BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Myer profit warning a present for Lew

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 20 : 15-Dec-17

Solomon Lew might be more likely to get support for his push for an extraordinary general meeting of Myer shareholders after the department store chain issued another profit warning on 14 December. Lew is Myer’s largest shareholder through Premier Investments, and he has been attacking the Myer board for some months over what he claims is its flawed business strategy. Myer’s shares fell to a record low after it revealed that sales for the last two weeks were down five per cent.

CORPORATES
MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED – ASX PMV, OROTONGROUP LIMITED – ASX ORL, VERTIUM ASSET MANAGEMENT, LIVE CLOTHING, LOVER

Department stores set for decade-long tumble

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Original article by Luke Misthos
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 12-Dec-17

The value of Australia’s department store sector will decline to $A16.7 billion (excluding the value of GST) in 2027, according to Morningstar. The sector is currently valued at $A17.5 billion. Morningstar predicts that sales earned by "bricks and mortar" department stores will decline by two per cent annually between now and 2027, while the number of physical stores will fall by 26 per cent. Morningstar contends that Kmart is best-equipped to meet the challenge posed by Amazon.

CORPORATES
MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, KMART AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, TARGET AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DAVID JONES LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS GROUP LIMITED – ASX WOW, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES

News Corp tipped to cut print circulations 30pc

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Original article by Aaron Patrick
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 12 : 12-Dec-17

There is speculation that News Corp Australia will reduce the print circulation of some newspapers by 25-30 per cent following its decision to cease reporting print sales data. Industry sources have suggested that News Corp may also have decided to stop distributing bulk copies of its newspapers, which Fairfax Media has already done. Fairfax Media also reduced the print circulation of some titles in 2014.

CORPORATES
NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, AUDIT BUREAU OF CIRCULATIONS

Ad spend to slow, but still grow, next year

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 11-Dec-17

IPG Mediabrands has forecast that advertising revenue in Australia will rise by 2.9 per cent in 2018, following 3.2 per cent growth in 2017. Spending on advertising is expected to top $A16bn in 2018, with the digital advertising sector forecast to be worth $A9bn. Expenditure on linear TV advertising is expected to fall by four per cent, while digital video advertising is tipped to grow by 21.7 per cent as traditional TV networks continue to expand their streaming video presence. Print advertising revenue is forecast to fall by more than 20 per cent.

CORPORATES
IPG MEDIABRANDS, MAGNA

Amazon just warming up, warn analysts

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 7-Dec-17

Melanie Sanders of Bain & Company has forecast that e-commerce giant Amazon will boast Australian sales of between $A8bn and $A10bn within 5-10 years, making it the nation’s sixth-biggest retailer. Consumers have criticised the limited product range offered by Amazon when it officially launched in Australia, but Sanders argues that the company probably opted for a low-key launch in order to test its systems. Retail industry analysts have warned Australian retailers against becoming complacent based on Amazon’s local launch on 5 December, while Amazon itself says its sales for the day were higher than for any previous country launch.

CORPORATES
AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, BAIN AND COMPANY, UGAM, WORLD FIRST AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, KMART AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BUNNINGS GROUP LIMITED, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, IGA, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN

BHP expects to cut Australian mine costs by further 10pc, talks up copper prices

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: Online : 29-Nov-17

BHP Billiton has told participants at its investors’ briefing on 28 November that it aims to achieve $US2 billion in productivity gains over the next 24 months, with its Australian mines expected to account for 80 per cent of that target. Its iron ore division, which achieved unit costs of $US14.60 per tonne in the year to 30 June 2017, is expected to reduce that figure to under $US13 in the medium term. Meanwhile, BHP told investors that copper prices in 2017 had been better than forecast, and that it expects prices to again be strong in 2018.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD INCORPORATED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Nine won’t rush into mergers, Costello declares

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Original article by Darren Davidson
The Australian – Page: 18 : 14-Nov-17

Nine Entertainment Company has advised that its EBITDA for 2017-18 will be at the higher end of its newly revised range of $A204m to $A230m. It had previously flagged full-year EBITDA of between $A186m and $A207m. Meanwhile, chairman Peter Costello says the Federal Government’s cross-media ownership reforms may not lead to significant consolidation in the sector, as technology has reduced the impact of the reforms. He adds that the Nine Network’s strong ratings performance shows that the company can prosper on its own.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, CBS CORPORATION, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, CRICKET AUSTRALIA

Rinehart warns of collapse in investment

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Original article by Brad Thompson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 14-Nov-17

Mining magnate Gina Rinehart has expressed concern that the compliance burden and excessive bureaucracy pose a major threat to future investment in Australia’s mining industry and other sectors of the economy. She has called for an overhaul of the nation’s three levels of government, arguing that there is too much duplication of red tape at federal, state and local council level. Rinehart has also urged greater support for National Mining and Related Industries Day, noting that it does not receive the same amount of recognition as National Agriculture Day.

CORPORATES
HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, NATIONAL FARMERS’ FEDERATION LIMITED, FAIRFAX AGRICULTURAL MEDIA

Fortescue urged to reduce exports, raise iron grades

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 4-Nov-17

Andrew Hines has urged Fortescue Metals to lift its iron ore grades, even if that means reducing the level of its exports. Hines, an analyst with Evans & Partners, says doing this would help the level of pricing discounts applied to its product. He notes its recent strategy of lowering the grade of its product has reduced its production costs, but at the expense of the price it gets for its shipments. Hines says a "perfect storm of factors", including higher energy and transport costs, could see Fortescue posting a loss in fiscal 2019, compared to the $US2.1 billion ($A2.7 billion) net profit it announced in August.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Iron ore market doesn’t warrant extra supply: Fortescue

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 18 : 1-Nov-17

Rio Tinto CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques recently told staff via an internal communication that its Pilbara iron ore shipments could eventually top 400 million tonnes a year, compared with its 2017 target of 330 million tonnes. However, Fortescue Metals Group CEO Nev Power questions whether there is sufficient demand for iron ore at present to justify a large increase in supply, noting that shareholder returns will be adversely affected if resources projects are over-developed. Meanwhile, Power expects the price discount for Fortescue’s lower-grade iron ore to narrow over time.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ARRIUM LIMITED – ASX ARI, LIBERTY HOUSE GROUP, CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INCORPORATED, METALICITY LIMTED – ASX MCT