BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

CBA to hand down bumper $9.5bn profit

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 21 & 24 : 8-Aug-16

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is tipped to post a 2015-16 cash profit of $A434m on 8 August 2016, while the Commonwealth Bank of Australia is expected to report a full-year profit of $A9.5bn on 10 August. Scott Manning of JP Morgan says margins are likely to remain a significant focus for the banking major. However, the Reserve Bank does not expect banks’ margins to be adversely affected by recent moves to lift some term deposit interest rates while failing to pass on the full reduction in the cash rate to home loan and business customers.

CORPORATES
COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, BENDIGO AND ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED – ASX BEN, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, WESTPAC BANKING CORPORATION – ASX WBC, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF THE PRIME MINISTER AND CABINET, MERLON CAPITAL PARTNERS PTY LTD, MORGANS FINANCIAL LIMITED, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, FIRST OIL PLC

Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton enter new era of dividends

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 3-Aug-16

The dividend payouts of BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto will be closely scrutinised in the August 2016 reporting season, after their progressive dividend policies were scrapped earlier in the year. BHP has committed to paying shareholders a minimum of 50 per cent of its underlying attributable profit as dividends, while Rio Tinto’s new dividend policy will take into account its financial results and future earnings outlook. Meanwhile, analysts polled by Bloomberg generally expect Rio Tinto to post a 2016 interim underlying net profit after tax of $US1.56bn.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, BLOOMBERG LP, VUMA

Seven earnings plunge but Worner bets on old media comeback

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Original article by Darren Davidson
The Australian – Page: 19 : 3-Aug-16

Shares in Seven West Media and Nine Entertainment Company fell sharply on 2 August 2016, after the former issued a profit warning. Seven has advised that its underlying EBIT for 2016-17 will be 15-20 per cent lower than previously, citing factors such as a slowdown in the advertising market and the rising cost of sports broadcasting rights. Meanwhile, Seven has booked a net profit of $184.3m for the year to 25 June 2016, following a loss of $A1.89bn in 2014-15.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, 7PRODUCTIONS, 7WONDER, 7BEYOND, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE

Beach ponders acquisition within next six months

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Original article by Angela Macdonald-Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 22 : 29-Jul-16

Beach Energy has reported that the lower crude oil price resulted in its 2015-16 sales falling by 23.3 per cent, to $A558 million. Full-year production totalled 9.66 barrels of oil equivalent. The group posted sales revenue of $A16.6m for the June quarter, and production for the period rose by 13 per cent to 2.7 million. Beach has also advised that it expects capital expenditure to be within the range of $A180m to $A200m in 2016-17, while it aims to finalise an acquisition in the next six months.

CORPORATES
BEACH ENERGY LIMITED – ASX BPT, DRILLSEARCH ENERGY LIMITED, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, SEVEN GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX SVW, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED

Citi’s Brennan tips resilience in earnings growth

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Original article by David Rogers
The Australian – Page: 34 : 29-Jul-16

The Australian sharemarket currently boasts a forward price-earnings ratio of 16.6 times, but some market watchers expect that the August 2016 reporting season will justify the high earnings multiple. Tony Brennan of Citigroup is upbeat about the reporting season, saying the positive earnings surprises are likely to outweigh the negative surprises. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 closed at 5556.6 on 27 July, although Brennan expects it to end the year at about 5,500. However, he forecasts that it will rise to 5,750 by mid-2017.

CORPORATES
CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, APPLE INCORPORATED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED

Fortescue to challenge Rio Tinto’s cost crown

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 22 : 28-Jul-16

Fortescue Metals Group’s iron ore production cost fell to $US13.10 per tonne in June 2016, and averaged $US14.31/tonne during the June quarter. Fortescue expects its C1 production costs to be within the range of $US12 to $US13/tonne in 2016-17, and the group expects its iron ore shipments to be between 165 million and 170 million tonnes for the year. Fortescue has significantly reduced its production costs in recent years, with unit costs averaging $US34.03 per tonne in 2014. Fortescue shares rose $A0.29 to $A4.41 on 27 July.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Record prices for Australian cattle unsustainable: Merricks

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Original article by Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 11 & 27 : 26-Jul-16

The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator has risen to $A6.61 a kilogram. Adrian Redlich, the chief investment officer at Melbourne-based commodities hedge fund Merricks Capital, says the Australian beef price index is now at the highest level since it was set up in 1996. He advises farmers to forward sell, as prices are unlikely to stay at current levels for long.

CORPORATES
MERRICKS CAPITAL PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL COMPANY LIMITED – ASX AAC

Dividends back at Newcrest

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Original article by Barry FitzGerald
The Australian – Page: 21 : 26-Jul-16

Australian-listed Newcrest Mining produced 598,037 ounces of gold during the June 2016 quarter, compared with 636,521 ounces in the March quarter. Full-year output was at the lower end of its guidance of between 2.4 million and 2.6 million ounces. However, the group slashed its net debt by 27 per cent to $A2.1bn in 2015-16, prompting some analysts to forecast that it will pay a dividend for the first time since 2013.

CORPORATES
NEWCREST MINING LIMITED – ASX NCM, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Market backs BHP’s bid to buy Anglo coal

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 25-Jul-16

BHP Billiton has declined to comment on speculation that it is poised to acquire Anglo American’s coal assets in Queensland, with the auction process nearing its end. BHP is said to be the only remaining bidder for the assets, which initially attracted interest from companies such as Glencore and Yancoal. The Anglo American assets include the Moranbah North and Grosvenor metallurgical coal mines, and some market analysts say the deal should generate significant synergies for BHP.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, GLENCORE PLC, YANCOAL AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX YAL, AMERICAN METALS AND COAL INTERNATIONAL INCORPORATED, XCOAL ENERGY AND RESOURCES LLC, BM ALLIANCE COAL OPERATIONS PTY LTD, MITSUBISHI CORPORATION, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, TRIBECA GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES FUND, AUSTRALIAN FOUNDATION INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED – ASX AFI, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Growth returns to BHP but not in petroleum

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 22 : 21-Jul-16

BHP Billiton plans to lift iron ore, copper, coking coal and nickel production in 2016-17, after the coking coal division was the only one that increased production in 2015-16. However, the petroleum division is expected to reduce production by 13-17 per cent, after output was cut by six per cent in 2015-16. Meanwhile, iron ore shipments from BHP’s mines in Western Australia totalled 257 million tonnes in 2015-16, compared with the group’s target of 260 million tonnes. Output is slated to be within the range of 265 million to 275 million tonnes in 2016-17.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, BT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED – ASX BTT, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED