BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Banks set for earnings boost from rate hikes

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Original article by James Frost, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 16 : 1-May-17

The ANZ Bank, Westpac and National Australia Bank will release their 2016-17 interim results in early May 2017, while the Commonwealth Bank will release a trading update for the third quarter of its financial year. The "big four" banks are forecast to post a combined interim cash profit of around $A16bn. Earnings are expected to have been bolstered by the banks’ recent moves to lift their interest rates for investor and interest-only home loans. Citigroup forecasts that the rate rises will boost earnings per share by up to two per cent in 2017.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, AUSBIL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, STANDARD CHARTERED BANK MALAYSIA BERHAD, STANDARD CHARTERED BANK PLC, DNR CAPITAL PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG

Murdoch holds the key to re-shaping television

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Original article by Aaron Patrick, Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 36 & 37 : 1-May-17

Ten Network’s market capitalisation has slumped to just $A99.7m in the wake of a recent profit warning. The 7.7 per cent stake held by News Corporation’s co-chairman Lachlan Murdoch is now worth just $A7.7m, and there is speculation that News Corp ultimately wants to acquire the struggling TV network. Ten is seeking to renegotiate or terminate its content deals with CBS and 21st Century Fox, amid declining viewership of US TV shows in Australia. Ten also faces a deadline to repay or roll over a loan facility that has been guaranteed by Murdoch, James Packer and Bruce Gordon.

CORPORATES
TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, NOVA ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, CBS CORPORATION, 21ST CENTURY FOX INCORPORATED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, YOUTUBE INCORPORATED, INSTAGRAM LLC, DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS INCORPORATED, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, CCZ STATTON EQUITIES PTY LTD, ITV NETWORK LIMITED, McKINSEY AND COMPANY, PROSIEBENSAT.1 MEDIA AG

Newcrest hit by power prices, Cadia damage

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Original article by Peter Ker, Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 28-Apr-17

Newcrest Mining has warned that full-year gold production for 2016-17 is likely to be at the lower end of its guidance. Newcrest has also indicated that its Cadia gold mine in New South Wales is unlikely to return to full capacity for some time following an earthquake. Meanwhile, the company has advised of an increase of about 90 per cent in the base price it will pay for electricity at Cadia under a new supply agreement for 2017-18. Newcrest says it will seek a better supply deal.

CORPORATES
NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

Ten review to cut costs in ‘every dark corner’

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Original article by Mitchell Bingemann
The Australian – Page: 21 : 28-Apr-17

Ten Network has posted a 2016-17 interim loss of $A232.2m and advised that it expects to book a full-year underlying EBITDA loss of between $A25m and $A30m. CEO Paul Anderson has revealed plans for an 18-month "transformation program" that will seek to increase revenue and aggressively reduce costs. Ten’s directors have conceded that there is significant doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern, with a $A200m debt facility due to expire at the end of 2017.

CORPORATES
TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Japan Post takes axe to Toll jobs

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Original article by Damon Kitney
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 27-Apr-17

Toll Holdings has shed about 300 jobs at its head office so far in 2017, and the transport and logistics group has revealed plans to axe an additional 1,700 positions over the next year. Toll’s Australian division, which employs about 25,000 people, is expected to bear the brunt of the job cuts. Toll will implement a restructuring program after parent company Japan Post flagged a $US3.6bn ($A4.8bn) writedown of the business and advised that 2017 EBIT is likely to be well below expectations. Japan Post paid $A6.5bn for Toll in 2015.

CORPORATES
TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED, JAPAN POST COMPANY LIMITED, ASCIANO LIMITED, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, LINFOX PTY LTD, KIRIN HOLDINGS COMPANY LIMITED, LION-DAIRY AND DRINKS PTY LTD

BHP puts US shale back on block

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 17 & 26 : 27-Apr-17

BHP Billiton has reduced its 2017 forecast for copper production to between 1.33 million and 1.36 million tonnes due to the impact of industrial action at the Escondida mine in Chile. Metallurgical coal output is also expected to be lower due to Cyclone Debbie in Queensland, while iron ore production guidance has been reduced to between 268 million and 272 million tonnes following inclement weather in Western Australia during the March quarter. Meanwhile, BHP has flagged plans to sell its Fayetteville shale gas fields in the US.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ELLIOTT MANAGEMENT CORPORATION, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, GOLDMAN SACHS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Amazon will eat your business, e-tail entrepreneur warns

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Original article by Michael Bailey
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 2 : 24-Apr-17

Many Australian e-commerce retailers are likely to be tempted to join Amazon Marketplace when it becomes established. However, Caroline McCulloch is not one of them. McCulloch, who is the co-founder of Frankie4, a Brisbane-based footwear designer and e-commerce retailer, says the likely negatives of joining Amazon Marketplace outweigh the possible benefits.

CORPORATES
AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, FRANKIE4 PTY LTD

Westpac’s Maxsted talks down need for capital

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 17 & 20 : 11-Apr-17

Westpac chairman Lindsay Maxsted is confident that recent measures aimed at curbing investor-only home loans will be sufficient and additional intervention by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority will not be necessary. Maxsted also believes that the nation’s banks will not need to undertake further equity raisings in order to comply with new capital requirements. He adds that Westpac has prudent lending practices and will not approve loan applications for customers who may be at risk of default.

CORPORATES
WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP

M&A seen as resilient to shocks

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 11-Apr-17

Data from Dealogic shows that $US11.9bn ($A15.9bn) worth of takeover bids for Australian companies were announced in the March 2017 quarter, which is 38 per cent lower year-on-year. Meanwhile, Deloitte has released a report which forecasts that global uncertainty will weigh upon mergers and acquisitions activity in 2017. However, the firm expects an upturn in M&A activity when the uncertainty abates. Timothy Mahapatra of Deloitte notes that deal-making is still a priority for many companies.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, DELOITTE TOUCHE TOHMATSU LIMITED, MACQUARIE CAPITAL PTY LTD, ALINTA ENERGY (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, CHOW TAI FOOK ENTERPRISES LIMITED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Fairfax spikes on talk of takeover

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Original article by Mitchell Bingemann, Stephen Brook
The Australian – Page: 21 : 30-Mar-17

Shares in Fairfax Media closed 2.8 per cent higher at $A1.095 on 29 March 2017, after reaching a six-year high of $A1.15. The stock has rallied on the strength of speculation that TPG Capital has been actively buying Fairfax shares and could launch a takeover bid. The private equity firm is believed to have held talks with other media groups regarding Fairfax assets in the event of a takeover play.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, TPG CAPITAL LP, DOMAIN.COM.AU, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, PLATINUM CAPITAL FUND, CERBERUS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP, FORTRESS INVESTMENT GROUP LLC, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, GILBERT AND TOBIN LAWYERS, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG