BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Spending, tax cuts to buoy firms with US exposure

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Original article by Damon Kitney, Andrew White, Eli Greenblat, Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 21 & 26 : 11-Nov-16

Australian-listed companies with a significant presence in the US do not expect the election of Donald Trump as president to have much impact on their business. Brambles CEO Tom Gorman is upbeat about the logistics group’s outlook, noting that its US customers are primarily in sectors that are not affected by political and economic cycles. Orora CEO Nigel Garrard says the packaging group is optimistic about the economic impact of Trump’s policies on corporate tax cuts and infrastructure spending.

CORPORATES
BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, ORORA LIMITED – ASX ORA, TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED – ASX TWE, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, EVANS AND PARTNERS PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, SYDNEY AIRPORT – ASX SYD, TRANSURBAN GROUP LIMITED – ASX TCL, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, BERINGER WINE ESTATES HOLDINGS INCORPORATED, DIAGEO PLC, NORTH STAR STEEL, PRATT INDUSTRIES (USA) INCORPORATED, OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC

Seven earnings to fall up to 20pc

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 10-Nov-16

Seven West Media chairman Kerry Stokes says broadcasting licence fees and government subsidies for TV production are more important issues than proposed reforms to cross-media ownership laws. Meanwhile, the 2016 AGM has been told that Seven’s underlying EBIT for 2016-17 could be up to 20 per cent lower than previously, as the advertising market remains subdued. Macquarie Group expects a two per cent decline in the TV advertising market in 2016-17.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE

BHP urges suppliers to join tax fight

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 25 & 30 : 10-Nov-16

BHP Billiton executive Mike Henry has warned that mining services firms would be adversely affected by the Western Australian National Party’s proposed increase in the state’s iron ore levy. He says the mining services sector should lobby against the policy, arguing that they will receive less work if the levy is increased from $A0.25 per tonne to $A5, while employment in the sector will fall. Henry also says there should be greater collaboration between resources groups and mining services firms.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ORICA LIMITED – ASX ORI

Banks stare at low growth as pressures rise

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Original article by James Eyers
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 19 : 9-Nov-16

The combined cash earnings of Australia’s four major banks fell by 2.5 per cent in 2015-6, to $A29.6bn. They recorded net interest income growth of 5.5 per cent, to $A60.3bn, but non-interest income was down 3.1 per cent at $A23.5bn. Michael Rowland of KPMG says the banks are facing a number of headwinds, including the prospect of lower growth in revenue and return on equity, growing competition and an increase in regulatory costs.

CORPORATES
KPMG AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, PM CAPITAL LIMITED, ERNST AND YOUNG

Domain slump only ‘temporary’

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 4-Nov-16

Fairfax Media CEO Greg Hywood warned shareholders at the company’s AGM on 3 November 2016 that Domain’s first half EBITDA will be lower when compared with the previous corresponding period. Hywood described the decline in EBITDA as temporary and stressed that the outlook for Domain is positive. Fairfax shares closed 4.3 per cent lower at $A0.775 on 4 November 2016.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, DOMAIN.COM.AU, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS

Woodside plays down $US5 billion Wheatstone cost blowout

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 1-Nov-16

Woodside Petroleum has advised that a 17 per cent increase in the cost of the Wheatstone LNG project will have limited effect on the capital expenditure guidance it issued in early 2016. The oil and gas producer has a 13 per cent stake in the Chevron-led project, whose total cost has risen by $US5bn ($A6.6bn) to $US34bn. Saul Kavonic of Wood Mackenzie says he had already anticipated a cost over-run of at least 15 per cent.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, CHEVRON CORPORATION, WOOD MACKENZIE, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

Fortescue Metals shares leap on soaring iron ore futures

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Original article by Tess Ingram, James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 26-Oct-16

Iron ore futures traded on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange have risen to the highest level since mid-August 2014. Shares in pure-play iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group responded by rising 6.5 per cent to $A5.44 on 25 October 2016. Meanwhile, Fortescue has advised that it is still targeting a "C1" cost of between $US12 and $US13 per tonne for the 2016-17 financial year, compared with $US15.43 per tonne in 2015-16.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, DALIAN COMMODITY EXCHANGE, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Content the future for telcos: media bosses

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 14 : 25-Oct-16

Seven West Media CEO Tim Worner says A&T’s proposed acquisition of Time Warner has major implications for both telcos and media companies. He believes that more deals of this nature are possible, noting the growing importance of content to telcos. Southern Cross Media Group CEO Grant Blackley says such deals could occur in Australia, and points out that under current media ownership laws his company could be acquired by Telstra but it could not merge with Fairfax Media.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, TIME WARNER INCORPORATED, AT&T CORPORATION, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, PRIME MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX PRT, SINGTEL OPTUS PTY LTD, SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED, ENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, FOX SPORTS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BEIN SPORTS, THE A LEAGUE PTY LTD, CRICKET AUSTRALIA, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE, NATIONAL RUGBY LEAGUE, AUSTRALIAN COMPETITION AND CONSUMER COMMISSION, TPG TELECOM LIMITED – ASX TPM, VODAFONE AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Dividend cuts loom despite $23bn profits

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 17 & 21 : 24-Oct-16

National Australia Bank is tipped to post a 2015-16 cash profit of $A6.55bn on 27 October 2016. The ANZ Bank and Westpac are expected to post full-year profits of $A6.18bn and $A7.8bn respectively in coming weeks, while the Commonwealth Bank has booked a cash profit of $A9.45bn for the year to 30 June. Bank dividends are likely to come under pressure, while Jonathan Mott of UBS expects the banks to post negative growth in earnings per share for the first time since the global financial crisis.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CLYDESDALE BANK PLC, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 BANKS INDEX, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

Record LNG output limits Woodside pain

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 24 : 21-Oct-16

Oil and gas producer Woodside Petroleum has reported that it produced 25.2 million barrels of oil equivalent during the September 2016 quarter, which is 13.5 per cent higher than the June quarter. Sales revenue rose by 19.8 per cent to $US988m ($A1.29bn), although this was nine per cent lower year-on-year. Woodside has lifted its full-year production guidance for 2016 to between 92 million and 95 million boe.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CHEVRON CORPORATION