BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Domain slump only ‘temporary’

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 4-Nov-16

Fairfax Media CEO Greg Hywood warned shareholders at the company’s AGM on 3 November 2016 that Domain’s first half EBITDA will be lower when compared with the previous corresponding period. Hywood described the decline in EBITDA as temporary and stressed that the outlook for Domain is positive. Fairfax shares closed 4.3 per cent lower at $A0.775 on 4 November 2016.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, DOMAIN.COM.AU, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS

Woodside plays down $US5 billion Wheatstone cost blowout

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 1-Nov-16

Woodside Petroleum has advised that a 17 per cent increase in the cost of the Wheatstone LNG project will have limited effect on the capital expenditure guidance it issued in early 2016. The oil and gas producer has a 13 per cent stake in the Chevron-led project, whose total cost has risen by $US5bn ($A6.6bn) to $US34bn. Saul Kavonic of Wood Mackenzie says he had already anticipated a cost over-run of at least 15 per cent.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, CHEVRON CORPORATION, WOOD MACKENZIE, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

Fortescue Metals shares leap on soaring iron ore futures

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Original article by Tess Ingram, James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 26-Oct-16

Iron ore futures traded on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange have risen to the highest level since mid-August 2014. Shares in pure-play iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group responded by rising 6.5 per cent to $A5.44 on 25 October 2016. Meanwhile, Fortescue has advised that it is still targeting a "C1" cost of between $US12 and $US13 per tonne for the 2016-17 financial year, compared with $US15.43 per tonne in 2015-16.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, DALIAN COMMODITY EXCHANGE, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Content the future for telcos: media bosses

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 14 : 25-Oct-16

Seven West Media CEO Tim Worner says A&T’s proposed acquisition of Time Warner has major implications for both telcos and media companies. He believes that more deals of this nature are possible, noting the growing importance of content to telcos. Southern Cross Media Group CEO Grant Blackley says such deals could occur in Australia, and points out that under current media ownership laws his company could be acquired by Telstra but it could not merge with Fairfax Media.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, TIME WARNER INCORPORATED, AT&T CORPORATION, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, PRIME MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX PRT, SINGTEL OPTUS PTY LTD, SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED, ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, FOX SPORTS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BEIN SPORTS, THE A LEAGUE PTY LTD, CRICKET AUSTRALIA, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE, NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, TPG TELECOM LIMITED – ASX TPM, VODAFONE AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Dividend cuts loom despite $23bn profits

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 24-Oct-16

National Australia Bank is tipped to post a 2015-16 cash profit of $A6.55bn on 27 October 2016. The ANZ Bank and Westpac are expected to post full-year profits of $A6.18bn and $A7.8bn respectively in coming weeks, while the Commonwealth Bank has booked a cash profit of $A9.45bn for the year to 30 June. Bank dividends are likely to come under pressure, while Jonathan Mott of UBS expects the banks to post negative growth in earnings per share for the first time since the global financial crisis.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CLYDESDALE BANK PLC, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 BANKS INDEX, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

Record LNG output limits Woodside pain

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 21-Oct-16

Oil and gas producer Woodside Petroleum has reported that it produced 25.2 million barrels of oil equivalent during the September 2016 quarter, which is 13.5 per cent higher than the June quarter. Sales revenue rose by 19.8 per cent to $US988m ($A1.29bn), although this was nine per cent lower year-on-year. Woodside has lifted its full-year production guidance for 2016 to between 92 million and 95 million boe.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CHEVRON CORPORATION

Rio struggles to get Pilbara exports firing

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 21 : 21-Oct-16

Rio Tinto has advised that its Pilbara iron ore shipments for calendar 2016 will be lower than previously forecast, at between 325 million and 330 million tonnes. Its iron ore output in the Pilbara rose by two per cent year-on-year to 83.2 million tonnes in the September quarter, although port and rail maintenance issues resulted in shipments falling by five per cent to 80.9 million tonnes. Rio Tinto has again reduced its full-year production guidance for copper, following a four per cent decline in output during the quarter.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP

FMG boosts exports as big iron falls short

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Original article by Tess Ingram, Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 & 24 : 21-Oct-16

Fortescue Metals Group has reported that its iron ore shipments totalled 43.8 million tonnes during the September 2016 quarter. CEO Nev Power says the group ramped up production ahead of the cyclone season, but adds that it is maintaining its full-year guidance of between 165 million and 170 million tonnes. Fortescue reduced its "C1" costs by five per cent during the quarter, to $US13.55 per tonne. The group aims to reduce this to between $US12 and $US13 during 2016-17.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED

Mortgage price war ‘will hurt dividend’

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 23 : 20-Oct-16

Scott Manning of JP Morgan says stricter capital requirements and a rise in the customer churn rate contributed to a decline in the four major banks’ return on equity from mortgages between 2010 and 2015. He adds that the return from banks’ non-mortgage products fell to the same level as their cost of capital during this period. Manning warns that banks’ dividends will be vulnerable if the return on equity from mortgages falls any further, and he argues that banks should be offering tailored mortgage interest rates that reflect each borrower’s risk profile.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ

Tatts, Tabcorp bet on $9.4bn link

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Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 19-Oct-16

Shares in gaming giants Tabcorp Holdings and Tatts Group were placed in trading halts on 18 October 2016, pending an announcement on a potential scheme of arrangement merger. A merged entity would have a market capitalisation of around $A9.4bn and boast annual synergies of about $A100m. It would also be in a stronger position to pursue growth via offshore acquisitions. The two groups shelved a "merger of equals" proposal in 2015 after failing to reach agreement on valuations.

CORPORATES
TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, TATTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX TTS, UBET, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, SUN BETS, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION