BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Laws not the only obstacle to mega-mergers

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 20-Mar-17

The Australian Government’s cross-media ownership reform bill is slated to be debated by the Senate on 20 Match 2017. However, even if the bill is passed by Parliament, it remains uncertain as to whether the reforms will result in large-scale mergers in the media sector. Aside from the fact that there may not be sufficient support among executives and shareholders for such deals, any mergers would be aimed primarily at competing with Google and Facebook for advertising revenue in the long-term, rather than rival media companies.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, PRIME MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX PRT, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, NOVA ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, MULTI CHANNEL NETWORK PTY LTD, SKY NEWS, APN NEWS AND MEDIA LIMITED – ASX APN, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, AUSTRALIAN GREENS

Earnings the focus as Nine pledges to regain revenue share

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Original article by Mitchell Bingemann
The Australian – Page: 21 : 24-Feb-17

Nine Entertainment Company has posted a 2016-17 interim loss of $A236.9m, after writing down the value of its TV assets by $A260m. Underlying net profit fell by four per cent to $A75m, and group revenue was five per cent lower at $A659.2m. The TV division’s revenue was also down five per cent, at $A578.2m. Nine CEO Hugh Marks is upbeat about the outlook for the second half, noting a rise in its TV ratings and indications of an improvement in the advertising market.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, WARNER BROS

Mixed views on dollar’s chance of hitting US80c

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 28 : 15-Feb-17

The Australian dollar rallied on 14 February 2017, benefiting from factors such as an upbeat business survey and a strong rise in the Chinese producer price index. The currency has reached a two-year high on a trade-weighted index basis, while it is within sight of the 2016 high of $US0.7835. However, the spot price of iron ore may not be sustainable at the current elevated level, while the gap between official interest rates in Australia and the US is likely to narrow as the Federal Reserve gears up to tighten monetary policy.

CORPORATES
UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Rio Tinto hit with more delay for Indo copper

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 6-Feb-17

Freeport-McMoran has advised that Rio Tinto’s share of production from the Grasberg copper and gold mine is unlikely to increase until at least 2023. Rio was slated to receive 40 per cent of the Indonesian mine’s output from 2021 under an agreement between the two companies, but Freeport has attributed the expected delay to factors such as a series of interruptions to production at the mine in the last several years. Meanwhile, Rio is forecast to post EBITDA of $US13bn and revenue of $US34.3bn for calendar 2016.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD INCORPORATED, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BLOOMBERG LP

Bellamy’s vulnerable to takeover

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Original article by Carrie LaFrenz
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 23 : 13-Jan-17

Shares in infant formula group Bellamy’s Australia shed 18 per cent to close at $A4.40 on 12 January 2017. The stock fell 20 per cent in the previous session, after being in a trading halt since early December. There is growing speculation that the company could become a takeover target. Belinda Moore of Morgans Financial says it would be attractive to suitors, but notes that turning around its fortunes could take up to 18 months. Bellamy’s shareholder Jan Cameron has ruled out making a takeover bid, although she will continue to push for changes to its board of directors.

CORPORATES
BELLAMY’S AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX BAL, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BLACK PRINCE PRIVATE FOUNDATION, FONTERRA CO-OPERATIVE GROUP LIMITED, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, WILSON HTM LIMITED

Hopes for investor pay dirt look grim

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 13 & 14 : 10-Jan-17

The rebound in the price of iron ore and coking coal will boost the profits of mining companies in fiscal 2017. Anna Kassianos of Platypus Asset Management says investors should not expect a significant rise in dividends, arguing that some of the increased earnings are likely to be retained to invest in growth strategies and maintenance work that was deferred when commodities prices retreated. Bloomberg expects BHP Billiton, Fortescue Metals Group and South32 to be among the miners that increase their dividends.

CORPORATES
PLATYPUS ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, BLOOMBERG LP, ARGONAUT SECURITIES PTY LTD, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Mining, energy exports tipped to top $200b

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 4 : 9-Jan-17

The office of the chief economist, Mark Cully, has released a report which forecasts that Australia’s mining and energy exports will reach a record $A203.9bn in 2016-17. This compares with just $A157.1bn in the previous financial year. The prices of key commodities such as iron ore and coal have rallied since a previous report had forecast that the value of mining and energy exports would total $A163.4bn in 2016-17. However, Cully expects the average price of both commodities to fall in 2017.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF INDUSTRY, INNOVATION AND SCIENCE. OFFICE OF THE CHIEF ECONOMIST, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Mining deals set to rebound

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Original article by Matt Chambers, Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 16 : 6-Jan-17

Rising commodity prices are likely to prompt Australian mining companies to seek growth opportunities through mergers and acquisitions (M&A). In 2016, M&A activity was subdued, with total transactions worth only $A6.9 billion, compared with $A71.9 billion in the boom year of 2007.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ALCAN INCORPORATED, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RBC CAPITAL (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, GENESEE AND WYOMING INCORPORATED, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, ORBIS GOLD LIMITED – ASX OBS, EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, ALLEN AND OVERY, MMG LIMITED – ASX MMG

Festive joy for Myer, JB Hi-Fi

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Original article by Jessica Gardner
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 14 : 6-Jan-17

Australian retailers recorded solid sales during Christmas. Citi analysts have found that department store Myer and electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi performed particularly well. Wesfarmers’ Target and Harvey Norman used discounting to entice shoppers to their stores. In their 2016-17 profit estimates, Citi analysts are optimistic about Myer and pessimistic about OrotonGroup and Specialty Fashion.

CORPORATES
MYER HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX MYR, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, TARGET AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, GOOD GUYS, CITI AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, OROTONGROUP LIMITED – ASX ORL, SPECIALTY FASHION GROUP LIMITED – ASX SFH, COLES GROUP LIMITED, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES

Gas crunch bites with price hikes

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 : 6-Jan-17

Manufacturers have raised concerns about imminent shortages in gas supply and their impact on prices. Mark Chellew, chairman of Manufacturing Australia, says a period of between mid-2017 and late 2018 will be particularly difficult. According to EnergyQuest, a supply shortfall will reach 172 petajoules in 2020 and 205 petajoules in 2025.

CORPORATES
MANUFACTURING AUSTRALIA LIMITED, ENERGYQUEST PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR LIMITED, VICTORIA WOOL PROCESSORS, ENERGYAUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION