BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Santos clears the decks with $2bn write-off

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 21 & 24 : 16-Aug-16

Oil and gas producer Santos is tipped to post a 2015-16 loss of at least $US1bn, after revealing an additional $US1.5bn ($A1.96bn) write-down of the Gladstone LNG project. Santos had previously announced asset write-downs totalling $US3.9bn across its business in February. The Gladstone project will be able to produce about 7.8 million tonnes of LNG each year when it reaches full capacity, but Santos has advised that output will be capped at the 7.2 million tonnes that LNG customers have agreed to purchase.

CORPORATES
SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, GLADSTONE LNG PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, ENERGYQUEST PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION

MMG races to ramp up copper

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 23 : 15-Aug-16

MMG’s Las Bambas copper mine in Peru is on track to achieve full-year production of about 348,000 tonnes of copper concentrate, after output rose from 31,470 tonnes to 87,142 tonnes in the June 2016 quarter. Macquarie Group had forecast production of just 75,000 tonnes in the second quarter, and it anticipates output of 450,000 tonnes in 2017. Macquarie has upgraded its recommendation on MMG shares from "neutral" to "outperform", and its share price target has been raised from $A3.15 to $A5.80.

CORPORATES
MMG LIMITED – ASX MMG, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, GUOXIN INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT CORPORATION LIMITED, CITIC LIMITED, XSTRATA AG, GLENCORE PLC

BHP faces record $8.9bn loss

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 23 : 15-Aug-16

BHP Billiton is tipped to post a 2015-16 loss of $US6.8bn ($A8.9bn), with underlying earnings of less than $US1.1bn. The full-year result will be marred by factors such as the impact of lower commodity prices, a massive write-down associated with its US petroleum assets and the impact of the Samarco iron ore tailings dam disaster in Brazil. However, analysts polled by Bloomberg are upbeat about BHP’s outlook, forecasting earnings of about $US2.35bn in 2016-17.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA, VALE SA, BLOOMBERG LP, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Bankers, lawyers to get busy as merger deals poised to pick up

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Original article by Joyce Moullakis
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 12-Aug-16

Data from Dealogic shows that the value of announced mergers and acquisitions deals in Australia in the year-to-date has fallen to an 11-year low of $US36.3bn. However, the Real Flow Predictor report from Intralinks suggests that there will be an upturn in announced M&As in the final quarter of 2016. Karen Evans-Cullen of law firm Clayton Utz is also upbeat about the outlook for M&A activity.

CORPORATES
DEALOGIC (AUSTRALIA) PTY LTD, INTRALINKS PTY LTD, CLAYTON UTZ, AUSGRID PTY LTD, ASCIANO LIMITED – ASX AIO, BROOKFIELD INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS LP, QUBE PROPERTY GROUP PTY LTD, THE GOOD GUYS, NATURE’S CARE, PORT OF MELBOURNE, STATE GRID CORPORATION OF CHINA, CHEUNG KONG INFRASTRUCTURE HOLDINGS LIMITED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE TREASURY

CBA to hand down bumper $9.5bn profit

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 21 & 24 : 8-Aug-16

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is tipped to post a 2015-16 cash profit of $A434m on 8 August 2016, while the Commonwealth Bank of Australia is expected to report a full-year profit of $A9.5bn on 10 August. Scott Manning of JP Morgan says margins are likely to remain a significant focus for the banking major. However, the Reserve Bank does not expect banks’ margins to be adversely affected by recent moves to lift some term deposit interest rates while failing to pass on the full reduction in the cash rate to home loan and business customers.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, MERLON CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, FIRST OIL PLC

Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton enter new era of dividends

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 3-Aug-16

The dividend payouts of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto will be closely scrutinised in the August 2016 reporting season, after their progressive dividend policies were scrapped earlier in the year. BHP has committed to paying shareholders a minimum of 50 per cent of its underlying attributable profit as dividends, while Rio Tinto’s new dividend policy will take into account its financial results and future earnings outlook. Meanwhile, analysts polled by Bloomberg generally expect Rio Tinto to post a 2016 interim underlying net profit after tax of $US1.56bn.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, BLOOMBERG LP, VUMA

Seven earnings plunge but Worner bets on old media comeback

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Original article by Darren Davidson
The Australian – Page: 19 : 3-Aug-16

Shares in Seven West Media and Nine Entertainment Company fell sharply on 2 August 2016, after the former issued a profit warning. Seven has advised that its underlying EBIT for 2016-17 will be 15-20 per cent lower than previously, citing factors such as a slowdown in the advertising market and the rising cost of sports broadcasting rights. Meanwhile, Seven has booked a net profit of $184.3m for the year to 25 June 2016, following a loss of $A1.89bn in 2014-15.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, 7PRODUCTIONS, 7WONDER, 7BEYOND, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE

Beach ponders acquisition within next six months

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 29-Jul-16

Beach Energy has reported that the lower crude oil price resulted in its 2015-16 sales falling by 23.3 per cent, to $A558 million. Full-year production totalled 9.66 barrels of oil equivalent. The group posted sales revenue of $A16.6m for the June quarter, and production for the period rose by 13 per cent to 2.7 million. Beach has also advised that it expects capital expenditure to be within the range of $A180m to $A200m in 2016-17, while it aims to finalise an acquisition in the next six months.

CORPORATES
BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, DRILLSEARCH ENERGY LIMITED, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SVW, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Citi’s Brennan tips resilience in earnings growth

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 34 : 29-Jul-16

The Australian sharemarket currently boasts a forward price-earnings ratio of 16.6 times, but some market watchers expect that the August 2016 reporting season will justify the high earnings multiple. Tony Brennan of Citigroup is upbeat about the reporting season, saying the positive earnings surprises are likely to outweigh the negative surprises. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed at 5556.6 on 27 July, although Brennan expects it to end the year at about 5,500. However, he forecasts that it will rise to 5,750 by mid-2017.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, APPLE INCORPORATED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED

Fortescue to challenge Rio Tinto’s cost crown

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 22 : 28-Jul-16

Fortescue Metals Group’s iron ore production cost fell to $US13.10 per tonne in June 2016, and averaged $US14.31/tonne during the June quarter. Fortescue expects its C1 production costs to be within the range of $US12 to $US13/tonne in 2016-17, and the group expects its iron ore shipments to be between 165 million and 170 million tonnes for the year. Fortescue has significantly reduced its production costs in recent years, with unit costs averaging $US34.03 per tonne in 2014. Fortescue shares rose $A0.29 to $A4.41 on 27 July.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD