BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Rio struggles to get Pilbara exports firing

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 21 : 21-Oct-16

Rio Tinto has advised that its Pilbara iron ore shipments for calendar 2016 will be lower than previously forecast, at between 325 million and 330 million tonnes. Its iron ore output in the Pilbara rose by two per cent year-on-year to 83.2 million tonnes in the September quarter, although port and rail maintenance issues resulted in shipments falling by five per cent to 80.9 million tonnes. Rio Tinto has again reduced its full-year production guidance for copper, following a four per cent decline in output during the quarter.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP

FMG boosts exports as big iron falls short

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Original article by Tess Ingram, Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 & 24 : 21-Oct-16

Fortescue Metals Group has reported that its iron ore shipments totalled 43.8 million tonnes during the September 2016 quarter. CEO Nev Power says the group ramped up production ahead of the cyclone season, but adds that it is maintaining its full-year guidance of between 165 million and 170 million tonnes. Fortescue reduced its "C1" costs by five per cent during the quarter, to $US13.55 per tonne. The group aims to reduce this to between $US12 and $US13 during 2016-17.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, VALE SA, GRANGE RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GRR, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED

Mortgage price war ‘will hurt dividend’

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 23 : 20-Oct-16

Scott Manning of JP Morgan says stricter capital requirements and a rise in the customer churn rate contributed to a decline in the four major banks’ return on equity from mortgages between 2010 and 2015. He adds that the return from banks’ non-mortgage products fell to the same level as their cost of capital during this period. Manning warns that banks’ dividends will be vulnerable if the return on equity from mortgages falls any further, and he argues that banks should be offering tailored mortgage interest rates that reflect each borrower’s risk profile.

CORPORATES
JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, DIGITAL FINANCE ANALYTICS, BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED – ASX BOQ

Tatts, Tabcorp bet on $9.4bn link

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Original article by Sarah-Jane Tasker
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 19-Oct-16

Shares in gaming giants Tabcorp Holdings and Tatts Group were placed in trading halts on 18 October 2016, pending an announcement on a potential scheme of arrangement merger. A merged entity would have a market capitalisation of around $A9.4bn and boast annual synergies of about $A100m. It would also be in a stronger position to pursue growth via offshore acquisitions. The two groups shelved a "merger of equals" proposal in 2015 after failing to reach agreement on valuations.

CORPORATES
TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, TATTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX TTS, UBET, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, SUN BETS, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION

AFIC warns on bank dividends

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Original article by Simon Evans
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 25 : 18-Oct-16

Australian Foundation Investment Company MD Ross Barker expects the S&P/ASX 200 to be trading at around its current level in 12 months’ time. However, he expects the 50 largest stocks to outperform small- and medium-capitalisation stocks over the next year. Barker does not anticipate any further easing of monetary policy and says there is potential for a rise in the cash rate before the end of 2017. He adds that the major banks may not be able to sustain their dividend payouts, while large miners could potentially increase their dividends in the next few years.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIAN FOUNDATION INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED – ASX AFI, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW

Red flags to watch for in M&A season

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 16 : 18-Oct-16

Data from Mergermarket shows that the value of mergers and acquisitions fell by 20 per cent globally in the first nine months of 2016, to $US2.2trn ($A2.9trn). M&A activity in Australia is rising as the end of the calendar year approaches. Anthony Aboud of Perpetual has identified a number of factors which may indicate that a company is making acquisitions for the wrong reasons. These include pursuing deals solely in the interests of diversification, paying too much for goodwill and making acquisitions that are motivated by financial incentives.

CORPORATES
PERPETUAL LIMITED – ASX PPT, MERGERMARKET LIMITED, CIMIC GROUP LIMITED – ASX CIM, UGL LIMITED – ASX UGL, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, THE GOOD GUYS, FANTASTIC HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX FAN, STEINHOFF INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED, FREEDOM FURNITURE, SNOOZE SLEEP WELL PTY LTD, THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INCORPORATED, SLATER AND GORDON LIMITED – ASX SGH, QUINDELL PLC, PERPETUAL’S SHARE-PLUS LONG SHORT FUND

Property sentiment strengthens despite negatives

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Original article by Robert Harley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 41 : 13-Oct-16

The ANZ/Property Council Survey of real estate and construction industry sentiment for the third quarter of 2016 shows an improvement of two percentage points in confidence. A net 29 per cent of property and construction executives and investors are optimistic about the prospects for the property sector over the next 12 months, compared with 27 per cent in the previous quarter. An improvement in confidence occurred in all states except Queensland and South Australia.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, PROPERTY COUNCIL OF AUSTRALIA LIMITED, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, UNIVERSITY OF MELBOURNE. INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

Commodities surge lifts outlook

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Original article by Barry FitzGerald, David Rogers, Sue Neales
The Australian – Page: 19 & 31 : 13-Oct-16

Copper and uranium are Australia’s only major resources commodity exports that have not posted strong gains in 2016. Coking and thermal coal in particular have rallied in the year to date, and Paul Bloxham of HSBC believes that the nation’s "income recession" is over. He estimates that nominal GDP could be boosted by around two per cent if the rise in coal prices is sustained, a view shared by the ANZ Bank. There has also been a big rise in the export price of beef, although drought caused Australian shipment to fall in 2015-16.

CORPORATES
HSBC AUSTRALIA HOLDINGS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, PEABODY ENERGY AUSTRALIA COAL PTY LTD, NIPPON STEEL AND SUMITOMO METAL CORPORATION, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY, RABOBANK AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Amazon all set to flow here

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 10-Oct-16

Amazon has declined to comment on speculation that its Prime Video subscription video-on-demand service could be launched in Australia in November 2016, to coincide with the global debut of "The Grand Tour". The program is hosted by former "Top Gear" presenters Jeremy Clarkson, Richard Hammond and James May. Amazon may opt to delay the local launch of its SVOD service until 2017, to enable it to build up a larger range of original and licensed content.

CORPORATES
AMAZON.COM INCORPORATED, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, PRESTO ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, CBS CORPORATION, SHOWTIME, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, HBO, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG, SANDVINE INCORPORATED

BHP keeps the faith in US shale business

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 & 24 : 6-Oct-16

The head of BHP Billiton’s petroleum division, Steve Pastor, is upbeat about the group’s US shale operations. He is particularly bullish about the Permian shale field in West Texas, noting that it could potentially become the division’s biggest source of production and cash flow within five years. Meanwhile, Pastor says BHP will consider acquisitions that add value, but it will only pursue deals that are appropriately priced. He has also forecast a global oil shortage in 2017.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, BP PLC