BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Netflix streams ahead of the rest

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Original article by Paul Smith
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 27-Jun-16

Research by Telsyte has concluded that Australia will boast 2.7 million active online streaming video subscriptions by the end of June 2016, including 1.9 million paid subscriptions. The number of paid subscriptions is expected to rise to 4.1 million by mid-2019, based on current growth rates. Meanwhile, Telsyte MD Foad Fadaghi forecasts that the pay-TV sector will record compound annual growth rate of less than four per cent over the next four years.

CORPORATES
TELSYTE PTY LTD, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, PRESTO ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, QUICKFLIX LIMITED – ASX QFX, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, AMAZON PRIME, AUSTRALIAN FOOTBALL LEAGUE, NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION, ULTIMATE FIGHTING CHAMPIONSHIP

Ten deal opens board seat to Gordon

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Original article by Jake Mitchell
The Australian – Page: 23 : 27-Jun-16

The affiliation agreement with Bruce Gordon’s WIN Corporation may prompt Ten Network to offer a board seat to the billionaire. WIN CEO Andrew Lancaster is expected to become Gordon’s representative on the Ten board. Ten had previously declined to give Gordon board representation due to conflict of interests concerns, as he is a major shareholder in both Ten and Nine Entertainment Company. WIN’s content supply agreement with Ten commences on 1 July 2016.

CORPORATES
TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS

Gearing proposal won’t hit renters

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Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 36 : 23-Jun-16

Research suggests that the Australian Labor Party’s proposal to impose restrictions on negative gearing would have limited impact on rents. A study conducted by SQM Research suggests that rents would remain largely unchanged for the next few years, due to extra supply. SQM Research MD Louis Christopher calculated that the proposed policy would result in a rise of 1.2 percentage points in average rental yields. An adjustment of either rents rising or prices falling would happen only after four years of the new rules being in operation.

CORPORATES
SQM RESEARCH PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY

Rio Tinto spin-off not likely

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 & 22 : 23-Jun-16

Paul Gait of Alliance Bernstein estimates that Rio Tinto’s newly-created energy and minerals division could be worth $US5.8bn to $US9.2 billion if it was spun off. He says Rio’s restructuring could indicate that it is considering a demerger. The energy and minerals division will comprise assets such as coal, uranium and titanium projects, plus Rio’s iron ore mines in Canada. Peter O’Connor of Shaw & Partners has downplayed the prospects of a demerger, and suggests that Rio is more likely to sell its Queensland metallurgical coal mines in the near-term.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN HOLDING LP, SHAW AND PARTNERS LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, MACQUARIE SECURITIES PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, BARCLAYS BANK PLC

Gold deals tipped to heat up in West Africa

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 21-Jun-16

Shares in Australian-listed Gryphon Minerals finished 22.2 per cent higher at $A0.165 on 20 June 2016, in response to a takover bid from Teranga Gold. Both companies have gold projects in West Africa, and Scott Williamson of Hartleys anticipates further consolidation among gold players with a presence in the region. Duncan Hughes of Somers & Partners expects North American miners in particular to target West Africa-focused Australian gold producers.

CORPORATES
GRYPHON MINERALS LIMITED – ASX GRY, TERANGA GOLD CORPORATION – ASX TGZ, HARTLEYS LIMITED, SOMERS AND PARTNERS PTY LTD, PERSEUS MINING LIMITED – ASX PRU, AMARA MINING, ENDEAVOUR MINING CORPORATION, TRUE GOLD MINING, RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED – ASX RSG, WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX WAF, CARDINAL RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX CDV

After 50 years, Exxon and BHP quietly pull plug on Bass Strait oil

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 26 : 15-Jun-16

Oil output in Bass Strait has fallen to around 40,000 barrels a day, compared with 500,000 a day when production was at its peak. ExxonMobil is believed to be seeking to offload a number of production licences in Bass Strait, which has yielded more than four billion barrels of oil for the group since it established a joint venture with BHP Billiton in the 1960s. The Bass Strait oilfields’ reserves are rapidly being exhausted, although the region holds considerable gas reserves.

CORPORATES
EXXONMOBIL CORPORATION, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SCHLUMBERGER LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Mining capex slump ‘only half finished’

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Original article by Mark Mulligan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 31 : 14-Jun-16

National Australia Bank notes that capital expenditure in the mining sector has fallen to around 4.5 per cent of GDP, compared with eight per cent at the height of the resources boom. The bank expects capex to reach a low of just 1.5 per cent of GDP by 2018. NAB also notes that the downturn in employment in the mining sector has been slower than anticipated, although this is expected to gather pace in coming years with the loss of a net 50,000 by 2019.

CORPORATES
NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Gold’s M&A to scale down as sales dry up

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Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 20 : 9-Jun-16

Evolution Mining and Northern Star Resources are among the mid-tier gold producers that have benefited from the asset sales programs of larger global rivals in recent years. Evolution chairman Jake Klein cautions that future opportunities for acquisitions in the sector will become limited, with fewer large projects likely to be put up for sale. He says the focus is likely to shift to exploration and development, and he has called for greater collaboration between mid-tier and small gold miners.

CORPORATES
EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED – ASX EVN, NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED – ASX NST, OCEANAGOLD CORPORATION – ASX OGC, BARRICK GOLD CORPORATION, NEWMONT MINING CORPORATION, ASSOCIATION OF MINING AND EXPLORATION COMPANIES, INDEPENDENCE GROUP NL – ASX IGO, SIRIUS RESOURCES NL

Aldi closes in on giants as profitability grows

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 31-May-16

UBS has forecast that Aldi will record annual growth in grocery sales in Australia of 15 per cent over the next three years. This is 4-5 times higher than the sector’s growth rate overall. Ben Gilbert of UBS forecasts that Aldi’s share of the national grocery market will exceed 10 per cent by 2019-20, compared with about seven per cent at present. He believes that the discount grocery chain will soon reach a "tipping point" in terms of its share of consumers’ main grocery shop.

CORPORATES
ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, LIDL GMBH & CO KG

M&A won’t solve BHP’s growth questions

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Original article by James Thomson
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 29 : 31-May-16

Citi analyst Clarke Wilkins notes that BHP Billiton has performed poorly in terms of mergers and acquisitions in recent years, and its high level of debt is likely to rule out acquisitions in the next several years. Wilkins adds that there is a dearth of suitable acquisitions at present, particularly in the copper and oil sectors, and he suggests that the resources giant could instead consider asset sales. He identifies BHP’s petroleum division as a potential candidate for asset sales.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, POTASH CORPORATION OF SASKATCHEWAN INCORPORATED, GLENCORE PLC, SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32