BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Fortescue insists value trumps volume

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 14-Apr-16

Fortescue Metals Group has advised that its iron ore shipments rose by four per cent year-on-year in the March 2016 quarter, to 42 million tonnes. Fortescue has indicated that favourable weather conditions in the June quarter could allow the group to exceed its guidance of 165 million tonnes for 2015-16. The iron ore miner’s net debt fell by $A200m to $A5.9bn during the March quarter, while its cash costs were reduced by six per cent.

CORPORATES
FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA

Yahoo US deal may see Seven exit JV

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Darren Davidson
The Australian – Page: 21 : 13-Apr-16

There has been speculation that Australian-listed Seven West Media could seek to exit the Yahoo!7 joint venture if US internet giant Yahoo! divests its news and media assets. The joint venture boated revenue of $A99.6m in 2014-15, and Seven receives 50 per cent of Yahoo!7’s profits. Morgan Stanley recently forecast that global internet groups such as Google and Facebook will account for between $A4bn and $A5bn worth of advertising revenue in 2016.

CORPORATES
SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED – ASX SWM, YAHOO!7 COMMUNICATIONS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, YAHOO! INCORPORATED, MORGAN STANLEY AND COMPANY INCORPORATED, GOOGLE INCORPORATED, FACEBOOK INCORPORATED, YOUTUBE INCORPORATED, PACIFIC MAGAZINES PTY LTD, DAILY MAIL AND GENERAL TRUST PLC, DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA, NINE NETWORK AUSTRALIA LIMITED, NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, VIACOM INCORPORATED, IAC/INTERACTIVECORP, CBS CORPORATION

Volatile equities to keep insurers’ dividends low

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Michael Rodman
The Australian – Page: 31 : 7-Apr-16

Income from their investment portfolios generates a significant proportion of Australian-listed insurance companies’ earnings. Andrew Adams of Credit Suisse says financial market volatility during the March 2016 quarter will in turn put downward pressure on their dividend payouts. Insurance Australia Group is likely to be hardest hit by the market volatility. Adams has scaled back his 2015-16 profit forecast for the group from $A920m to $A830m.

CORPORATES
CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED – ASX QBE, SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED – ASX SUN, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 ACCUMULATION INDEX

Go for gold with copper, Rio urged

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 19 : 6-Apr-16

Bernstein analyst Paul Gait says Rio Tinto should capitalise on the low price of copper and expectations of a supply deficit to pursue acquisitions in the sector. Gait has suggested that Freeport-McMoRan’s Cerro Verde copper mine in Peru should be at the top of the list of potential acquisitions when Jean-Sebastien Jacques succeeds Sam Walsh as CEO. Gait notes that Cerro Verde is a much higher-quality asset than some copper mines that have been sold recently.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BERNSTEIN AND ASSOCIATES, FREEPORT-McMORAN COPPER AND GOLD INCORPORATED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, WOOD MACKENZIE, MMG LIMITED – ASX MMG, ANTOFAGASTA PLC, SUMITOMO CORPORATION, COMPANIA DE MINAS BUENAVENTURA SA, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, AUDLEY CAPITAL, FIRST QUANTUM MINERALS LIMITED, BOLIDEN MINERAL AB

Marks’ roadshow moves suggest Nine contemplating a merger with Southern Cross

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jake Mitchell
The Australian – Page: 23 : 4-Apr-16

A merger between Nine Entertainment Company and regional broadcaster Southern Cross Media Group is widely tipped if cross-media ownership reforms proceed. Nine CEO Hugh Marks indicated in March 2016 that the group had no plans to resume merger discussions. However, he is believed to have told investors that synergies from a merger with Southern Cross could be worth about $A90m annually.

CORPORATES
NINE ENTERTAINMENT COMPANY HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX NEC, SOUTHERN CROSS MEDIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX SXL, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, WIN CORPORATION PTY LTD, NBN TELEVISION, RGM ARTISTS PTY LTD, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF COMMUNICATIONS AND THE ARTS, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED

Short sellers look to big miners

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Peter Ker, Thomas Hounslow
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 27 : 1-Apr-16

The recent rise in short positions in Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Glencore and Anglo American suggests that many investors do not believe that a rally in commodity prices will last. For Rio Tinto, the percentage of its Australian shares sold short in mid-February 2016 was the highest since late December 2012. According to Macquarie Securities, the prices of metal and bulk commodities will continue to be under pressure because of over-capacity.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, GLENCORE PLC, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, MACQUARIE SECURITIES PTY LTD

Global funds take aim at media

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Jake Mitchell
The Australian – Page: 19 & 22 : 1-Apr-16

UBS’s Justin Dwyer says the Australian Government’s proposed changes to cross-media ownership laws may prompt renewed interest in local media companies among their offshore peers and private equity firms. He suggests that companies which made offers to buy the Ten Network in 2015 could be among the potential suitors. Meanwhile, Greg Peirce of UBS says the media industry’s "structural challenges" may have more influence on merger activity in the sector than government reforms.

CORPORATES
UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, TEN NETWORK HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TEN, PROVIDENCE EQUITY PARTNERS INCORPORATED, DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS INCORPORATED, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, DICK SMITH HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX DSH, AUSTRALIA. SENATE STANDING COMMITTEE ON ENVIRONMENT, COMMUNICATIONS, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND THE ARTS, THOMSON REUTERS PLC

Miners feel pinch of dollar, oil switch

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 20 : 23-Mar-16

The Australian dollar has risen by about 10 per cent so far in 2016. This has offset the benefits of the rebound in the prices of key resources commodities, which are typically priced in US dollars. Mining companies have also been hit by increased fuel costs due to the rally in the crude oil price. Tom Price of Morgan Stanley says the rise in the value of the currency and the crude oil price may prompt more resources groups to reduce production or mothball mines.

CORPORATES
MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG

Customers empty wallets in top malls

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Robert Harley
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 18-Mar-16

Australian consumers like to shop in big shopping centres. The 2015 annual "Big Guns" survey by "Shopping Centre News" shows that Chadstone in Melbourne recorded retail spending of more than $A1.4 billion in 2015. Michael Lloyd, of "Shopping Centre News", expects all the biggest 10 centres to generate turnover in excess of $A1 billion by 2020.

CORPORATES
GANDEL GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED, VICINITY CENTRES – ASX VCX, SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD

Miners won’t take pedal off the metal

roymorgansocial Leave a comment

Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 14-Mar-16

The iron ore price has risen by about 65 per cent so far in 2016, although it has retreated from the year-to-date high of more than $US63 per tonne. Meanwhile, Paul Young of Deutsche Bank expects Rio Tinto’s iron ore output in the Pilbara to top 360 million tonnes in 2017, despite the miner’s own guidance of 350 million tonnes. There are also expectations that production at the Samarco joint venture between BHP Billiton and Vale will resume before the end of the 2016, while production at the Roy Hill iron ore project may increase.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, VALE SA, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA, ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, CHINA. NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS, KATANA ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED