BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Gold deals tipped to heat up in West Africa

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 21-Jun-16

Shares in Australian-listed Gryphon Minerals finished 22.2 per cent higher at $A0.165 on 20 June 2016, in response to a takover bid from Teranga Gold. Both companies have gold projects in West Africa, and Scott Williamson of Hartleys anticipates further consolidation among gold players with a presence in the region. Duncan Hughes of Somers & Partners expects North American miners in particular to target West Africa-focused Australian gold producers.

CORPORATES
GRYPHON MINERALS LIMITED – ASX GRY, TERANGA GOLD CORPORATION – ASX TGZ, HARTLEYS LIMITED, SOMERS AND PARTNERS PTY LTD, PERSEUS MINING LIMITED – ASX PRU, AMARA MINING, ENDEAVOUR MINING CORPORATION, TRUE GOLD MINING, RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED – ASX RSG, WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX WAF, CARDINAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX CDV

After 50 years, Exxon and BHP quietly pull plug on Bass Strait oil

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 26 : 15-Jun-16

Oil output in Bass Strait has fallen to around 40,000 barrels a day, compared with 500,000 a day when production was at its peak. ExxonMobil is believed to be seeking to offload a number of production licences in Bass Strait, which has yielded more than four billion barrels of oil for the group since it established a joint venture with BHP Billiton in the 1960s. The Bass Strait oilfields’ reserves are rapidly being exhausted, although the region holds considerable gas reserves.

CORPORATES
EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SCHLUMBERGER LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Mining capex slump ‘only half finished’

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 14-Jun-16

National Australia Bank notes that capital expenditure in the mining sector has fallen to around 4.5 per cent of GDP, compared with eight per cent at the height of the resources boom. The bank expects capex to reach a low of just 1.5 per cent of GDP by 2018. NAB also notes that the downturn in employment in the mining sector has been slower than anticipated, although this is expected to gather pace in coming years with the loss of a net 50,000 by 2019.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Gold’s M&A to scale down as sales dry up

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 9-Jun-16

Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources are among the mid-tier gold producers that have benefited from the asset sales programs of larger global rivals in recent years. Evolution chairman Jake Klein cautions that future opportunities for acquisitions in the sector will become limited, with fewer large projects likely to be put up for sale. He says the focus is likely to shift to exploration and development, and he has called for greater collaboration between mid-tier and small gold miners.

CORPORATES
EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX NST, OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION – ASX OGC, BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION, NEWMONT MINING CORPORATION, ASSOCIATION OF MINING AND EXPLORATION COMPANIES, INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL – ASX IGO, SIRIUS RESOURCES NL

Aldi closes in on giants as profitability grows

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 31-May-16

UBS has forecast that Aldi will record annual growth in grocery sales in Australia of 15 per cent over the next three years. This is 4-5 times higher than the sector’s growth rate overall. Ben Gilbert of UBS forecasts that Aldi’s share of the national grocery market will exceed 10 per cent by 2019-20, compared with about seven per cent at present. He believes that the discount grocery chain will soon reach a "tipping point" in terms of its share of consumers’ main grocery shop.

CORPORATES
ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, LIDL GMBH & CO KG

M&A won’t solve BHP’s growth questions

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 31-May-16

Citi analyst Clarke Wilkins notes that BHP Billiton has performed poorly in terms of mergers and acquisitions in recent years, and its high level of debt is likely to rule out acquisitions in the next several years. Wilkins adds that there is a dearth of suitable acquisitions at present, particularly in the copper and oil sectors, and he suggests that the resources giant could instead consider asset sales. He identifies BHP’s petroleum division as a potential candidate for asset sales.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, POTASH CORPORATION OF SASKATCHEWAN INCORPORATED, GLENCORE PLC, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32

Negative yields could be on the way to Australia’s market

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 & 26 : 26-May-16

The yield on Australian government bonds recently reached a record low of 2.2 per cent, and Arif Husain of T. Rowe Price has warned that yields may eventually fall into negative territory. The head of international fixed income says investors should consider whether bonds continue to provide the level of income and stability they require. He favour Serbian bonds for income and Swedish covered bonds for stability, with the latter hedged in Australian dollars.

CORPORATES
T ROWE PRICE GROUP INCORPORATED

Morgan Stanley adds to gloom with 1pc rate tip

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 26-May-16

Investment bank Morgan Stanley has forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate from 1.75 per cent to just one per cent by mid-2017. Chris Nicol and Daniel Blake of Morgan Stanley expect more aggressive monetary policy easing due to factors such as the need to reduce the value of the Australian dollar. They note that banks in particular will be adversely affected by a much lower cash rate, although there is likely to be a minimal impact on consumer stocks.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Overvalued Aussie dollar could dive below US50c, warns ANZ

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 26-May-16

The Australian dollar is currently trading above $US0.71, but Daniel Been of the ANZ Bank warns that it could potentially test the $US0.50 level. While the currency has shed 35 per cent against its US counterpart over the last five years, Been says its continued resilience can be partly attributed to Australia’s "AAA" credit rating, which has led to the dollar being regarded as a safe-haven currency. He notes that factors such as Australia’s current account deficit and high government debt would not usually result in such strong support for the currency.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, STRATTON STREET CAPITAL LLP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Flight Centre slides as brokers cut forecasts

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Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 25-May-16

Shares in Flight Centre Travel Group have shed 13.5 per cent in two trading sessions, in the wake of an earnings downgrade. The stock closed five per cent lower at $A31.88 on 24 May 2016. Deutsche Bank has reduced its 12-month share price target by 25 per cent to $A36, while Bell Potter’s target price has been slashed by 12 per cent to $A35.70. Deutsche has also reduced its recommendation on the stock from "buy" to "hold".

CORPORATES
FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED – ASX FLT, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED, AUNT BETTY