BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Developers risk $100k loss on each apartment: report

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Larry Schlesinger
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 37 : 24-May-16

Secret Agent director Paul Osborne notes that there is growing concern among apartment developers that some buyers will default prior to settlement. He says this has been prompted by moves by the banks to restrict lending to offshore property investors. Secret Agent, a buyers’ advocate firm, estimates that an off-the-plan developer could lose more than $A100,000 on a two-bedroom apartment in Melbourne if the buyer defaults.

CORPORATES
SECRET AGENT PROPERTY SERVICES, MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED – ASX MBL, CBRE PTY LTD, OLIVER HUME REAL ESTATE GROUP PTY LTD, CORELOGIC AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Good Guys sees earnings surge if IPO proceeds

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 24-May-16

Consumer electronics retailer The Good Guys has appointed three lead managers to handle a potential IPO, which is expected to raise up to $A900m. However, chairman Andrew Muir is retaining options such as a trade sale. The Good Guys boasts 100 stores, and Muir aims to complete the purchase of 56 joint venture stores by the end of 2015-16. The group has forecast pro forma EBITDA of $A85m for the financial year.

CORPORATES
THE GOOD GUYS, THE MUIR ELECTRICAL COMPANY PTY LTD, JJB SPORTS, STEINHOFF INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED, HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX HVN, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BAIN CAPITAL LLC, TPG CAPITAL LP, KKR AND COMPANY LP

Flat outlook for Coca-Cola Amatil puts doubt on growth

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 21 & 26 : 19-May-16

Shares in Coca-Cola Amatil closed $A0.04 lower at $A8.99 on 18 May 2016, following the group’s annual meeting. CEO Alison Watkins is aiming for earnings per share growth of five per cent in the near-term, but says the bottler may not necessarily meet this target in 2016. However, she expects the group to achieve earnings growth in the year to December. Analysts have forecast underlying profit growth of 3.6 per cent and growth in sales of 2.7 per cent for 2016.

CORPORATES
COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED – ASX CCL, ARNHEM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, PEPSICO AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, SCHWEPPES AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF STATISTICS

Cost focus puts BHP on track to raise dividend

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Tess Ingram
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 18-May-16

Credit Suisse has upgraded its underlying earnings forecast for BHP Billiton in 2015-16 by 3.5 per cent to $A12bn, in response to the resources giant’s revised production costs for commodities such as iron ore and coal. Credit Suisse also suggests that BHP could lift its 2015-16 dividend by 10.8 per cent to $A0.25 per share. The firm has lifted its share price target for BHP stock from $A20 to $A21.5.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Company tax drop will pay off, says McKibbin

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Ben Potter
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 7 : 13-May-16

Prominent economist Warwick McKibbin has urged the Coalition to proceed with its proposed reduction in the company tax rate despite its high cost. The policy is estimated to cost $A48 billion over 10 years but McKibbin says it will add $A160 billion to GDP in the long-term. He disagrees with the assessment of the policy’s future benefits by Victoria University’s Janine Dixon, who calculated that a company tax cut would increase GDP while reducing gross national product by between $A800 and $A2,000 per capita.

CORPORATES
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN LABOR PARTY, VICTORIA UNIVERSITY. CENTRE OF POLICY STUDIES

Stan is on ‘clear path to profitability’

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Dominic White
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 45 : 12-May-16

Nine Entertainment CEO Hugh Marks and Fairfax Media CEO Greg Hywood are upbeat about the outlook for their subscription video-on-demand joint venture, Stan. Marks says Stan could gain a 25 per cent share of the SVOD market, and forecasts that there will be an average of one SVOD service in each Australian household within five years. The joint venture partners expect Stan’s active customer base to top 500,000 in May 2016, and Marks notes that the conversion rate to paid subscriptions is between 70-85 per cent.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, STAN ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, NETFLIX INCORPORATED, PRESTO ENTERTAINMENT PTY LTD, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, FOXTEL MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, SEVEN NETWORK LIMITED, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, SUPREME COURT OF NEW SOUTH WALES

‘Fairfax news business can survive’

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 11-May-16

Fairfax Media CEO Greg Hywood has stressed that the group is still primarily a media company rather than a digital real estate business. He is also confident that Fairfax’s news operations would be able to survive without the revenue contribution of the Domain property division. Fairfax’s revenue from its publishing operations has fallen by six per cent so far in the second half of 2015-16, while Domain’s revenue has grown by nine per cent.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, DOMAIN.COM.AU, THE NEWSPAPER WORKS LIMITED, NEWSMEDIAWORKS, SMI MEDIA INCORPORATED, NEWS CORP AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, NEWS CORPORATION – ASX NWS, SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, APN NEWS AND MEDIA LIMITED – ASX APN, PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS AUSTRALIA (INTERNATIONAL) PTY LTD

Rates cut, fiscal plan keep real estate ticking

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Bleby
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 6 : 5-May-16

Angus Raine, the executive chairman of Raine & Horne, says the Reserve Bank’s move to reduce the cash rate to 1.75 per cent should attract first-time buyers back to the property market. Most experts do not expect the rate cut and the Australian Government’s May 2016 Budget to have much impact on activity in the residential market, but some suggest that the new rules on superannuation fund balance transfers will prompt increased demand for lower-priced commercial properties.

CORPORATES
RAINE AND HORNE PTY LTD, RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA, CBRE PTY LTD, CENTURY 21 REAL ESTATE, RAY WHITE REAL ESTATE, SECRET AGENT PROPERTY SERVICES

Woolies hit by ratings downgrade

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 & 32 : 5-May-16

Standard & Poor’s has reduced the long-term credit rating of Woolworths from "BBB+" to " BBB". S&P had previously downgraded the Australian retail giant’s credit rating in August 2015. Rival ratings agency Moody’s will also review its "Baa2" rating on the stock, having downgraded it from "Baa1" in March 2016. The bearish sentiment follows Woolworths’ disappointing financial results for the March quarter. Analysts in turn have reduced their earnings forecasts for 2016 and 2017.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, JP MORGAN AUSTRALIA LIMITED, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, ALDI STORES SUPERMARKETS PTY LTD, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Warning over Peabody’s local mines

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 3-May-16

The auditor’s report in the latest financial accounts of Peabody Energy Australia Coal warns of doubts as to whether it can continue as a going concern. Its US-based parent, Peabody Energy Corporation, recently filed for bankruptcy protection with debts of $US6.3bn. The Australian business is not subject to the bankruptcy filing, but its financial accounts note that a $US250m inter-company loan facility may not be sufficient for all of Peabody Energy Australia’s cash outflows.

CORPORATES
PEABODY ENERGY AUSTRALIA COAL PTY LTD, PEABODY ENERGY CORPORATION, ERNST AND YOUNG, EXCEL COAL LIMITED, MACARTHUR COAL LIMITED, AUSTRALIAN SECURITIES AND INVESTMENTS COMMISSION