BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Fairfax dives as suitors vanish

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Original article by Andrew White
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 4-Jul-17

Fairfax Media has advised that its 2016-17 EBITDA will be within the range of $A262m to $A266m, compared with $A283.3m previously. Group revenue will be six per cent lower, although the Domain property listings business has posted revenue growth of 10 per cent. Fairfax shares fell sharply on 3 July after the media group ended talks with private equity suitors TPG Capital and Hellman & Friedman. Fairfax will now proceed with the demerger of Domain before the end of 2017, although it will retain a majority stake.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, DOMAIN.COM.AU, TPG CAPITAL LP, HELLMAN AND FRIEDMAN, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, MACQUARIE MEDIA LIMITED – ASX MRN, ONTARIO TEACHERS’ PENSION PLAN, CCZ STATTON EQUITIES PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS

‘Oversold’ retail trusts set to rebound

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 3-Jul-17

Vicinity Centres, Scentre Group and Westfield Corporation all returned negative returns of at least 10 per cent in the year to 30 June 2017. This made them the worst performing stocks in the S&P/ASX 200-A REIT index, but fund managers believe that this now makes them good value, and expect them to perform much better in 2017-18. Fund managers contend that the three stocks – Australia’s biggest shopping centre owners – were oversold because of the perception that their tenants will be damaged by the arrival of Amazon in Australia.

CORPORATES
VICINITY CENTRES – ASX VCX, SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, SG HISCOCK AND COMPANY LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, WHOLE FOODS MARKET INCORPORATED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Super funds to return bumper 10.5pc

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Original article by Sally Patten
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 30-Jun-17

Chant West expects Australian superannuation funds to achieve an average return of 10.5 per cent for the 2016-17 financial year. Chant West director Warren Chant notes that major super funds have performed well for eight years, despite sustained economic and political uncertainty. Meanwhile, returns from industry super funds are forecast to exceed those of retail funds by about 0.7 per cent in 2016-17.

CORPORATES
CHANT WEST FINANCIAL SERVICES PTY LTD, HOST-PLUS, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Fortescue confident of even more cost cutting

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 29-Jun-17

Iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group aims to achieve a "C1" unit cost of production of between $US12 and $US13 per tonne in 2016-17, compared with $U50/tonne several years ago. Greg Lilleyman, Fortescue’s director of operations, is confident that the company can further reduce its costs. While he acknowledges that it will be hard to match its recent cost performance in coming years, he says there are still opportunities for more cost savings. Lilleyman also expects the price discount of lower-grade iron compared with the benchmark price to narrow.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Views diverge on Macquarie Group earnings

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 26-Jun-17

Karl Siegling of Cadence Asset Management does not think the federal and South Australian bank levies will have too great an impact on Macquarie Group’s earnings. On the issue of taxes, Morgan Stanley predicts that Macquarie will benefit from President Donald Trump’s plans to reduce US corporate taxes, while Bloomberg notes that analysts expect Macquarie to record a 2018 profit of $A2.3 billion.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CADENCE ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, QUADRANT ENERGY PTY LTD, BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INCORPORATED, BLOOMBERG AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, AMB HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NUIX PTY LTD, ENDEAVOUR ENERGY LIMITED

Yancoal tipped to match Rio bid by Glencore

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 26-Jun-17

Peter O’Connor of Shaw & Partners says Rio Tinto’s sale of its Hunter Valley coal assets will be a good deal for shareholders, as the bidding war between Glencore and Yancoal continues. Glencore has sought to trump Yancoal by increasing its own offer, which is now $US255m higher than Yancoal’s offer of $US2.45bn. Rio Tinto recently named Yancoal as preferred bidder, and its board is likely to respond to Glencore’s revised offer on 26 June. Meanwhile, analysts expect Rio Tinto to use the proceeds of the sale to increase its 2017 dividend.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, GLENCORE PLC, COAL AND ALLIED INDUSTRIES LIMITED, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, BLOOMBERG LP, YANKUANG CORPORATION GROUP LIMITED, CHINA. MINISTRY OF COMMERCE, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

AGL makes a ‘stack of profit’ from coal

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Original article by Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 23-Jun-17

Whitehaven Coal CEO Paul Flynn says Professor Alan Finkel’s predictions concerning the reduced cost of generating electricity from renewable energy sources are ambitious. Flynn, also used a speech at a Brisbane Mining Club function to lambast firms such as AGL Energy for promoting their commitment to renewable energy in their advertising, while noting that they will still be earning profits from electricity generated from coal-fired power stations for some years to come.

CORPORATES
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, BRISBANE MINING CLUB PTY LTD, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PRESS CLUB (AUSTRALIA), AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Domino’s no longer flavour of the month

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 19 & 31 : 23-Jun-17

Craig Woolford of Citigroup says Domino’s will need to take better care of its franchisees if it is continue to maintain store growth. He notes that the typical Australia/New Zealand Domino’s store has seen its income grow by just 1.2 per cent over the last 12 years, compared with 9.5 per cent for the company as a whole. Woolford rates the stock a "sell". Domino’s shares fell by four per cent on 22 June, bringing to its decline since the start of 2017 to almost 20 per cent.

CORPORATES
DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ALPHINITY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, ARMYTAGE PRIVATE LIMITED

Supplies are plentiful but shortage of ‘cheap gas’: UBS

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 22-Jun-17

Nik Burns of UBS says the Federal Government’s Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism is unlikely to be triggered in 2018. He does not expect a gas shortage on the east coast, as the Australia Pacific LNG and Queensland Curtis LNG projects have sufficient surplus gas to supply the domestic market. However, Burns adds that these projects will not increase domestic supply unless local gas users are prepared to pay a similar price to the spot price.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA PACIFIC LNG LIMITED, QUEENSLAND CURTIS LNG PTY LTD, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, GLADSTONE LNG PTY LTD, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED

Rio Tinto coal deal raises hopes of bigger payouts

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 30 : 22-Jun-17

Rio Tinto shareholders will vote on Yancoal’s $US2.45bn ($A3.2bn) offer for its Hunter Valley thermal coal assets on 27 June. Rio Tinto CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques says Yancoal was chosen as preferred bidder due to factors such as its decision to drop a deferred payment plan and the fact that it has already gained some regulatory approvals. Peter O’Connor of Shaw & Partners expects Rio Tinto to use some of the proceeds of the sale to increase its dividend payout, while he adds that another share buyback is also possible.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, GLENCORE PLC, COAL AND ALLIED INDUSTRIES LIMITED, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, GREAT BRITAIN. SERIOUS FRAUD OFFICE, BLOOMBERG LP, BARCLAYS BANK PLC