BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Credit Suisse chief’s cautionary IPO tale

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 5-Jun-17

Some high-profile IPOs in Australia have been withdrawn in 2017, and Credit Suisse John Knox says the market needs some successful IPOs in order to boost float activity. He adds that private equity firms are unlikely to be behind the majority of IPOs in the near-term. Knox is upbeat about the outlook for mergers and acquisitions activity during the remainder of 2017, while he has welcomed a move by the Foreign Investment Review Board to provide greater clarity regarding offshore bidders.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. FOREIGN INVESTMENT REVIEW BOARD, OFFICEWORKS SUPERSTORES PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, ZIP INDUSTRIES AUSTRALIA, ALINTA ENERGY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, CHOW TAI FOOK ENTERPRISES LIMITED, ICON GROUP, QIC LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS PRIVATE EQUITY, PAGODA INVESTMENTS, TPG CAPITAL LP, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED

Wesfarmers faces hit from Amazon

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 2-Jun-17

Morgan Stanley forecasts that Amazon’s entry to the Australian market could slash Wesfarmers’ earnings by more than $A400m a year by 2026. The firm expects the Kmart and Target discount department stores to be more vulnerable than specialist retailers such as JB Hi-Fi. Morgan Stanley has reduced its valuation for Kmart and Bunnings, while it now has a zero valuation on Target. It share price target for Wesfarmers has been downgraded from $A41 to $A36.

CORPORATES
WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, KMART AUSTRALIA LIMITED, TARGET AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BUNNINGS GROUP LIMITED, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WOOLWORTHS SUPERMARKETS

REITs at risk in housing slowdown

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Original article by Elizabeth Redman
The Australian – Page: 25 : 1-Jun-17

Data from CoreLogic shows that residential property values across five Australian capital cities fell by 1.1 per cent in May 2017. Analysts and fund managers warn that listed real estate investment trusts could be vulnerable to a slowdown in the housing market. Stuart Cartledge of Phoenix Portfolios notes that developers that have pre-sold apartments will not be hit by any downturn, although future sales volumes may be affected.

CORPORATES
CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, PHOENIX PORTFOLIOS PTY LTD, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, LEND LEASE GROUP LIMITED – ASX LLC, CEDAR WOODS PROPERTIES LIMITED – ASX CWP, AVJENNINGS LIMITED – ASX AVJ, VILLA WORLD LIMITED – ASX VLW, RESOLUTION CAPITAL LIMITED, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FOLKESTONE MAXIM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED

Santos cuts intake of gas amid export curb threat

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 20 : 1-Jun-17

The Gladstone LNG project reduced its average daily gas intake to 723 terajoules in May 2017, to the lowest level in a year, while the intake was 20 per cent lower than in March. However, GLNG operator Santos has declined to comment on whether the Federal Government’s proposal to impose LNG export controls contributed to the reduced gas intake. Meanwhile, Nik Burns of UBS says GLNG is unlikely to meet the most bullish forecasts for total exports of six million tonnes in 2017.

CORPORATES
SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, GLADSTONE LNG PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, AUSTRALIA PACIFIC LNG LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED, TOTAL SA, PETRONAS GAS BHD, KOREA GAS CORPORATION

Retail decline threat to growth

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Original article by Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 17 & 28 : 1-Jun-17

National Australia Bank forecasts that retail sales rose by 0.3 per cent during April 2017, although chief economist Alan Oster says this figure could be optimistic. Official data will be released on 1 June, but some observers believe that retail sales fell in April. Oster says the retail sector is already in recession, and he does not anticipate an improvement in the near-term. A survey on the spending behaviour of NAB customers has highlighted the difficult trading conditions for the retail sector.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, SUPER RETAIL GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUL, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, OROTONGROUP LIMITED – ASX ORL, THE REJECT SHOP LIMITED – ASX TRS, ADAIRS LIMITED – ASX ADH, RCG CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX RCG, GODFREYS GROUP LIMITED – ASX GFY, AP EAGERS LIMITED – ASX APE, AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED – ASX AHG, DAVID JONES LIMITED, TOPSHOP, HERRINGBONE PTY LTD, RHODES AND BECKETT PTY LTD, DAVID LAWRENCE, PAYLESS SHOES PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

Expect more shareholder activism Down Under, warns Credit Suisse

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 23-May-17

Chris Young of Credit Suisse says it was inevitable that activist hedge funds would target Australian companies. He adds that the investment bank’s research suggests that BHP Billiton will not be the only Australian company to attract the interest of activists. Young says the best defence against activists is for a company to ensure that it has the support of key shareholders. He also notes that the relatively small size of the Australian market means activist funds may get less traction than in the much larger US market.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE AG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ELLIOTT ASSOCIATES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS COMPANY LIMITED, CANADIAN PACIFIC LIMITED, PERSHING SQUARE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP

Amazon effect puts IPOs under a cloud

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 16-May-17

The pending arrival of Amazon in Australia, along with reduced consumer spending, has made it less likely that three proposed IPOs in the retail sector will proceed. The IPOs in question are Retail Apparel Group, Quick Service Restaurant Holdings and Officeworks, with their combined value being put at $A2.4 billion. The lead managers behind Officeworks, which is a unit of Wesfarmers, have valued its IPO at between $A1.124 billion and $A1.5 billion, but the consensus of fund managers is that $A1.2 billion is as much as they would be willing to pay.

CORPORATES
AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, RETAIL APPAREL GROUP PTY LTD, QUICK SERVICE RESTAURANTS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, OFFICEWORKS SUPERSTORES PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, ARCHER CAPITAL PTY LTD, NAVIS CAPITAL PARTNERS LIMITED, YARRA CAPITAL GROUP PTY LTD, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BENNELONG AUSTRALIAN EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, BINGO INDUSTRIES LIMITED – ASX BIN, ZIP INDUSTRIES AUSTRALIA, TAROCASH PTY LTD, YD PTY LTD, JOHNNY BIGG, CONNOR

NAB downplays ‘inevitable’ AAA rating loss

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 23 : 5-May-17

National Australia Bank has conceded that the loss of Australia’s coveted triple-A credit rating would result in a corresponding downgrade of the bank’s credit rating. However, group treasurer Shaun Dooley says this would have no impact on the bank’s domestic funding costs, while the cost of international funding would rise by about 10 basis points. Dooley adds that international investors have indicated that they would continue to invest in Australian banks if the nation’s credit rating were downgraded.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, STANDARD AND POOR’S FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC, FITCH RATINGS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA

Digital classifieds under the pump

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Original article by Stewart Oldfield
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 3-May-17

Deutsche Bank estimates that based on forecast earnings for 2018, online classified advertising companies REA Group, Seek and Carsales are trading at a 70 per cent premium to the broader industrial sector. However, while rising share prices have seen their combined market capitalisation top $A17bn, the three dominant players in real estate, jobs and automotive classifieds face potential headwinds, including competition from new and established rivals and a growing threat from social media companies such as Facebook.

CORPORATES
REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, SEEK LEARNING PTY LTD, CARSALES.COM LIMITED – ASX CAR, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, DOMAIN.COM.AU, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, COX AUTOMOTIVE, AUTOTRADER, CARSGUIDE, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MAVERICK STRATEGIES, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MONSTER WORLDWIDE INCORPORATED, INDEED INCORPORATED, CAREERBUILDER, RANDSTAD HOLDINGS NV

ANZ shares pummelled by ‘lower for longer’ outlook

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Original article by Richard Gluyas
The Australian – Page: 19 & 23 : 3-May-17

The ANZ Bank has posted a 2016-17 interim cash profit of $A3.4bn, which is 23 per cent higher than previously. However, most analysts had expected a half-year profit of between $A3.5bn and $A3.8bn. CEO Shayne Elliott is confident that ANZ can outperform its rivals in terms of profit growth, but he says the low-growth environment means it no longer expects revenue growth to outpace that of rival banks. Shareholders will receive an interim dividend of $A0.80 per share.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MACQUARIE RESEARCH EQUITIES, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA