BUSINESS FORECASTING – AUSTRALIA

Iron ore price descends towards Roy Hill’s break-even threshold

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Original article by Peter Ker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 2-Feb-16

POSCO has estimated that the Roy Hill iron ore project’s break-even price is currently in the low $US40 per tonne range. The South Korean steel producer, which has a 12.5 per cent stake in the project, expects Roy Hill’s marginal cost of production to fall to the mid-$US30/per tonne range when it reaches full capacity in 2017. The benchmark iron ore price has fallen below $US42/per tonne in early February 2016. Fortescue Metals Group’s break-even price is said to be between $US28 and $US32 per tonne.

CORPORATES
ROY HILL IRON ORE PTY LTD, POSCO, FORTESCUE METALS GROUP LIMITED – ASX FMG, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, RIO TINTO LIMITED – ASX RIO, HANCOCK PROSPECTING PTY LTD, CHINA STEEL CORPORATION, MARUBENI CORPORATION, UBS HOLDINGS PTY LTD

Reporting season ups and downs

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Original article by Philip Baker
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 2-Feb-16

Australia’s benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index has shed five per cent so far in 2016, and share price performances are likely to come under scrutiny during the February reporting season. Matt Ross of Goldman Sachs says price-earnings multiples are five per cent lower than they were in the lead-up to the August 2015 reporting season. He adds that growth in earnings-per-share is now at its lowest level since the global financial crisis.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, GOLDMAN SACHS AND PARTNERS AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, BEGA CHEESE LIMITED – ASX BGA, COLES GROUP LIMITED, MURRAY GOULBURN CO-OPERATIVE COMPANY LIMITED, MG UNIT TRUST – ASX MGC, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, ISENTIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX ISD, RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED – ASX RHC, CSL LIMITED – ASX CSL, CARSALES.COM LIMITED – ASX CAR, SEEK LIMITED – ASX SEK, ARB CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX ARB, TATTS GROUP LIMITED – ASX TTS, QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX QUB, IRESS LIMITED – ASX IRE, PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED – ASX PMV, HEALTHSCOPE LIMITED – ASX HSO, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, TRADE ME GROUP LIMITED – ASX TME, BRAMBLES LIMITED – ASX BXB, MYOB GROUP LIMITED – ASX MYO, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, SELECT HARVESTS LIMITED – ASX SHV, DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED – ASX DMP, JB HI-FI LIMITED – ASX JBH, SONIC HEALTHCARE LIMITED – ASX SHL, VOCUS COMMUNICATIONS LIMITED – ASX VOC, CHALLENGER LIMITED – ASX CGF, MONADELPHOUS GROUP LIMITED – ASX MND

Gorgon to start up – soon

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Original article by Brian Robins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 18 : 1-Feb-16

US-based Chevron Corporation has advised that production at the $US54bn ($A76bn) Gorgon LNG project in Western Australia is slated to commence shortly. The first shipment is now expected before the end of the March 2016 quarter, after the initial target of late 2015 was pushed back. Meanwhile, Chevron anticipates that the first shipment from its Wheatstone LNG project will occur by mid-2017.

CORPORATES
CHEVRON CORPORATION, GORGON PTY LTD

Trusts on track for good profit season

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Original article by Nick Lenaghan
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 32 : 1-Feb-16

The Australian sharemarket shed more than five per cent during January 2016, although the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT index achieved a total return of more than one per cent. Meanwhile, Goodman Group and Vicinity Centres are among the listed property trusts that have reported a rise in the value of their portfolios. Investors will be awaiting the February reporting season, which among other things will show how the trusts’ retail tenants performed during the Christmas sales period.

CORPORATES
STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 A-REIT INDEX, GOODMAN GROUP – ASX GMG, VICINITY CENTRES – ASX VCX, DEXUS PROPERTY GROUP – ASX DXS, SCENTRE GROUP – ASX SCG, WESTFIELD CORPORATION – ASX WFD, PHOENIX PORTFOLIOS PTY LTD, MORNINGSTAR PTY LTD, INVESTA OFFICE FUND – ASX IOF, MIRVAC GROUP – ASX MGR, STOCKLAND – ASX SGP

Small caps tipped to lift tough reporting season

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Original article by Vanessa Desloires
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 13 & 22 : 1-Feb-16

The consensus of analysts is that the Australian sharemarket’s earnings per share will decline by six per cent in the February 2016 reporting season. However, a 45.5 per cent fall in earnings per share is forecast for the resources sector. Donald Williams of Platypus Asset Management is bearish about the outlook for the sector, warning that commodity prices are unlikely to rebound for several years. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley expects stocks outside the top 20 to perform the best.

CORPORATES
PLATYPUS ASSET MANAGEMENT PTY LTD, MORGAN STANLEY AUSTRALIA LIMITED, CITIGROUP PTY LTD, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 INDEX, BENNELONG AUSTRALIAN EQUITY PARTNERS PTY LTD, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF AUSTRALIA – ASX CBA, AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND BANKING GROUP LIMITED – ASX ANZ, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, WORLEYPARSONS LIMITED – ASX WOR, AMCOR LIMITED – ASX AMC, ANSELL LIMITED – ASX ANN, MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED – ASX MQG, COCA-COLA AMATIL LIMITED – ASX CCL, INSURANCE AUSTRALIA GROUP LIMITED – ASX IAG, MANTRA GROUP LIMITED – ASX MTR, AVEO GROUP – ASX AOG, BURSON GROUP LIMITED – ASX BAP, CSG LIMITED – ASX CSV, TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED – ASX TLS, TABCORP HOLDINGS LIMITED – ASX TAH, REA GROUP LIMITED – ASX REA, GENWORTH MORTGAGE INSURANCE AUSTRALIA LIMITED – ASX GMA, UNITED STATES. FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD

Charter Hall’s Southon to go as MD

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Original article by Mercedes Ruehl
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 34 : 29-Jan-16

Some analysts do not expect Charter Hall Group to be significantly affected if co-founder David Southon vacates the role of MD, which he shares with David Harrison. The two executives have been joint MD since 2004, and they are also joint CFO of the Australian-listed property group. While Charter Hall has yet to confirm that Southon will step down, it is believed that he will do so when the group releases its 2015-16 interim financial results in February 2016.

CORPORATES
CHARTER HALL GROUP – ASX CHC, CIMIC GROUP LIMITED – ASX CIM, LEIGHTON PROPERTIES PTY LTD, COLES GROUP LIMITED, RESOLUTION CAPITAL LIMITED, STANDARD AND POOR’S ASX 200 A-REIT INDEX

Investors back bid for Woolworths’ Home

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Original article by Catie Low
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 17 : 28-Jan-16

Allan Gray MD Simon Mawhinney says a merger between Metcash’s Mitre 10 business and the Home Timber & Hardware division of Woolworths could be a good deal if it was secured at an appropriate price. The future of the Home business is uncertain following Woolworths’ decision to exit the ill-fated Masters Home Improvement joint venture. Metcash has been touted as a potential buyer of Home, and it is said to have initiated talks with Woolworths on such a deal in mid-2015.

CORPORATES
METCASH LIMITED – ASX MTS, WOOLWORTHS LIMITED – ASX WOW, MITRE 10 LIMITED, HOME TIMBER AND HARDWARE, MASTERS HOME IMPROVEMENT AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, ALLAN GRAY AUSTRALIA PTY LTD, WESFARMERS LIMITED – ASX WES, BUNNINGS GROUP LIMITED, LUMINIS PARTNERS PTY LTD, DANKS HOLDINGS LIMITED, LOWE’S COMPANIES INCORPORATED, CLSA AUSTRALIA PTY LTD

Moody’s may cut Woodside, Origin ratings

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Original article by Brian Robins
The Australian Financial Review – Page: 15 : 25-Jan-16

Ratings agency Moody’s Investors Service has scaled back its Brent crude oil price assumptions by $US10 per barrel in both 2016 and 2017, to $US33 and $US38 respectively. The firm notes that there is a risk of a further downturn in the crude oil price. Meanwhile, Moody’s has indicated that it expects to complete a review of the credit ratings of Origin Energy and Woodside Petroleum by the end of March, which could potentially result in downgrades.

CORPORATES
MOODY’S INVESTORS SERVICE INCORPORATED, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, SCHLUMBERGER LIMITED

Woodside takes $1.7bn hit as oil prices slump

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Original article by Matt Chambers
The Australian – Page: 17 : 22-Jan-16

Oil and gas producer Woodside Petroleum has reported revenue of $US1.105bn for the December 2015 quarter, which is 37 per cent lower than the same period in 2014. Revenue for the full year also fell by 37 per cent to $US4.5bn, due to the downturn in the crude oil price. Woodside has advised that its full-year accounts will be marred by asset write-downs of up to $US1bn ($A1.2bn). Its shares closed $A0.39 lower at $A25 on 21 January 2016.

CORPORATES
WOODSIDE PETROLEUM LIMITED – ASX WPL, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, SANTOS LIMITED – ASX STO, ORIGIN ENERGY LIMITED – ASX ORG, OIL SEARCH LIMITED – ASX OSH, APACHE CORPORATION, DEUTSCHE BANK AG

South32 cuts its debts further

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Original article by Paul Garvey
The Australian – Page: 18 : 22-Jan-16

South32’s net debt fell to $US115m in the December 2015 quarter, after it repaid $US81 million worth of debt during the period. The BHP Billiton spin-off’s debt had exceeded $US400m at the start of 2015-16, and Paul McTaggart of Credit Suisse forecasts that it will have no debt at the end of the financial year. Meanwhile, South32 has reported that its metallurgical coal output fell by 41 per cent during the second quarter, while manganese production was 37 per cent lower.

CORPORATES
SOUTH32 LIMITED – ASX S32, BHP BILLITON LIMITED – ASX BHP, CREDIT SUISSE (AUSTRALIA) LIMITED