BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Miners’ $8.3b revenue jump to lift profits

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 5-Jan-17

Australia’s biggest listed mining companies are believed to have recorded a rise of $US6 billion (($A8.3 billion)) in combined revenues because of higher commodity prices. Analysts expect BHP Billiton to announce in February 2017 that revenues for the six months to 31 December 2016 rose 20 per cent to $US19.1 billion. Rio Tinto is likely to buy back shares worth $US2 billion.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED – ASX WHC

Pilbara property crash could be over

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Original article by Julie-anne Sprague
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 5-Jan-17

House prices in Western Australia’s Pilbara region are unlikely to continue to decline. Hedland Property Shop MD Jim Henneberry says a recent increase in sales turnover suggests that the local real estate market is about to rebound, after several years of dramatic falls. The median house price in South Hedland fell 70 per cent in just four years, from $A850,000 to $A250,000.

CORPORATES
HEDLEY PROPERTY SHOP, SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA

Foreign property interest to run strong

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Original article by Scott Murdoch
The Australian – Page: 13 : 4-Jan-17

Foreign investors bought $A10 billion worth of Australian commercial property in 2016. Large transactions included the acquisition of Dexus’s Southgate complex in Melbourne by ARA Property Group. The $A578 million transaction was executed in August. JLL CEO Stephen Conry expects strong interest in Australian property among foreign buyers to continue in 2017.

CORPORATES
JONES LANG LASALLE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP – ASX DXS, ARA PROPERTY GROUP, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, INMARK PTY LTD, ASCENDAS PTE LTD, SINGBRIDGE GROUP, COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Why the gloom merchants got housing wrong

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 3 : 4-Jan-17

Property prices are still rising, despite predictions of a decline. CoreLogic’s Home Value Index for December 2016 shows that they rose 10.9 per cent in the five main capital cities in 2016. They increased eight per cent in 2015. Louis Christopher, of SQM Research, says house prices are rising because of factors such as low interest rates, population growth and inadequate supply.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS, DOMAIN.COM.AU, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, BIS SHRAPNEL PTY LTD, MACRO ASSOCIATES PTY LTD, CITI AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Maintenance boom for resources

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 19-Dec-16

BIS Shrapnel forecasts that Australia’s resources sector will increase expenditure on maintenance work by 52 per cent over the next five years, to $A10bn. Adrian Hart of BIS says this will include both expenditure that has been deferred and spending on new assets. He adds that there could be some consolidation in the mining services sector as a result. The oil and gas sector is expected to account for the bulk of the increased expenditure on maintenance activity.

CORPORATES
BIS SHRAPNEL PTY LTD, PROGRAMMED MAINTENANCE SERVICES LIMITED – ASX PRG, SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SVW, WORLEYPARSONS LIMITED – ASX WOR, MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED – ASX MND, UGL LIMITED – ASX UGL, CIMIC GROUP LIMITED – ASX CIM, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Mining sector costs on rise as cycle turns

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 15 & 16 : 19-Dec-16

There are indications of an upturn in mining industry activity in Australia in the wake of rising commodity prices. Independence Group CEO Peter Bradford notes that there is growing demand for mining equipment and the services of mining contractors, as well as growing competition for skilled labour. Fortescue Metals Group CEO Nev Power adds that it is becoming more difficult for the iron ore miner to achieve further cost savings, particularly with the rising oil price, which has in turn increased the cost of diesel fuel.

CORPORATES
INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL – ASX IGO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BARMINCO PTY LTD, DFP RECRUITMENT SERVICES PTY LTD, REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX RRL, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

IPO pipeline could start to run dry next year

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Original article by Sally Patten, Joyce Moullakis, Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 17 : 19-Dec-16

Fund managers are bearish about the outlook for Australia’s IPO market in 2017. Data from Dealogic shows that a total of $US4.3bn was raised via IPOs in 2016, compared with $US5.6bn in 2015. Wilson Asset Management’s Chris Stott notes that many IPOs in the second half of 2016 have underperformed, which he says reflects a decline in the quality of companies that are listing. Kogan.com and Inghams are among the IPOs that have underperformed. In contrast, Afterpay has gained around 180 per cent since its sharemarket debut in May.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT, KOGAN.COM LIMITED – ASX KGN, INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED – ASX ING, PROPERTYLINK GROUP LIMITED – ASX PLG, REDBUBBLE LIMITED – ASX RBL, SILVER HERITAGE GROUP LIMITED – ASX SVH, AFTERPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX AFY, WELLARD LIMITED – ASX WLD, BAKER AND McKENZIE, TPG CAPITAL LP, CYAN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, FORAGER FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Lenders see sanity return to home loans

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 15 & 18 : 19-Dec-16

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank CEO Mike Hirst notes that Australia’s four major banks are offering smaller discounts on mortgage interest rates than in the first half of 2016. He adds that the banks would have struggled to achieve a good return on these loans given the size of some discounts. Credit Union Australia CEO Rob Goudswaard expects a rise in mortgage interest rates after a period of intense competition. He also does anticipate a rise in the cash rate in 2017.

CORPORATES
BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, CREDIT UNION AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, LIBERTY FINANCIAL PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

M&A in 2017: All about break-ups, bear hugs and mining

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 21 : 16-Dec-16

Data from Dealogic shows that the total value of announced mergers and acquisitions in Australia has topped $US97bn ($A129bn) in 2016, compared with $US93.7bn in 2015. The total value of completed deals has fallen from $US92.7bn to $US82.9bn. Meanwhile, Simon Haddy and Tony Damian of law firm Herbert Smith Freehills expect more large-scale M&A deals in 2017 and strong takeover activity in the resources sector. They also forcast that North American suitors in particular will be active in the Australian market, and expect there to be more emphasis on consortium bids with a view to breaking up companies.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, TATTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX TTS, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, KKR AND COMPANY LP, NORTH HAVEN INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, FIRST STATE SUPER, APN OUTDOOR GROUP LIMITED – ASX APO, OOH!MEDIA LIMITED – ASX OML, BAIN CAPITAL LLC, CAMP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSGRID PTY LTD, PORT OF MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA. FOREIGN INVESTMENT REVIEW BOARD, AUSTRALIA. TAKEOVERS PANEL

Under-30s turning their backs on private health

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Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 4 : 13-Dec-16

Data from comparison website iSelect shows that a growing number of Australians under the age of 31 are questioning the need for private health insurance. CEO Scott Wilson notes that the lifetime health cover loading has ceased to be an incentive for younger people to take out private cover, as many are satisfied to use the public hospital system. Wilson expects private health insurance premiums to rise by 4.5 per cent to five per cent in 2017.

CORPORATES
ISELECT LIMITED – ASX ISU