BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

AusSuper optimistic on equity outlook

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Original article by Sally Patten
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 6-Jul-17

AustralianSuper has posted a return of 12.4 per cent for 2016-17, due to a strong performance by asset classes such as infrastructure, Australian shares and global shares. Chief investment officer Mark Delaney is upbeat about the outlook for sharemarkets in 2017-18, although he cautions that investors should expect lower returns than in 2016-17. He adds that share prices are unlikely to be significantly affected by the prospect of interest rate increases in countries such as the US.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIANSUPER PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CHANT WEST FINANCIAL SERVICES PTY LTD

BHP could spin off petroleum: analyst

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 6-Jul-17

Bernstein analyst Paul Gait says BHP Billiton could potentially divest its petroleum and potash assets under incoming chairman Ken MacKenzie. Several institutional investors support a proposal by activist hedge fund Elliott Management for BHP to spin off its US petroleum division. Gait suggests that MacKenzie may be more objective about BHP’s future strategy given his lack of experience in the mining sector.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, BERNSTEIN INVESTMENT RESEARCH AND MANAGEMENT, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, TRIBECA GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES FUND, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Fortescue tipped to hit export guidance

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 6-Jul-17

Fortescue Metals Group had forecast that it would export about 170 million tonnes of iron ore in 2016-17. Analysts expect its export volumes to be at the higher of its guidance, although its exports for the June quarter will need to be around 44 million tonnes. BHP Billiton’s iron ore shipments for the year are also expected to be at the higher end of its guidance. Meanwhile, Peter O’Connor of Shaw & Partners expects the iron ore price to retreat to around $US50 per tonne in the second half of 2017.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, ROY HILL HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Virgin tips positive cash flow as Velocity slows

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Original article by Michael Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 4-Jul-17

Virgin Australia released an update on its trading performance on 3 July 2017, two days prior to the launch of its new service to Hong Kong. Virgin Australia, which reported a net loss of $A69 million for the third quarter in May 2017, advised on 3 July that it will be "cash flow positive" for the full financial year. However, its forecast for EBIT growth of between two and three per cent for its Velocity frequent flyer program was down on previous forecasts.

CORPORATES
VIRGIN AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX VAH, VELOCITY FREQUENT FLYER PTY LTD, QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED – ASX QAN

Fairfax dives as suitors vanish

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Original article by Andrew White
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 4-Jul-17

Fairfax Media has advised that its 2016-17 EBITDA will be within the range of $A262m to $A266m, compared with $A283.3m previously. Group revenue will be six per cent lower, although the Domain property listings business has posted revenue growth of 10 per cent. Fairfax shares fell sharply on 3 July after the media group ended talks with private equity suitors TPG Capital and Hellman & Friedman. Fairfax will now proceed with the demerger of Domain before the end of 2017, although it will retain a majority stake.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, DOMAIN.COM.AU, TPG CAPITAL LP, HELLMAN AND FRIEDMAN, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, MACQUARIE MEDIA LIMITED – ASX MRN, ONTARIO TEACHERS’ PENSION PLAN, CCZ STATTON EQUITIES PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS

‘Oversold’ retail trusts set to rebound

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 3-Jul-17

Vicinity Centres, Scentre Group and Westfield Corporation all returned negative returns of at least 10 per cent in the year to 30 June 2017. This made them the worst performing stocks in the S&P/ASX 200-A REIT index, but fund managers believe that this now makes them good value, and expect them to perform much better in 2017-18. Fund managers contend that the three stocks – Australia’s biggest shopping centre owners – were oversold because of the perception that their tenants will be damaged by the arrival of Amazon in Australia.

CORPORATES
VICINITY CENTRES – ASX VCX, SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, SG HISCOCK AND COMPANY LIMITED, AMP CAPITAL INVESTORS LIMITED, WHOLE FOODS MARKET INCORPORATED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Super funds to return bumper 10.5pc

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Original article by Sally Patten
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 30-Jun-17

Chant West expects Australian superannuation funds to achieve an average return of 10.5 per cent for the 2016-17 financial year. Chant West director Warren Chant notes that major super funds have performed well for eight years, despite sustained economic and political uncertainty. Meanwhile, returns from industry super funds are forecast to exceed those of retail funds by about 0.7 per cent in 2016-17.

CORPORATES
CHANT WEST FINANCIAL SERVICES PTY LTD, HOST-PLUS, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX

Fortescue confident of even more cost cutting

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 29-Jun-17

Iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group aims to achieve a "C1" unit cost of production of between $US12 and $US13 per tonne in 2016-17, compared with $U50/tonne several years ago. Greg Lilleyman, Fortescue’s director of operations, is confident that the company can further reduce its costs. While he acknowledges that it will be hard to match its recent cost performance in coming years, he says there are still opportunities for more cost savings. Lilleyman also expects the price discount of lower-grade iron compared with the benchmark price to narrow.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Views diverge on Macquarie Group earnings

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 26-Jun-17

Karl Siegling of Cadence Asset Management does not think the federal and South Australian bank levies will have too great an impact on Macquarie Group’s earnings. On the issue of taxes, Morgan Stanley predicts that Macquarie will benefit from President Donald Trump’s plans to reduce US corporate taxes, while Bloomberg notes that analysts expect Macquarie to record a 2018 profit of $A2.3 billion.

CORPORATES
MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CADENCE ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UNITED STATES. EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT, QUADRANT ENERGY PTY LTD, BROOKFIELD ASSET MANAGEMENT INCORPORATED, BLOOMBERG AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, AMB HOLDINGS PTY LTD, NUIX PTY LTD, ENDEAVOUR ENERGY LIMITED

Yancoal tipped to match Rio bid by Glencore

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 26-Jun-17

Peter O’Connor of Shaw & Partners says Rio Tinto’s sale of its Hunter Valley coal assets will be a good deal for shareholders, as the bidding war between Glencore and Yancoal continues. Glencore has sought to trump Yancoal by increasing its own offer, which is now $US255m higher than Yancoal’s offer of $US2.45bn. Rio Tinto recently named Yancoal as preferred bidder, and its board is likely to respond to Glencore’s revised offer on 26 June. Meanwhile, analysts expect Rio Tinto to use the proceeds of the sale to increase its 2017 dividend.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, GLENCORE PLC, COAL AND ALLIED INDUSTRIES LIMITED, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, ROYAL BANK OF CANADA, BLOOMBERG LP, YANKUANG CORPORATION GROUP LIMITED, CHINA. MINISTRY OF COMMERCE, CITIGROUP PTY LTD