BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Maintenance boom for resources

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 19-Dec-16

BIS Shrapnel forecasts that Australia’s resources sector will increase expenditure on maintenance work by 52 per cent over the next five years, to $A10bn. Adrian Hart of BIS says this will include both expenditure that has been deferred and spending on new assets. He adds that there could be some consolidation in the mining services sector as a result. The oil and gas sector is expected to account for the bulk of the increased expenditure on maintenance activity.

CORPORATES
BIS SHRAPNEL PTY LTD, PROGRAMMED MAINTENANCE SERVICES LIMITED – ASX PRG, SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SVW, WORLEYPARSONS LIMITED – ASX WOR, MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED – ASX MND, UGL LIMITED – ASX UGL, CIMIC GROUP LIMITED – ASX CIM, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Mining sector costs on rise as cycle turns

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 15 & 16 : 19-Dec-16

There are indications of an upturn in mining industry activity in Australia in the wake of rising commodity prices. Independence Group CEO Peter Bradford notes that there is growing demand for mining equipment and the services of mining contractors, as well as growing competition for skilled labour. Fortescue Metals Group CEO Nev Power adds that it is becoming more difficult for the iron ore miner to achieve further cost savings, particularly with the rising oil price, which has in turn increased the cost of diesel fuel.

CORPORATES
INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL – ASX IGO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BARMINCO PTY LTD, DFP RECRUITMENT SERVICES PTY LTD, REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX RRL, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

IPO pipeline could start to run dry next year

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Original article by Sally Patten, Joyce Moullakis, Jessica Sier
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 17 : 19-Dec-16

Fund managers are bearish about the outlook for Australia’s IPO market in 2017. Data from Dealogic shows that a total of $US4.3bn was raised via IPOs in 2016, compared with $US5.6bn in 2015. Wilson Asset Management’s Chris Stott notes that many IPOs in the second half of 2016 have underperformed, which he says reflects a decline in the quality of companies that are listing. Kogan.com and Inghams are among the IPOs that have underperformed. In contrast, Afterpay has gained around 180 per cent since its sharemarket debut in May.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT, KOGAN.COM LIMITED – ASX KGN, INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED – ASX ING, PROPERTYLINK GROUP LIMITED – ASX PLG, REDBUBBLE LIMITED – ASX RBL, SILVER HERITAGE GROUP LIMITED – ASX SVH, AFTERPAY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX AFY, WELLARD LIMITED – ASX WLD, BAKER AND McKENZIE, TPG CAPITAL LP, CYAN INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, FORAGER FUNDS MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Lenders see sanity return to home loans

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 15 & 18 : 19-Dec-16

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank CEO Mike Hirst notes that Australia’s four major banks are offering smaller discounts on mortgage interest rates than in the first half of 2016. He adds that the banks would have struggled to achieve a good return on these loans given the size of some discounts. Credit Union Australia CEO Rob Goudswaard expects a rise in mortgage interest rates after a period of intense competition. He also does anticipate a rise in the cash rate in 2017.

CORPORATES
BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, CREDIT UNION AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ, LIBERTY FINANCIAL PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

M&A in 2017: All about break-ups, bear hugs and mining

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 21 : 16-Dec-16

Data from Dealogic shows that the total value of announced mergers and acquisitions in Australia has topped $US97bn ($A129bn) in 2016, compared with $US93.7bn in 2015. The total value of completed deals has fallen from $US92.7bn to $US82.9bn. Meanwhile, Simon Haddy and Tony Damian of law firm Herbert Smith Freehills expect more large-scale M&A deals in 2017 and strong takeover activity in the resources sector. They also forcast that North American suitors in particular will be active in the Australian market, and expect there to be more emphasis on consortium bids with a view to breaking up companies.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, TATTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX TTS, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, KKR AND COMPANY LP, NORTH HAVEN INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, FIRST STATE SUPER, APN OUTDOOR GROUP LIMITED – ASX APO, OOH!MEDIA LIMITED – ASX OML, BAIN CAPITAL LLC, CAMP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSGRID PTY LTD, PORT OF MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA. FOREIGN INVESTMENT REVIEW BOARD, AUSTRALIA. TAKEOVERS PANEL

Under-30s turning their backs on private health

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Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 4 : 13-Dec-16

Data from comparison website iSelect shows that a growing number of Australians under the age of 31 are questioning the need for private health insurance. CEO Scott Wilson notes that the lifetime health cover loading has ceased to be an incentive for younger people to take out private cover, as many are satisfied to use the public hospital system. Wilson expects private health insurance premiums to rise by 4.5 per cent to five per cent in 2017.

CORPORATES
ISELECT LIMITED – ASX ISU

ASIC to scrutinise Bellamy’s trading

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Original article by Damon Kitney, Eli Greenblat
The Australian – Page: 22 : 6-Dec-16

The Australian Securities & Investments Commission will undertake an informal review of trading in the shares of Bellamy’s Australia prior to the release of an earnings update on 2 December 2016. The infant formula group’s shares fell by 43.52 per cent in response to the bearish guidance, and the stock shed another 4.23 per cent on 5 December. Bellamy’s had left its earnings guidance unchanged at the AGM in mid-October.

CORPORATES
BELLAMY’S AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX BAL, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION, KATHMANDU HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX KMD, BLACK PRINCE PRIVATE FOUNDATIONRST, ELLERSTON CAPITAL PTY LTD

Producers spot better returns

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 21 : 6-Dec-16

Data from EnergyQuest shows that the spot price of gas in Adelaide rose to nearly $A10 per gigajoule in the September 2016 quarter, while the spot price in Sydney and Brisbane also rose. In contrast, the LNG netback price at the Wallumbilla processing hub in Queensland fell to around $A6 per gigajoule. EnergyQuest expects LNG producers to capitalise on the rise in gas prices by redirecting more of their output to the domestic market.

CORPORATES
ENERGYQUEST PTY LTD, QUEENSLAND CURTIS LNG PTY LTD, ROYAL DUTCH SHELL PLC

BHP considers selling Bowen Basin coal asset

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 5-Dec-16

A BHP Billiton spokesperson has downplayed speculation that the resources giant could seek a buyer for the Gregory Crinum complex in Queensland, which it owns in partnership with Mitsubishi. BHP had shelved plans to sell Gregory Crinum in 2013, due to a downturn in the coking coal price. However, talk of a possible sale has been prompted by the recent rally in the price of coking coal, which is fetching more than $US300 per tonne. BHP mothballed the Crinum longwall mine in 2015.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, MITSUBISHI CORPORATION, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, BECHTEL PTY LTD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, GLENCORE PLC, BATCHFIRE RESOURCES, AUSTRALIAN PACIFIC COAL LIMITED – ASX AQC, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

Too early to say goodbye to tough times

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 2-Dec-16

AWE Limited CEO David Biggs says that oil and producers are unlikely to increase their capital investment until the longer-term impact of OPEC’s production cuts on the crude oil price is known. He believes that a sustained price above $US60 per barrel will be needed for oil companies to commit to increased spending. Beach Energy director Jim McKerlie agrees that the OPEC deal will not be a "gamechanger" for oil and gas producers.

CORPORATES
AWE LIMITED – ASX AWE, BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, ORGANISATION OF PETROLEUM EXPORTING COUNTRIES, HORIZON OIL LIMITED – ASX HZN, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, WORLEYPARSONS LIMITED – ASX WOR, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, FAR LIMITED – ASX FAR, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS