BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

M&A set to throw off the shackles

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Original article by Michael Bennet
The Australian – Page: 17 : 22-Feb-16

Data from Thomson Reuters shows that $US5.4bn ($A7.5bn) worth of mergers and acquisitions have been announced in Australia so far in 2016, compared with $US20.3bn at the same time in 2015. However, Herbert Smith Freehills partner Tony Damian expects M&A activity to improve, noting that a number of deals are in the pipeline. Freehills expects an increase in takeover activity in sectors such as financial services and resources. It also forecasts that private equity firms will be more active.

CORPORATES
THOMSON REUTERS PLC, HERBERT SMITH FREEHILLS PTY LTD, ASCIANO LIMITED – ASX AIO, NATIONAL AUSTRALIA BANK LIMITED – ASX NAB, CLYDESDALE BANK PLC, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, OZFOREX GROUP LIMITED – ASX OFX, GREENCROSS LIMITED – ASX GXL, WESTERN UNITED LIMITED, TPG CAPITAL LP, THE CARLYLE GROUP, JAPAN POST, TOLL HOLDINGS LIMITED

BHP urged to revive the faith

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Age – Page: 21 : 22-Feb-16

The 2015-16 interim financial results of BHP Billiton are likely to be closely scrutinised by investors. Pengana Capital’s Tim Schroeders says the resources group needs to restore investors’ faith and outline its strategy to achieve future growth. He believes that BHP will abandon its progressive dividend policy in favour of a payout ratio, while Paul McTaggart of Credit Suisse anticipates a reduction in capital expenditure over the next two years.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, PENGANA CAPITAL LIMITED, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, BLOOMBERG LP, VUMA CONSENSUS, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, SAMARCO MINERACAO SA

Hywood delivers frank verdict on future of newspapers

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Original article by Dominic White
The Age – Page: 27 : 22-Feb-16

Fairfax Media CEO Greg Hywood says the group is committed to "quality journalism", but concedes that this may not necessarily include print newspapers in the future. However, he has downplayed suggestions that Fairfax may discontinue its print editions in the near-term, noting that a rival media group has been forecasting this for several years. Fairfax recently revealed plans for an editorial restructuring.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, LIBERAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA, NATIONAL PARTY OF AUSTRALIA

Battery boom heats lithium gains for Australian miners

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Original article by David Stringer, Martin Ritchie
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 28 : 19-Feb-16

Shares in Australian-listed lithium miners have rallied on the strength of the rising price of lithium carbonate and growing demand for lithium ion batteries. General Mining Corporation’s share price has risen by 1,000 per cent over the last 12 months, while Pilbara Minerals has gained about 1,200 per cent since mid-2014. Citigroup expects both demand for lithium carbonate and the price of the commodity to keep rising beyond 2016.

CORPORATES
GENERAL MINING CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX GMM, PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED – ASX FTN, CITIGROUP INCORPORATED, CHENGDU TIANQI INDUSTRY (GROUP) COMPANY LIMITED, ALBERMARLE CORPORATION, TESLA MOTORS INCORPORATED, NISSAN MOTOR COMPANY LIMITED, RENAULT AUTOMATION SA, VOLKSWAGEN AG, AUDI AG, BENCHMARK MINERAL INTELLIGENCE, NAVIGANT CONSULTING PTY LTD

Fast-food group tops recipe with big result

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Original article by Catie Low
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 23 : 18-Feb-16

Domino’s Pizza Enterprises has posted a 2015-16 interim net profit of $A43.3m, which is 49 per cent higher than previously. Revenue rose by 30 per cent to $A445.3m. The group forecasts a 35 per cent rise in both earnings and net profit for the full year. Meanwhile, Domino’s intends to increase its focus on the use of digital technology in its home delivery service, and CEO Don Meij says such technology could make drive-through services obsolete.

CORPORATES
DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, BAILLIEU HOLST LIMITED, UBER TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED, RED ROOSTER FOODS, McDONALD’S AUSTRALIA LIMITED, DELIVEROO

Coates plans board shake-up at Santos

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Original article by Damon Kitney, Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 17 & 18 : 15-Feb-16

Oil and gas producer Santos has indicated that its 2015 financial results could include write-downs of up to $A3bn. Meanwhile, chairman Peter Coates has stressed the need for board renewal, noting that some directors have been on the board for a long time. However, he says there are no plans for further board changes in 2016, although there has been speculation that several could step down before the end of the year. Coates has also identified recruiting his eventual successor as a priority.

CORPORATES
SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, AGL ENERGY LIMITED – ASX AGL, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, SCHLUMBERGER LIMITED, ASX LIMITED – ASX ASX, BLUESCOPE STEEL LIMITED – ASX BSL, ENERGYAUSTRALIA PTY LTD, COCHLEAR LIMITED – ASX COH, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, CGI GLASS LEWIS PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, CONOCOPHILLIPS

Rio Tinto’s Simandou dream evaporates

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 15-Feb-16

The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea has a book value of $US10bn on Rio Tinto’s accounts, although it is worth less than this given the current price of the steel input. Rio’s 2015-16 full-year results included a $US2bn writedown on the project, which is likely to cost about $US20bn ($A28bn) to develop. While Rio Tinto is scheduled to release a feasibility study on the project, some analysts do not expect Simandou to proceed for at least a decade.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, DEUTSCHE BANK AG, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED, ARGO INVESTMENTS LIMITED – ASX ARG, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, VALE SA, WORLD BANK, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION

Advertisers see better times for TV sector

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Original article by Max Mason
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 15-Feb-16

A new report from media-buying agency Starcom Mediavest shows that advertisers are upbeat about the outlook for the Australian ad market. They expect advertising expenditure to rise by 2.8 per cent in 2016, while media owners forecast growth of 2.6 per cent. However, advertisers expect a 2.6 per cent decline in free-to-air TV advertising expenditure in 2016, although digital TV advertising is tipped to record double-digit growth in 2018 as more consumers view content online.

CORPORATES
STARCOM MEDIAVEST GROUP, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, WALT DISNEY COMPANY

Fairfax modelled a future with no newspapers and 40pc fewer journos

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Original article by Jake Mitchell
The Australian – Page: 1 & 2 : 15-Feb-16

Fairfax Media is tipped to reveal a significant restructuring program in 2016, aimed at reducing costs. Internal documents produced in early 2013 estimate that the media group could shed 205 full-time members of its editorial team by discontinuing the print editions of "The Age" and "The Sydney Morning Herald". Meanwhile, publishing print editions of these mastheads only on Saturdays would enable Fairfax to cut 150 editorial positions.

CORPORATES
FAIRFAX MEDIA LIMITED – ASX FXJ, PAGEMASTERS PTY LTD, AUDIT BUREAU OF CIRCULATIONS

Mirvac points to issues across both sectors

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Original article by Matthew Cranston
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 33 : 12-Feb-16

Mirvac Group has posted a 2015-16 interim net profit of $A472.7m, which is 69 per cent higher than previously. The result was bolstered by a $A289.3m rise in the value of the group’s portfolio of investment properties. Mirvac still expects to pay a full-year distribution of between $A0.097 and $A0.099 per stapled security. Meanwhile, CEO Susan Lloyd-Hurwitz forecasts that growth in residential property prices will slow and sales volumes will fall.

CORPORATES
MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, FOLKESTONE MAXIM ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED