BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Upbeat Evolution flags higher 2018 cash flow

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 17-Oct-17

Evolution Mining produced 220,971 ounces of gold in the September 2017 quarter, which is 1.3 per cent higher than in the three months to June. The gold miner has reported an all-in sustaining cost of $US620 ($A786) per ounce for the latest quarter. Evolution’s operating cash flow rose to a record $707m in 2016-17, and finance director Lawrie Conway believes that this can increase by 15-20 per cent in 2017-18. This is despite the recent sale of the Edna May mine to Ramelius Resources.

CORPORATES
EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX RMS, GLENCORE PLC, BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

Gold exploration spending needs to double, report finds

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 16-Oct-17

Australia’s gold production totalled 9.7 million ounces in 2016, but a report from Minex Consulting warns that a big rise in exploration expenditure is needed to avert a sharp downturn in production within five years. The Office of the Chief Economist is also bearish about the outlook for the nation’s gold sector, forecasting that the value of gold exports will fall to $A17.1bn in 2017-18 and $A16.9bn in 2018-19. This compares with around $A18bn in 2016-17.

CORPORATES
MINEX CONSULTING PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ECONOMIST, LIBERAL PARTY OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA

LNG surge powers $211b export record

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 5 : 6-Oct-17

Australia’s chief economist Mark Cully expects the nation’s mining and energy exports to top $A211bn in 2017-18. Resources exports totalled $A204m in 2016-17. Cully is particularly upbeat about the outlook for the LNG sector, with expectations that annual export volumes will rise from 36.9 million tonnes in 2016 to 73.8 million by 2019. Iron ore export volumes are also forecast to rise over the next few years, although the value of such exports is expected to fall.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Questions over QBE’s plan for $1b buyback

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Alice Uribe
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 4-Oct-17

QBE Insurance Group has increased its provision for natural disaster claims in 2017 to $US1.75bn ($A2.24bn), in the wake of a series of such events in Australia and abroad. The insurer has advised that this will reduce its pre-tax earnings by about $US600m. David Ellis of Morningstar and David Spotswood of Shaw & Partners suggest that QBE may have to put its share buyback on hold. QBE recently advised that it has repurchased about 5.5 per cent of its stock to date.

CORPORATES
QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, FLORIDA CITIZENS PROPERTY INSURANCE CORPORATION, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, S&P GLOBAL RATINGS

Fees underpin Macquarie profit

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 21 : 12-Sep-17

Macquarie Group has advised that its profit for the first half of 2017-18 will be higher than previously due to an increase in performance fees. However, the investment bank has told an investor roadshow that it expects full-year profit to be similar to its $A2.22bn result for 2016-17. Macquarie’s earnings profile has benefited from the group’s increased focus on annuity-style operations, while the group has also highlighted its risk management practices.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, HILL SAMUEL BANK

Citi tips ‘attractive’ return on stocks

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 6-Sep-17

Data from Citigroup shows that the earnings of Australian-listed companies increased by 17.8 per cent in 2016-17, although growth was just 4.3 per cent when resources stocks are excluded. Earnings are forecast to rise by 3.4 per cent overall in 2017-18, although Tony Brennan of Citigroup notes that growth could be around 10 per cent when dividends are taken into account. Meanwhile, UBS expects earnings growth of 3.5 per cent overall. Citigroup also forecasts that the S&P/ASX 200 could potentially rise by 12 per cent in 2017-18.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, PRIMARY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX PRY, AMP LIMITED – ASX AMP, COMPUTERSHARE LIMITED – ASX CPU, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX

BlueScope dives as chief departs

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 20 : 22-Aug-17

BlueScope Steel has reported a sharp rise in net profit for 2016-17, to $A715.9m. However, the steel-maker has advised that EBIT for the first half of 2017-18 will fall from $A527m previously to $A422m, due to factors such as the strong Australian dollar and the impact of rising scrap metal prices in the US on its North Star subsidiary. BlueScope has also revealed that Mark Vassella will succeed CEO Paul O’Malley at the start of 2018, and that the company is the subject of a cartel investigation. BlueScope shares fell $A3.08 to $A11.03 on 21 August.

CORPORATES
BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, NORTH STAR STEEL, CARGILL INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Near enough is good enough in season so far

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 22-Aug-17

Analysts’ consensus earnings-per-share estimates for 2017-18 have been downgraded by 0.3 per cent so far in the August 2017 reporting season. Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse notes that this compares with EPS upgrades of 1.6 per cent in the February reporting season. Meanwhile, just 19 per cent of Australian-listed companies have exceeded consensus earnings estimates so far in the current reporting season, compared with an average of 40 per cent over the last two decades. Likewise, 38 per cent of companies have failed to meet consensus estimates to date, while the historical average is just 28 per cent.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, G8 EDUCATION LIMITED – ASX GEM, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, APN OUTDOOR GROUP LIMITED – ASX APO, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, DOMAIN.COM.AU, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Reporting season needs a real kick-along

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 21-Aug-17

To date some 76 companies in the S&P/ASX 200 companies have released their financial results so far in the August reporting season. Just 20 per cent of stocks to have issued guidance for 2017-18 have upgraded their earnings-per-share forecast. Blue-chip stocks such as Qantas and BHP Billiton will need to deliver solid earnings results in the next two weeks in order to bolster investor sentiment and boost the benchmark index. A major issue during the current reporting season has been the dearth of companies to have exceeded expectations.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, MACQUARIE WEALTH MANAGEMENT, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC – ASX JHG, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, IOOF HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX IFL, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC – ASX JHX, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, KOGAN.COM LIMITED – ASX KGN, THE A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED – ASX A2M

BHP to deliver six-fold jump in earnings

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 21-Aug-17

The general consensus of analysts is for BHP Billiton’s underlying earnings for 2016-17 to be within the range of $US7bn to $US7.3bn, compared with $US1.2bn in 2015-16. Most analysts expect BHP’s final dividend to be around $US0.43 per share, although Credit Suisse expects a payout of $US0.36. BHP’s final dividend in 2015-16 was just $US0.14 per share. Meanwhile, investors will be hoping for some guidance on BHP’s plans for its US shale assets and the Jansen potash project.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, TRIBECA GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES FUND, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG