BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Negative yields could be on the way to Australia’s market

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Original article by Vesna Poljak, Jonathan Shapiro
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 & 26 : 26-May-16

The yield on Australian government bonds recently reached a record low of 2.2 per cent, and Arif Husain of T. Rowe Price has warned that yields may eventually fall into negative territory. The head of international fixed income says investors should consider whether bonds continue to provide the level of income and stability they require. He favour Serbian bonds for income and Swedish covered bonds for stability, with the latter hedged in Australian dollars.

CORPORATES
T ROWE PRICE GROUP INCORPORATED

Morgan Stanley adds to gloom with 1pc rate tip

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 35 : 26-May-16

Investment bank Morgan Stanley has forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia will reduce the cash rate from 1.75 per cent to just one per cent by mid-2017. Chris Nicol and Daniel Blake of Morgan Stanley expect more aggressive monetary policy easing due to factors such as the need to reduce the value of the Australian dollar. They note that banks in particular will be adversely affected by a much lower cash rate, although there is likely to be a minimal impact on consumer stocks.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Overvalued Aussie dollar could dive below US50c, warns ANZ

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 26-May-16

The Australian dollar is currently trading above $US0.71, but Daniel Been of the ANZ Bank warns that it could potentially test the $US0.50 level. While the currency has shed 35 per cent against its US counterpart over the last five years, Been says its continued resilience can be partly attributed to Australia’s "AAA" credit rating, which has led to the dollar being regarded as a safe-haven currency. He notes that factors such as Australia’s current account deficit and high government debt would not usually result in such strong support for the currency.

CORPORATES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, STRATTON STREET CAPITAL LLP, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Flight Centre slides as brokers cut forecasts

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Original article by Jamie Freed
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 25-May-16

Shares in Flight Centre Travel Group have shed 13.5 per cent in two trading sessions, in the wake of an earnings downgrade. The stock closed five per cent lower at $A31.88 on 24 May 2016. Deutsche Bank has reduced its 12-month share price target by 25 per cent to $A36, while Bell Potter’s target price has been slashed by 12 per cent to $A35.70. Deutsche has also reduced its recommendation on the stock from "buy" to "hold".

CORPORATES
FLIGHT CENTRE TRAVEL GROUP LIMITED – ASX FLT, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, BELL POTTER SECURITIES LIMITED, MACQUARIE EQUITIES LIMITED, AUNT BETTY

Developers risk $100k loss on each apartment: report

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Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 37 : 24-May-16

Secret Agent director Paul Osborne notes that there is growing concern among apartment developers that some buyers will default prior to settlement. He says this has been prompted by moves by the banks to restrict lending to offshore property investors. Secret Agent, a buyers’ advocate firm, estimates that an off-the-plan developer could lose more than $A100,000 on a two-bedroom apartment in Melbourne if the buyer defaults.

CORPORATES
SECRET AGENT PROPERTY SERVICES, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, CBRE PTY LTD, OLIVER HUME REAL ESTATE GROUP PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Good Guys sees earnings surge if IPO proceeds

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 24-May-16

Consumer electronics retailer The Good Guys has appointed three lead managers to handle a potential IPO, which is expected to raise up to $A900m. However, chairman Andrew Muir is retaining options such as a trade sale. The Good Guys boasts 100 stores, and Muir aims to complete the purchase of 56 joint venture stores by the end of 2015-16. The group has forecast pro forma EBITDA of $A85m for the financial year.

CORPORATES
THE GOOD GUYS, THE MUIR ELECTRICAL COMPANY PTY LTD, JJB SPORTS, STEINHOFF INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BAIN CAPITAL LLC, TPG CAPITAL LP, KKR AND COMPANY LP

Flat outlook for Coca-Cola Amatil puts doubt on growth

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 & 26 : 19-May-16

Shares in Coca-Cola Amatil closed $A0.04 lower at $A8.99 on 18 May 2016, following the group’s annual meeting. CEO Alison Watkins is aiming for earnings per share growth of five per cent in the near-term, but says the bottler may not necessarily meet this target in 2016. However, she expects the group to achieve earnings growth in the year to December. Analysts have forecast underlying profit growth of 3.6 per cent and growth in sales of 2.7 per cent for 2016.

CORPORATES
COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED – ASX CCL, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, PEPSICO AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, SCHWEPPES AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Cost focus puts BHP on track to raise dividend

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 18-May-16

Credit Suisse has upgraded its underlying earnings forecast for BHP Billiton in 2015-16 by 3.5 per cent to $A12bn, in response to the resources giant’s revised production costs for commodities such as iron ore and coal. Credit Suisse also suggests that BHP could lift its 2015-16 dividend by 10.8 per cent to $A0.25 per share. The firm has lifted its share price target for BHP stock from $A20 to $A21.5.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Company tax drop will pay off, says McKibbin

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Original article by Ben Potter
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 13-May-16

Prominent economist Warwick McKibbin has urged the Coalition to proceed with its proposed reduction in the company tax rate despite its high cost. The policy is estimated to cost $A48 billion over 10 years but McKibbin says it will add $A160 billion to GDP in the long-term. He disagrees with the assessment of the policy’s future benefits by Victoria University’s Janine Dixon, who calculated that a company tax cut would increase GDP while reducing gross national product by between $A800 and $A2,000 per capita.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, VICTORIA UNIVERSITY. CENTRE OF POLICY STUDIES

Stan is on ‘clear path to profitability’

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Original article by Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 45 : 12-May-16

Nine Entertainment CEO Hugh Marks and Fairfax Media CEO Greg Hywood are upbeat about the outlook for their subscription video-on-demand joint venture, Stan. Marks says Stan could gain a 25 per cent share of the SVOD market, and forecasts that there will be an average of one SVOD service in each Australian household within five years. The joint venture partners expect Stan’s active customer base to top 500,000 in May 2016, and Marks notes that the conversion rate to paid subscriptions is between 70-85 per cent.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, PRESTO ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, SUPREME COURT OF NEW SOUTH WALES