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, NONI B LIMITED – ASX NBL, ADAIRS LIMITED – ASX ADH, LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX LOV, RETAIL FOOD GROUP LIMITED – ASX RFG, THE PAS GROUP LIMITED – ASX PGR, AUSTRALIAN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRIES LIMITED – ASX API, PRICELINE PHARMACY, MICHAEL HILL INTERNATIONAL LIMITED – ASX MHJ, EMMA AND ROE, KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX KMD, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Santos’ full-year sales up 20pc

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 38 : 25-Jan-18

Oil and gas group Santos has advised that its sales rose 14 per cent in the December 2017 quarter, to $US861bn ($A1.07bn), while sales for the calendar year were up 20 per cent to $US3.1bn. Total production for the year was 3.4 per cent lower than previously at 59.5 million barrels of oil equivalent, although it was at the higher end of the company’s guidance. Santos still expects its output for 2018 to be within the range of 55 million to 60 million boe.

CORPORATES
SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, HARBOUR ENERGY LIMITED

Former insiders cast doubt on company trading update

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Original article by Su-Lin Tan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 23-Jan-18

Listed real estate firm McGrath advised the ASX of an earnings downgrade on 22 January. McGrath reported that it expects to make a loss of $A50,000 for the first half of 2017-18, although internal documents provided to a newspaper suggested that the figure might be a lot higher. Past employees of McGrath suggest that the figures it provided to the ASX were somewhat optimistic. It is also understood that Peter Malouf recently resigned as head of training at McGrath, as did Michael Conolly as head of network property management.

CORPORATES
McGRATH LIMITED – ASX MEA

UBS warning on household debt

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 19-Jan-18

New figures show that Australia’s household debt-to-income ratio has risen by three per cent to a record 199.7 per cent, which UBS notes is one of the world’s highest. The increase is largely due to the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ decision to include the debt of self-managed superannuation funds in the key indicator for the first time. UBS has forecast that the debt-to-income ratio will peak at around 205 per cent, and it has warned that rising household debt may affect demand for housing credit and the earnings of major banks. However, UBS is upbeat about the outlook for non-bank lenders.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA. ROYAL COMMISSION INTO MISCONDUCT IN THE BANKING SUPERANNUATION AND FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY

Coking coal headaches prompt BHP to cut production guidance

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 15 & 16 : 19-Jan-18

BHP Billiton has advised that its overall production for 2017-18 is expected to be six per cent higher than previously. It had forecast seven per cent growth in production in October. Meanwhile, BHP’s coking coal production fell by eight per cent during the second quarter, to 10 million tonnes, but its iron ore output in the Pilbara increased by 11 per cent to a record 72 million tonnes. BHP will report its half-year results in February, with analysts expecting a underlying interim net profit of $US4.5bn ($5.6bn), compared with $US3.2bn previously.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP

Health premium rises tipped

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Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker, Rachel Baxendale
The Australian – Page: 15 : 18-Jan-18

There is speculation that private health insurance premiums will rise by an average of four per cent in 2018. Macquarie Group analysts estimate that Medibank and NIB will increase their premiums by an average of 3.85 per cent and 3.8 per cent respectively. Macquarie has increased its share price targets for both insurers. Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt expects the lowest increase in health insurance premiums for 17 years. He will announce the premium increases in the next several weeks.

CORPORATES
MEDIBANK PRIVATE LIMITED – ASX MPL, NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NHF, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HEALTH, AUSTRALIAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION LIMITED