BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Amazon just warming up, warn analysts

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 7-Dec-17

Melanie Sanders of Bain & Company has forecast that e-commerce giant Amazon will boast Australian sales of between $A8bn and $A10bn within 5-10 years, making it the nation’s sixth-biggest retailer. Consumers have criticised the limited product range offered by Amazon when it officially launched in Australia, but Sanders argues that the company probably opted for a low-key launch in order to test its systems. Retail industry analysts have warned Australian retailers against becoming complacent based on Amazon’s local launch on 5 December, while Amazon itself says its sales for the day were higher than for any previous country launch.

CORPORATES
AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, BAIN AND COMPANY, UGAM, WORLD FIRST AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, KMART AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BUNNINGS GROUP LIMITED, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, IGA, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN

BHP expects to cut Australian mine costs by further 10pc, talks up copper prices

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 29-Nov-17

BHP Billiton has told participants at its investors’ briefing on 28 November that it aims to achieve $US2 billion in productivity gains over the next 24 months, with its Australian mines expected to account for 80 per cent of that target. Its iron ore division, which achieved unit costs of $US14.60 per tonne in the year to 30 June 2017, is expected to reduce that figure to under $US13 in the medium term. Meanwhile, BHP told investors that copper prices in 2017 had been better than forecast, and that it expects prices to again be strong in 2018.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD INCORPORATED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Nine won’t rush into mergers, Costello declares

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Darren Davidson
The Australian – Page: 18 : 14-Nov-17

Nine Entertainment Company has advised that its EBITDA for 2017-18 will be at the higher end of its newly revised range of $A204m to $A230m. It had previously flagged full-year EBITDA of between $A186m and $A207m. Meanwhile, chairman Peter Costello says the Federal Government’s cross-media ownership reforms may not lead to significant consolidation in the sector, as technology has reduced the impact of the reforms. He adds that the Nine Network’s strong ratings performance shows that the company can prosper on its own.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, CBS CORPORATION, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, CRICKET AUSTRALIA

Rinehart warns of collapse in investment

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 14-Nov-17

Mining magnate Gina Rinehart has expressed concern that the compliance burden and excessive bureaucracy pose a major threat to future investment in Australia’s mining industry and other sectors of the economy. She has called for an overhaul of the nation’s three levels of government, arguing that there is too much duplication of red tape at federal, state and local council level. Rinehart has also urged greater support for National Mining and Related Industries Day, noting that it does not receive the same amount of recognition as National Agriculture Day.

CORPORATES
HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, NATIONAL FARMERS’ FEDERATION LIMITED, FAIRFAX AGRICULTURAL MEDIA

Fortescue urged to reduce exports, raise iron grades

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 4-Nov-17

Andrew Hines has urged Fortescue Metals to lift its iron ore grades, even if that means reducing the level of its exports. Hines, an analyst with Evans & Partners, says doing this would help the level of pricing discounts applied to its product. He notes its recent strategy of lowering the grade of its product has reduced its production costs, but at the expense of the price it gets for its shipments. Hines says a "perfect storm of factors", including higher energy and transport costs, could see Fortescue posting a loss in fiscal 2019, compared to the $US2.1 billion ($A2.7 billion) net profit it announced in August.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Iron ore market doesn’t warrant extra supply: Fortescue

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 18 : 1-Nov-17

Rio Tinto CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques recently told staff via an internal communication that its Pilbara iron ore shipments could eventually top 400 million tonnes a year, compared with its 2017 target of 330 million tonnes. However, Fortescue Metals Group CEO Nev Power questions whether there is sufficient demand for iron ore at present to justify a large increase in supply, noting that shareholder returns will be adversely affected if resources projects are over-developed. Meanwhile, Power expects the price discount for Fortescue’s lower-grade iron ore to narrow over time.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, LIBERTY HOUSE GROUP, CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INCORPORATED, METALICITY LIMTED – ASX MCT

BHP to take hard look at asset sales

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 21 : 26-Oct-17

BHP Billiton may consider further asset sales under CEO Andrew Mackenzie and chairman Ken MacKenzie. BHP has previously flagged plans to divest its US shale assets, and other assets that could potentially be sold include its one-sixth stake in the North West Shelf LNG project, thermal coal mines, nickel mines in Western Australia and its potash project in Canada. The North West Shelf project was the biggest contributor to the earnings of BHP’s petroleum division in 2016.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

BHP guidance for iron ore unchanged

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Timothy Moore, James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 19-Oct-17

BHP Billiton has advised that it produced 64 million tonnes of iron ore in the September 2017 quarter, which is four per cent lower than the same period in 2016. However, BHP still expects iron ore production to be within the range of 275 and 280 million for 2017-18. Meanwhile, copper production rose by 14 per cent to 404,000 tonnes during the quarter, while petroleum production was down eight per cent to 50 million barrels of oil equivalent.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION

Oil Search production levels hit a new record

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 : 18-Oct-17

Australian-listed Oil Search has reported production of 7.91 million barrels of oil equivalent for the September quarter, which is nine per cent higher than previously. The company has advised that the record quarterly production means full-year output should be at the higher end of its forecast of between 29 mboe and 30.5 mboe. Oil Search benefited from a strong contribution from the Papua New Guinea LNG project, for which expansion plans are being developed.

CORPORATES
OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, TOTAL SA, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

Rio sticks with record iron ore target

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 18-Oct-17

Rio Tinto scaled back its forecast for Pilbara iron ore shipments in 2017 to 330 million tonnes earlier in the year. The resources group is confident of meeting this guidance, after shipments rose by 11 per cent to 85.8 million tonnes in the September quarter. However, Rio Tinto’s export volumes will have to rise to a record 89.8 tonnes in the December quarter to achieve its revised guidance. Meanwhile, Rio Tinto has reduced its forecast for copper production in 2017 for a second time. It now expects global output to be within the range of 460,000 to 480,000 tonnes.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG