BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Domino’s no longer flavour of the month

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 19 & 31 : 23-Jun-17

Craig Woolford of Citigroup says Domino’s will need to take better care of its franchisees if it is continue to maintain store growth. He notes that the typical Australia/New Zealand Domino’s store has seen its income grow by just 1.2 per cent over the last 12 years, compared with 9.5 per cent for the company as a whole. Woolford rates the stock a "sell". Domino’s shares fell by four per cent on 22 June, bringing to its decline since the start of 2017 to almost 20 per cent.

CORPORATES
DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ALPHINITY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED – ASX ALL, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, ARMYTAGE PRIVATE LIMITED

AGL makes a ‘stack of profit’ from coal

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Original article by Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 : 23-Jun-17

Whitehaven Coal CEO Paul Flynn says Professor Alan Finkel’s predictions concerning the reduced cost of generating electricity from renewable energy sources are ambitious. Flynn, also used a speech at a Brisbane Mining Club function to lambast firms such as AGL Energy for promoting their commitment to renewable energy in their advertising, while noting that they will still be earning profits from electricity generated from coal-fired power stations for some years to come.

CORPORATES
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC, BRISBANE MINING CLUB PTY LTD, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, MINERALS COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PRESS CLUB (AUSTRALIA), AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET

Supplies are plentiful but shortage of ‘cheap gas’: UBS

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 22-Jun-17

Nik Burns of UBS says the Federal Government’s Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism is unlikely to be triggered in 2018. He does not expect a gas shortage on the east coast, as the Australia Pacific LNG and Queensland Curtis LNG projects have sufficient surplus gas to supply the domestic market. However, Burns adds that these projects will not increase domestic supply unless local gas users are prepared to pay a similar price to the spot price.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA PACIFIC LNG LIMITED, QUEENSLAND CURTIS LNG PTY LTD, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC, GLADSTONE LNG PTY LTD, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED

Rio Tinto coal deal raises hopes of bigger payouts

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 30 : 22-Jun-17

Rio Tinto shareholders will vote on Yancoal’s $US2.45bn ($A3.2bn) offer for its Hunter Valley thermal coal assets on 27 June. Rio Tinto CEO Jean-Sebastien Jacques says Yancoal was chosen as preferred bidder due to factors such as its decision to drop a deferred payment plan and the fact that it has already gained some regulatory approvals. Peter O’Connor of Shaw & Partners expects Rio Tinto to use some of the proceeds of the sale to increase its dividend payout, while he adds that another share buyback is also possible.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, GLENCORE PLC, COAL AND ALLIED INDUSTRIES LIMITED, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, GREAT BRITAIN. SERIOUS FRAUD OFFICE, BLOOMBERG LP, BARCLAYS BANK PLC

Santos export fears overdone, says Citigroup

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 21-Jun-17

Shares in Santos closed two per cent lower at $A2.98 on 20 June 2017, after the Federal Government committed to implementing the Australian Domestic Gas Security Mechanism. However, Citigroup believes that LNG export controls may have less near-term impact on Santos and its Gladstone LNG venture than has been forecast. Citigroup also suggests that the ADGSM may also prompt Santos and its partners in the project to develop new gas fields instead of sourcing gas from third parties.

CORPORATES
SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, GLADSTONE LNG PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED, MACQUARIE RESEARCH EQUITIES, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

PE, capital flows bolster local M&A prospects

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 17 : 20-Jun-17

Data from Dealogic shows that $US44.1bn ($A57.9bn) worth of Australian mergers and acquisitions have been announced so far in 2017. This is 52 per cent higher than at the same time in 2016, and market watchers anticipate that M&A activity will remain strong in the second half of the year. Kate Towey of law firm Allens says overseas investors regard the Australian market as stable and attractive, while Alex Cartel of Deutsche Bank expects shareholder activism to have an increasing influence on the local market.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, ALLENS, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, TATTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX TTS, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, ENDEAVOUR ENERGY LIMITED, ALINTA ENERGY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, KKR AND COMPANY LP, VOCUS GROUP LIMITED – ASX VOC, PLATINUM EQUITY HOLDINGS, STAPLES AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, OFFICEMAX INCORPORATED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, JOHNSON AND JOHNSON, ACTELION, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, WHOLE FOODS MARKET INCORPORATED, MINTER ELLISON, AUSTRALIA. FOREIGN INVESTMENT REVIEW BOARD

Jungle king tears into groceries

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Original article by John McDuling
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 19-Jun-17

Robert Luciano of VGI Partners says Australian retailers should be concerned by Amazon’s purchase of grocery retailer Whole Foods. Amazon announced on 16 June 2017 that it will acquire the US grocery retailer for $US13.7 billion ($A18 billion), and that Whole Foods will continue to trade under its current name. Luciano suggests that the purchase represents a major evolvement in Amazon’s business model. Amazon is due to commence operating in Australia in 2018, and it is expected to have a major impact on the earnings of local retailers.

CORPORATES
VGI PARTNERS PTY LTD, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, WHOLE FOODS MARKET INCORPORATED, SOUQ, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AMAZON WEB SERVICES LLC, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN

IPO tale: more floats, less cash

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Original article by Scott Murdoch
The Australian – Page: 20 : 19-Jun-17

A total of 137 companies listed on the Australian sharemarket during the first five months of 2017, compared with 113 for the same period in 2016. However, the total value of initial capital raised has fallen from $A22.6bn to just $A13.67bn, and the total value of secondary capital raised has fallen from $A43.5bn to $A35.5bn. Simon Poidevin of Bell Potter anticipates an upturn in secondary capital raisings in the new financial year as companies seek growth via acquisitions.

CORPORATES
BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, BINGO INDUSTRIES LIMITED – ASX BIN, OFFICEWORKS SUPERSTORES PTY LTD, ZIP INDUSTRIES AUSTRALIA, CRAVEABLE BRANDS LIMITED, RED ROOSTER FOODS, OPORTO PTY LTD, KELLY PARTNERS GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX KPG, NUTRANO PRODUCE GROUP, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX, STANDARD AND POOR’S 500 INDEX

Commercial yields to tighten further: AMP

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 16-Jun-17

Opinion is divided as to whether Australia’s commercial real estate sector is heading for a major downturn. Shane Quinn of Quintessential Equity says he can foresee "carnage" if banks decide to cut back on lending, but Adam Geha, the CEO of fund manager EG, says he cannot foresee a correction in the immediate future. Geha’s comments are echoed by AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver, who says a commercial property market crash looks to be unlikely.

CORPORATES
QUINTESSENTIAL EQUITY PTY LTD, EG CAPITAL PTY LTD, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

ASX ripe for activist investors: Credit Suisse

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 27 : 15-Jun-17

Hasan Tevfik of Credit Suisse expects more activist investors to target Australian-listed stocks in the wake of Elliott Management’s push for a restructuring at BHP Billiton. He says activist investment is gaining momentum in Australia and it is inevitable that local superannuation funds will adopt this strategy given the returns achieved by activist hedge funds in North America. Caltex, AMP, News Corporation and Lendlease are among the companies that are seen as potential targets for activist investors.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, CALTEX AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX CTX, AMP LIFE LIMITED, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, CSR LIMITED – ASX CSR, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, TRIBECA INVESTMENT PARTNERS PTY LTD, ESCALA PARTNERS LIMITED, ARDENT LEISURE GROUP – ASX AAD, BRICKWORKS LIMITED – ASX BKW, WASHINGTON H SOUL PATTINSON AND COMPANY LIMITED – ASX SOL, PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, FEDERAL COURT OF AUSTRALIA, LIM ADVISORS LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL CHINA GROWTH FUND