BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

RBC picks BHP Billiton over Rio Tinto

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 30 : 11-Feb-16

Paul Hissey of RBC Capital has a share price target of $A15 on BHP Billiton, whose shares are trading at around $A15.67 at present. The analyst also has a "sector perform" rating on the resources giant, and forecasts that BHP will reduce its dividend by 75 per cent when its 2015-16 interim results are released later in February 2016. Meanwhile, Hissey has a share price target of $A37 and an "underperform" rating on Rio Tinto, whose stock is trading at $A41.53.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, GLENCORE PLC

JB Hi-Fi grabs bigger share after Dick Smith’s demise

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Original article by Sue Mitchell
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 & 20 : 9-Feb-16

Listed consumer electronics retailer JB Hi-Fi has posted a 2015-16 interim net profit of $A95.2m, which is 7.5 per cent higher than previously. Sales were 7.7 per cent higher at $A2.12bn, while same-store sales rose by 5.2 per cent. CEO Richard Murray has forecast that the group’s full-year profit will be within the range of $A143m to $A147m, with expectations that sales will total $A3.9bn. Shareholders will receive an interim dividend of $A0.63 per share.

CORPORATES
JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, DICK SMITH HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX DSH, PLATYPUS ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Rio set to slash share dividend payout

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 18 : 8-Feb-16

Most analysts expect Rio Tinto’s full-year dividend for 2015 to be $US2.21 per share, compared with $US2.15 previously. However, there is growing speculation that Rio will review its progressive dividend policy after the release of its full-year results on 11 February 2016. BHP Billiton is also widely tipped to abandon its progressive dividend policy, and Pengana Capital’s Tim Schroeders notes that there would be little benefit for Rio in being the only large miner to retain this policy.

CORPORATES
RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, PENGANA CAPITAL LIMITED, VALE SA, GLENCORE PLC, ANGLO AMERICAN PLC, AUSTRALIAN FOUNDATION INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED – ASX AFI, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, ALCAN INCORPORATED, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD, CITIGROUP PTY LTD

Less popular surgery could hurt

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Original article by Tim Binsted
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 6 : 4-Feb-16

Figures from Medicare indicate a decline in the growth rate of certain medical procedures. The number of surgical, obstetric and diagnostic procedures increased by 2.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2015, compared with the four-year average growth rate of 5.1 per cent. This trend may affect investors’ confidence in Ramsay Health Care and Healthscope.

CORPORATES
RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX RHC, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, UNITING CARE, MACQUARIE SECURITIES PTY LTD, ST JOHN OF GOD HEALTH CARE INCORPORATED, AUSTRALIA. DEPT OF HUMAN SERVICES. MEDICARE AUSTRALIA

Blackstone measures Masters as retailers weigh up sites

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Original article by Catie Low
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 : 4-Feb-16

US private equity firm Blackstone Group has declined to comment on speculation that it may seek to acquire either the Masters Home Improvement business itself or its portfolio of stores. Meanwhile, Costco and Ikea are among the big-box retailers that are believed to be considering taking over some of the Masters stores, while Bunnings could potentially acquire about 25 outlets. David Errington of Bank of America Merrill Lynch estimates that Woolworths could recover around $A1bn from divesting its home improvement assets.

CORPORATES
WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, MASTERS HOME IMPROVEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, THE BLACKSTONE GROUP LP, COSTCO WHOLESALE AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, IKEA TRADING PTY LTD, SPOTLIGHT GROUP HOLDINGS PTY LTD, SPOTLIGHT STORES PTY LTD, ANACONDA STORES PTY LTD, BUNNINGS GROUP LIMITED, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, HOME TIMBER AND HARDWARE, METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, COLES SUPERMARKETS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, LOWE’S COMPANIES INCORPORATED, TPG CAPITAL LP, BIG W DISCOUNT STORES, CROWN RESORTS LIMITED – ASX CWN, BLACKSTONE REAL ESTATE ADVISORS LLC

Rich BHP dividends face chop

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Original article by Amanda Saunders
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 1 & 8 : 3-Feb-16

Shares in BHP Billiton closed 2.2 per cent lower at $A14.92 on 2 February 2016, after Standard & Poor’s reduced its credit rating from "A+" to "A". The ratings agency warned of the potential for a further downgrade if BHP retains its progressive dividend policy amid a downturn in commodity prices. Aberdeen Asset Management’s John Manning expects BHP to adopt a dividend payout ratio, while some observers forecast that its 2015-16 interim dividend will be reduced by 50 per cent to $US0.31 per share.

CORPORATES
BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, STANDARD AND POOR’S CORPORATION, ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT LIMITED, ARGO INVESTMENTS LIMITED – ASX ARG, AUSTRALIAN FOUNDATION INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED – ASX AFI, BLACKROCK INCORPORATED, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO

Iron ore price descends towards Roy Hill’s break-even threshold

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 2-Feb-16

POSCO has estimated that the Roy Hill iron ore project’s break-even price is currently in the low $US40 per tonne range. The South Korean steel producer, which has a 12.5 per cent stake in the project, expects Roy Hill’s marginal cost of production to fall to the mid-$US30/per tonne range when it reaches full capacity in 2017. The benchmark iron ore price has fallen below $US42/per tonne in early February 2016. Fortescue Metals Group’s break-even price is said to be between $US28 and $US32 per tonne.

CORPORATES
ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, POSCO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, CHINA STEEL CORPORATION, MARUBENI CORPORATION, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Reporting season ups and downs

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 2-Feb-16

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index has shed five per cent so far in 2016, and share price performances are likely to come under scrutiny during the February reporting season. Matt Ross of Goldman Sachs says price-earnings multiples are five per cent lower than they were in the lead-up to the August 2015 reporting season. He adds that growth in earnings-per-share is now at its lowest level since the global financial crisis.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BEGA CHEESE LIMITED – ASX BGA, COLES GROUP LIMITED, MURRAY GOULBURN CO-OPERATIVE COMPANY LIMITED, MG UNIT TRUST – ASX MGC, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, ISENTIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX ISD, RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX RHC, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, CARSALES.COM LIMITED – ASX CAR, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, ARB CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX ARB, TATTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX TTS, QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX QUB, IRESS LIMITED – ASX IRE, PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED – ASX PMV, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, TRADE ME GROUP LIMITED – ASX TME, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, MYOB GROUP LIMITED – ASX MYO, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED – ASX SHV, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED – ASX SHL, VOCUS COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED – ASX VOC, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED – ASX MND

Gorgon to start up – soon

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Original article by Brian Robins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 1-Feb-16

US-based Chevron Corporation has advised that production at the $US54bn ($A76bn) Gorgon LNG project in Western Australia is slated to commence shortly. The first shipment is now expected before the end of the March 2016 quarter, after the initial target of late 2015 was pushed back. Meanwhile, Chevron anticipates that the first shipment from its Wheatstone LNG project will occur by mid-2017.

CORPORATES
CHEVRON CORPORATION, GORGON PTY LTD

Trusts on track for good profit season

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Original article by Nick Lenaghan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 1-Feb-16

The Australian sharemarket shed more than five per cent during January 2016, although the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT index achieved a total return of more than one per cent. Meanwhile, Goodman Group and Vicinity Centres are among the listed property trusts that have reported a rise in the value of their portfolios. Investors will be awaiting the February reporting season, which among other things will show how the trusts’ retail tenants performed during the Christmas sales period.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 A-REIT INDEX, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG, VICINITY CENTRES – ASX VCX, DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP – ASX DXS, SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, PHOENIX PORTFOLIOS PTY LTD, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, INVESTA OFFICE FUND – ASX IOF, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP