BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Review may force funds to merge

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Original article by Michael Roddan
The Australian – Page: 23 : 22-Sep-16

Superannuation industry experts suggest that any move to introduce alternatives to the default super fund system could result in more consolidation in the sector. Potential options that have been canvassed by the Productivity Commission in an issues paper include a tender system for default funds. Financial Services Council CEO Sally Loane notes that smaller funds with high fees may be forced to merge if the default super regime is opened to more competition.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA. PRODUCTIVITY COMMISSION, FINANCIAL SERVICES COUNCIL, AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF SUPERANNUATION TRUSTEES, RICE WARNER ACTUARIES PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN PRUDENTIAL REGULATION AUTHORITY

Teoh focused on TPG future despite hurdles

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13/18 : 21-Sep-16

TPG Telecom has posted a 2015-16 net profit of $A384.6m, which is 71.6 per cent higher than previously. TPG anticipates that its underlying EBITDA for 2016-17 will be $A820m to $A830m, and capital expenditure will be between $A370m and $A420m. CFO Craig Levy has warned that the price ISPs pay for wholesale services from NBN Co are too high and will have to fall as more customers migrate to the national broadband network. TPG shares closed 21.4 per cent lower at $A9.28 on 20 September 2016.

CORPORATES
TPG TELECOM LIMITED – ASX TPM, NBN CO LIMITED, IINET LIMITED, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, SINGTEL OPTUS PTY LTD, OPHIR ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD

Orocobre tips ongoing demand for lithium

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 22 : 20-Sep-16

Australian-listed Orocobre has posted a 2015-16 loss of $US21.9m ($A29m). However, CEO Richard Seville is upbeat about the outlook for lithium, and he believes that producers will struggle to meet growing global demand. Orocobre produced 6,903 tonnes of lithium in 2015-16, and the group forecasts output of at least 15,000 tonnes in 2016-17. It has also advised that its Salar de Olaroz project in Argentina should reach nameplate capacity in the current financial year.

CORPORATES
OROCOBRE LIMITED – ASX ORE, GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX GXY, PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED – ASX PLS, NEOMETALS LIMITED – ASX NMT

LNG plants set for $20bn energy boom

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 18 : 12-Sep-16

LNG producers may commit to new projects in coming years in order to capitalise on the fact that the North West Shelf and Darwin LNG processing plants will soon have spare capacity. Wood Mackenzie expects the plants to have spare capacity by 2021, as production at these projects declines. Saul Kavonic of Wood Mackenzie says the Scarborough or Greater Gorgon gas fields could potentially yield low-cost LNG by using the North West Shelf infrastructure.

CORPORATES
WOOD MACKENZIE, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, DARWIN LNG PTY LTD, NORTH WEST SHELF LNG PTY LTD, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, CONOCOPHILLIPS, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, KAROON GAS AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX KAR

Zero rates eould smash the banks

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 : 8-Sep-16

A decline in the cash rate to zero would have a negative impact on returns from Australian banking stocks. Credit Suisse analysts Jarrod Martin and James Ellis have calculated that such a scenario would trigger a fall in earnings of the major banks by an average of nine per cent or $A2.7 billion in total. Consequently, the banks would have to respond to a fall in return on equity by reducing their dividend payout ratios.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ

Low $A, ad push to spur tourist growth

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Original article by Mark Ludlow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 8 : 26-Aug-16

Deloitte Access Economics states in its tourism and hotel market outlook that the number of international visitors rose by 10 per cent in 2015. Meanwhile, visitor spending has increased by 17.9 per cent over the past five years. The firm forecasts an annual average growth of 6.2 per cent in international visitors over the next three years.

CORPORATES
DELOITTE ACCESS ECONOMICS PTY LTD, TOURISM AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Doubts on Fortescue dividends

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 24-Aug-16

Analysts are divided regarding Fortescue Metals Group’s dividends in coming years, after the pure-play iron ore miner announced a total payout of $A0.15 per share for 2015-16. Paul McTaggart of Credit Suisse expects the total dividend to rise to $A0.17 in 2016-17, before falling to $A0.05 in 2017-18 due to expectations that the iron ore price will fall. Glyn Lawcock of UBS forecasts a dividend of $A0.18 per share in 2016-17 and $A0.11 in 2017-18, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley anticipate a big fall in the total payout for both financial years.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, JEFFERIES AND COMPANY, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL

APN Outdoor savaged after earnings downgrade

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Original article by Jake Mitchell
The Australian – Page: 21 : 23-Aug-16

Australian-listed APN Outdoor has posted a 2016 interim net profit of $A19.5m, which is 49 per cent higher than previously. EBITDA rose by 31 per cent to $A34.8m, and revenue was 10 per cent higher at $A150.6m. However, the outdoor advertising group has advised that it expects EBIT for the full year to be within the range of $A79m to $A84m, down from previous expectations of $A84m to $A88m. APN Outdoor’s shares fell by 35.3 per cent on 22 August, closing at $A5.33.

CORPORATES
APN OUTDOOR GROUP LIMITED – ASX APO, OOH!MEDIA LIMITED – ASX OML, QMS MEDIA LIMITED – ASX QMS, WILSON ASSET MANAGEMENT

CSL shrugs off growth concerns, shares slide

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Original article by Ben Potter
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 22 : 18-Aug-16

CSL has posted a 2015-16 net profit of $US1.24bn ($A1.6bn), which is 10 per cent lower than previously. The blood products and vaccines group’s sales rose by eight per cent to $US6.13bn. Earnings per share fell by eight per cent to $US2.69, but increased by seven per cent on a constant currency basis. CSL has forecast underlying net profit and EBITDA growth of 11 per cent and 14 per cent respectively in 2016-17. Its shares closed five per cent lower at $A110.84 on 17 August 2016.

CORPORATES
CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, SHIRE PHARMACEUTICALS GROUP PLC, NOVARTIS AG, CSL BEHRING, WILSONS ADVISORY AND STOCKBROKING LIMITED, SEQIRUS PTY LTD

Santos faces first loss in 20 years

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 24 : 17-Aug-16

Oil and gas producer Santos is poised to post a 2016 interim loss of nearly $US1bn, although opinion is divided regarding its underlying result. Macquarie Group anticipates an underlying profit of $US40m, but Citigroup and UBS have forecast a loss of $US80m and $US20m respectively. Santos’s total impairment charges over the last three years now exceed $US8bn, including the recent $US1.5bn pre-tax write-down of its stake in the Gladstone LNG project.

CORPORATES
SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD